~~~~~The Official 2008 Tampa Bay Rays Discussion Thread~~~~~

[olafberserker]

Early rumors.  Fielder would look good in a Rays uniform as a DH.


http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/features/rumors

[MrFreakinMiyagi]

Early rumors.  Fielder would look good in a Rays uniform as a DH.

Agreed.

[Biggs3535]

Early rumors.  Fielder would look good in a Rays uniform as a DH.

What they rumored to be looking for?

[olafberserker]

Early rumors.? Fielder would look good in a Rays uniform as a DH.

What they rumored to be looking for?

I didn't see that.  It was just some words regarding some bigger name guys.  And no, the Rays' name wasn't mentioned as possible landing places for any of them ... including Holiday.

[olafberserker]

Payroll is scheduled to be at about 50 million next year before Arbitration.  Some things could change obviously.

From draysbay.com:

Preliminary 2009 Rays Payroll
 by R.J. Anderson on Oct 30, 2008 1:39 PM EDT

Pre-arb:

 

Player $           %
Pena 8           16.14
Crawford 8.25 16.64
Percival 4         8.069
Kazmir 6        12.10
Bradford 3.5   7.060
Wheeler 3.2   6.455
Floyd 2.75      5.547
Iwamura 3.25 6.556
Miller 2           4.034
Gomes 1.275 2.572
Shields 1.5    3.025
Price 0.4        0.807
Niemann 0.4 0.807
Balfour 0.5     1.009
Longoria 0.55 1.109
Bartlett 0.4     0.807
Gross 0.4      0.807
Jackson 0.4    0.807
Navarro 0.4    0.807
Upton 0.4      0 .807
Garza 0.4      0.807
Aybar 0.4      0.807
Howell 0.4      0.807
Sonnan. 0.4   0.807
Riggans 0.4   0.807
Total 49.575
 

Notice that was "pre-arb", because Balfour, Bartlett, Gross, Jackson, Gomes, and Navarro are all eligible for arbitration. I'm assuming an increase for each of them, although Gomes could be non-tendered I assume. Here's how I would present the cases FOR each of these players at their arb hearing:

Do note: I'm taking the role of the agents here, therefore my statements are not going to be from the analyst point of view.

Balfour - Amazing ERA/FIP/tRA, one of the 10 best relievers in the league, perhaps the third best reliever in the American league East.

Bartlett - Team MVP (per experts!), defensive wizard.

Gross - Big hits propelled the Rays into the playoffs.

Jackson - Tied for team lead with 14 wins, showed improvement.

Navarro - All star catcher. Case closed.

/Agent speak (although if any agent reading wants help in preparing an arbitration binder...)

I'm not going to do a team perspective on these cases because that's pointless. Simply put, the Rays are going to increase payroll by quite a bit just through their own 25, so without knowing how many season ticket deposits were placed and how much money is in fluxing from the playoff run, I'm guessing the Rays will begin the 2009 season with around 60 million in payroll.

Now, let's get started on that re-sign B.J. Upton fund.

[olafberserker]

A wish list for draysbay.com as well:


Wishlist

With that being said, who should we target in trades and free agency? Here's the (not so short) list of players I've compiled that should provoke interest.

DH

Raul Ibanez

Jason Giambi

Frank Thomas

OFers to platoon with Gross

Kevin Mench

Scott Hairston

Josh Phelps

Gabe Kapler

Nick Swisher

Fernando Perez/Rocco Baldelli

OFers to play full time

Nick Swisher (yeah, both)

Brian Giles

Mike Cameron

Josh Willingham

Corners to replace Hinske

Chad Tracy

Casey Blake

Willy Aybar/Dan Johnson

RPers to pursue

Brian Fuentes

Juan Cruz

Jeremy Affeldt

Brandon Lyon

Chris Sampson

Tom Gordon

Joe Beimel

Dale Thayer/Jeff Niemann/Mitch Talbot/ect.

[Boid Fink]

Tom Gordon sucks.

And coming off an injury, and being older, he will be worth three pennies...

[olafberserker]

agreed.  not my wish list

[olafberserker]

Talks start with Rocco on new contract


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3673841

[olafberserker]

Would Edwin Jackson Work as a Reliever?
 by R.J. Anderson on Oct 30, 2008 9:22 PM EDT

Referencing Nate Silver's prior work on this topic, he found the the best starters-to-relievers transitions had the following traits:

- Higher walk rate.

- Higher strikeout rate.

- Indifference on fly/ground ball tendencies.

- Low IsoP.

Silver found the walk and IsoP qualities the most important. This is good news for Jackson, although his BB totals impressively dropped over one per nine. Jackson also had a lower IsoP than most, although this was more due to a high OBP than a low SLG. Some of the more successful shifters include LaTroy Hawkins and Tom Gordon, let's take a look at how Jackson's numbers compare to them.

Pitcher BB/9 IsoP
Jackson 3.78 0.092
Hawkins 3.09 0.134
Gordon 3.84 0.013
Jimenez 3.92 0.051
Gossage 3.62 0.04
Gagne 2.73 0.132

I was vastly against Edwin Jackson the starter, but call me crazy, I think I'm willing to give Edwin the reliever a shot.

[Bayfisher]

It takes three innings for Jackson to get into a groove.

[STULAAKE]

would you trade Upton to Boston for Papelbon?

[olafberserker]

would you trade Upton to Boston for Papelbon?

What did you hear?

[Biggs3535]

would you trade Upton to Boston for Papelbon?

In a heartbeat.

[olafberserker]

would you trade Upton to Boston for Papelbon?

In a heartbeat.

I think I'd at least have to think about whether I wanted to trade away a 5 tool stud for a closer, but I wouldn't laugh and hang up on Theo either.