http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/02/20/crazy-preseason-prediction-3/3. The Tampa Bay Rays will contend for a playoff spot into late August, early September.
I’m, no doubt, writing this off emotion. Here’s what happened: I was looking through the Baseball Weekly Spring Training previews while eating my tuna melt at JB’s in the greater Surprise area. You may wonder what the tuna sandwich has to do with anything … I’ll tell you: It was delicious. Maybe it’s just because I was starving, you know, after my horrible U.S. Air non-eating experiences. But I have to tell you, it was a good tuna melt, you know, the bread was warm and toasted just right, the tuna was not too dry and not too mayonnaisey (yes, that’s a word), they didn’t flood the thing with cheese which is always a major tuna melt error. Delicious. JB’s didn’t pay me for this endorsement.
Yes. Delicious. Yum.
Oh, wait, I’m sorry, where was I? Oh yeah, so I’m reading Baseball Weekly, and it has those fun charts that show you who is competing for jobs at each position. And I come across … the Toronto Blue Jays. I’ve long been a quasi Blue Jays fan; I think when you’re 10 years old (as I was in 1977) and expansion happens, you just subconsciously pick your favorite expansion team. I chose the Blue Jays over the Mariners in part because I didn’t know what a Mariner was. Also we went as a family to Toronto either that year or the next, and we went to some really cool museum of technology that was the first place where I saw the pool table where no matter where you hit the cue ball, it will bounce back and hit other ball. That had a large impact on me. Also, later, I liked Jesse Barfield.
In any case, I started casually looking at this year’s Toronto’s team. I noticed that they’re picked to finish third again, and I nodded, my gut feeling has long been that you can pencil the Blue Jays into third place until the year 2084. Then I looked at the team and I realized, much to my surprise, that I CANNOT STAND the way this team is put together. I mean, I really, really, really despise the philosophy behind this team. Frank Thomas? David Eckstein? Reed Johnson? Lyle Overbay? A.J. Burnett? Let me just say: Ugh. And I don’t know what to make of Vernon Wells now — I was always a fan but he was brutal last season. I don’t know what to make of Scott Rolen now — he’s got injuries, and he has that 89 OPS+ last year. B.J. Ryan’s coming off the injury. Really, you take away Halladay and Alex Rios, I’m not sure they have another championship caliber guy* on this team.
*I want to take a few words here to explain my philosophy on “championship caliber guy†because we’ve been talking about it here at spring training (and also I don’t want people to think I dislike Dusty McGowan or Aaron Hill or whoever else , I like McGowan and Hill quite a bit).
To me, when you look at a team, it’s fun to go around and ask, “Is this person a championship caliber guy?†Meaning — well, let’s take Kansas City’s David DeJesus as an example because he was the one we were discussing down here in Surprise. The question is: Can you win a championship with David DeJesus?
There are, best I can tell, four answers here.
1. Yes.
2. No.
3. It depends on his role.
4. It depends on what he has around him.
Simple enough. The first answer is, “Yes, you can win with DeJesus,†the second is, “No you can’t.†The third and fourth are qualifications you often hear. For instance, with DeJesus, you might say, “Yes, you can win with him, but not if he’s playing center,†or, “You could win with him if he platoons and gets about 400 at-bats,†or “You could win with him if both your corner outfielders hit 35 home runs,†or whatever.
Well, my idea of a true championship caliber guy is … no qualifications. No exceptions. No excuses. Is Albert Pujols a championship caliber player? Yes. Is Angel Berroa? No. To me, last year’s Red Sox team had eight championship caliber players in key roles — Manny, Papi, Lowell, Varitek, Drew, Beckett, Schilling and Papelbon. That’s an enormous number. Maybe my next post will go through each team and list off how many CCG’s are on that team. In Boston, after those eight, lots of guys — Matsuzaka, Pedroia, Youkilis, Wakefield, several relievers — played at championship level. But there’s a difference with that. I don’t know if that makes any sense at all. But I’m moving on now.
I don’t want you get to the idea that I’m burying the Blue Jays. I think it’s certainly possible that those veteran guys like Rolen, Thomas, Eckstein will have good years, Burnett too, and the Blue Jays will have a nice year (and finish third). I’m just saying that I don’t like the makeup of the team. It’s not the kind of team that I would like to root for as a fan.
On the opposite page of the Blue Jays (in every way) was the Tampa Bay Angel Rays. And let me just tell you … I LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE this team. I mean, Baseball Weekly picked them to finish last (again) and to finish 30th in baseball (again) and so on. I don’t see it. I looked at the players, and here’s what I see.
In left: Carl Crawford is a major stud, one of my favorite players in the game.
In center: B.J. Upton, who put up a 136 OPS+ last year, banged 24 homers, stole 22 bases, and is only 23 years old.
At third: Evan Longoria. I was talking to another scout down here (what do you think I do at spring training — I pretty much talk to scouts 24 hours a day) and he said that Longoria is the best prospect in baseball, bar none. Better than Cameron Maybin. Better than Jacoby Ellsbury. The best … a guy he says can be BETTER than David Wright. Sure, it’s scout talk but … that’s three potential franchise players in the lineup.
At first: Carlos Pena. Make it four. Here are the first basemen in baseball history who have had a .400 OBP, a .625 slugging, 45+ homers, 120+ RBIs in a season and 100+ walks.
– Lou Gehrig (4 times)
– Jimmie Foxx (2 times)
– Mark McGwire (2 times)
– Carlos Pena
– Willie McCovey
– Hank Greenberg
– Ryan Howard
This is only to get the point across that Pena had a remarkable 2007 season. Some think he will go backward– and maybe he will. I don’t know, though. He’s in pretty good company. He’s not quite 30. He may have figured it out.
No. 1 pitcher: Scott Kazmir. Just awesome. Twenty three and led the AL in strikeouts. The Koufax comparison’s looking better and better.
No. 2 pitcher: James Shields. And here, as Bill James said, is Drysdale to Kazmir’s Koufax. He’s a big right-hander who strikes people out and throws inside and seems fearless. And he’s 26.
To me, that’s six big-time players — that’s as good a young core as anywhere in baseball, isn’t it? And then you throw in starter Matt Garza … I’m not as much in love with him as some people are, but there are those who see him as a dominant starter. Throw in Rocco Baldelli, who can’t stay healthy but is still only 26 and not so long ago people were saying he was better than Crawford. Throw in pitcher David Price, last year’s No. 1 pick who had the jaw-dropping slider and could be in the big leagues this year. I mean, heck, I don’t know, I just think there’s an awful lot to get excited about with this team.
Baseball Weekly might be right about the Rays still being the worst team in baseball. As mentioned, I’m usually wrong. But if given the choice, I would MUCH rather be a Rays fan than a Jays fan right now. And I just think this team will get rolling, a little bit like the Brewers did. Of course, the Rays have that crazy Yankees-Red Sox division, which means they will probably have another dreadful September. But I’m on record. August 25th, there’s pennant fever in the I-4 Corridor. You heard it here first. And last.
