Are We About to Experience an Economic 9/11? Is the Sky Really About to Fall?

[ufojoe]

Guys, this is not totally related but, check out this article. It's kind funny that people are
holding onto their homes like this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aejJZdqodTCM&refer=patrick.net

[ufojoe]

Anybody want to give me feedback on Rich Dad predictions, I'm curious to hear it.

http://www.richdad.com/RichDad/RichContent.aspx?cpid=62

I'm going to a lecture of his this week. I think I'm just going to buy a lot of silver and some
gold. I just need to learn how to do it the right way.

[Morgan]

More doom-gloom. Do you ever see anything good in your home country? If it isn't the incompetent FDA, the broken US health care system and lack of health care insurance, the inept President and his cabinet, the broken Federal Reserve, piss-poor FEMA, and a broken down military losing to insurgents. 

Man, you're a major source of depression.

Doom and gloom. Try to find something good with our nation once-in-awhile.

[Morgan]

[mjs020294]

I think gold is an excellent buy. The dollar may come back for a bit and gold may drop. But once the crap
hits the fan, (IF it hits the fan) gold will soar and the dollar will tank.

Gold is getting very over bought right now.  At the end of the day its a commodity and there is a limited market for gold.  Unless the world markets collapse I can't see gold holding its value.  Reduced consumer spending will hit the demand for gold greatly.  Reduced sales for jewelery and electronics will cause a really supply/demand in-balance.

[ufojoe]

I think gold is an excellent buy. The dollar may come back for a bit and gold may drop. But once the crap
hits the fan, (IF it hits the fan) gold will soar and the dollar will tank.

Gold is getting very over bought right now.  At the end of the day its a commodity and there is a limited market for gold.  Unless the world markets collapse I can't see gold holding its value.  Reduced consumer spending will hit the demand for gold greatly.  Reduced sales for jewelery and electronics will cause a really supply/demand in-balance.

MJS, assume the world market collapses after following our lead. Just play along. Let's assume it gets really bad
and our dollar is devalued down to 20 cents on the dollar.

Would gold (and silver) be a decent investment?

[mjs020294]

Well that is a big IF that I do not think will happen.  I personally don't like buying high because the chances of making a loss excalate greatly, and gold is high right now.  Gold is not an alternative currency these days, it is very much a commodity.  Without high demand in certain sectors it can't remain over valued for long.

Most of the money coming back into the markets recently as been trickling in to the stocks worst hit in the current market correction, financials in particular.  Take a lead from the Middle East investors and buy in low.

[ufojoe]

Can you assume for this post? And add in silver too. Isn't silver used in cell phones and computers?

[mjs020294]

Gold might be a better alternative to the dollar or US stocks IF the US collapses and gold holds its value.

For now I will stick to a diversified portfolio of stocks boughts at the bottom, and cash. 

[ufojoe]

Thanks for playing. There are two parting gifts waiting for you as you leave. Both are about aliens
on the moon and Mars! Their dollar crashed a long time ago!

[Rusty]

Joe, how's Manhattan Beach?

[ufojoe]

Great. But if I don't get some income coming in soon, I'm going to be moving in with my
parents! Going to a day trading seminar this week with the author of Rich Dad, Poor
Dad. And might go back to Wife Swap with my tail between my legs. I wanted to
avoid that but I need to get some cash flow going.

[bouconagain]

The online version of his newsletter is $100 a year and is cheaper if you buy a 2 or 3 years subscription.

I think my good friend Barnum said something about this once.

[mjs020294]

Great. But if I don't get some income coming in soon, I'm going to be moving in with my
parents! Going to a day trading seminar this week with the author of Rich Dad, Poor
Dad. And might go back to Wife Swap with my tail between my legs. I wanted to
avoid that but I need to get some cash flow going.

You have a PM

[superbuc]

Gold might be a better alternative to the dollar or US stocks IF the US collapses and gold holds its value.

For now I will stick to a diversified portfolio of stocks boughts at the bottom, and cash.

Joe, this is what I've been trying to convey to you and other folks.  Gold, silver, and other commodities are good parts of portfolios, but, should not be the "engine" of a portfolio.

I don't know your short term situation, but, "catastrophic" events have occured in the last 75 years and the Dow has gone from 100 to 14,000 in the same time period.  So, we're down 10-14% (depending on the index ) in a few months.  We were down 22% in 1987 within a day or 2.   One of my favorite funds is a balanced, world allocation that started 3 months prior to those 2 days.  Out of 20 full years, 18/20 were positive years based on total return (including dividends and cap. gains).  The 2 down years were roughly -3% and 0.5% or so.  It's averaged just under 12%/year!  We've had worse times than now. 

Corporations, countries, and big investors have liquidity to invest and/or have bought their own stock in the last year.  Over the long term, we'll be ok.  The sky's not falling.
For your long term strategy, I'd read these 2 books:

http://www.amazon.com/Essays-Warren-Buffett-Lessons-Corporate/dp/0966446119/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1206219575&sr=1-1

http://www.amazon.com/One-Up-Wall-Street-Already/dp/0743200403/ref=pd_bbs_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1206220591&sr=1-2

Short term is different and I'd be very careful day trading.  I know someone in your business that's getting a lot of work in NYC, some local stuff, some national.  If you're interested in talking to him, let me know.