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#30 : March 26, 2008, 04:09:08 PM

Been to message boards much?

People come here to have their opinions heard and to give feedback on the opinions of others

What did you expect?


ABuccs Fan

Practice Squad

Posts : 0
#31 : March 26, 2008, 04:10:46 PM

Been to message boards much?

People come here to have their opinions heard and to give feedback on the opinions of others

What did you expect?




Hall of Famer

Posts : 8593
#32 : March 26, 2008, 04:11:39 PM



Hall of Famer

Posts : 8593
#33 : March 26, 2008, 04:17:47 PM

How many of the 32 players selected in the first round will turn out to be "very good"?

Feel Real Good

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Posts : 27713
#34 : March 26, 2008, 04:20:42 PM

Which is why most of the draftniks get on my last nerve. The draft is an inexact science, and is a crap shoot. Yet listen to yourself, and many others who claim to be draftniks, and you all talk in absolutes.

Someone suggests a draft pick scenario, and 5 minutes later there are 15 posts stating how that is absurd, or how this player will be a bust, or how this player isn't worth the pick they're suggested to be picked. It's not absolute, not concrete. Yet I can envision some of you sticking out your chests bashing others suggestions as you type. There probably will be more than 19 very good players out of the almost two hundred and a half or so drafted.
The draft is like playing cards. You're not going to win every hand, but if you have a pre-determined system and stick to it, you can do pretty well. Basically you take every pick and determine the threshold for each different position and decide what is the minimum size, speed, college production, attitude, etc., you improve your chances. If you try to outsmart yourself by overrating intangibles or trying to make position changes you can get in trouble. Looking at past picks, if you were thinking about Peter Warrick/Mike Williams, you'd say I'm not spending a top 5-10 pick on a receiver that slow. If you were thinking about Kenyatta Walker, you'd say there's no way I'm trading up for a college right tackle hoping he can play left tackle. I pretty rarely slam a player based on personal feelings. I always try to bring something systenatic to the table.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.


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Posts : 4885
#35 : March 26, 2008, 08:47:26 PM

Is it me or does it seem like the last 1st rounder will be drafted with the 19th pick and after that we're looking at glorified 2nd rounders?

Of course. If the Bucs drafted at #27, then the first rounders would run out at 26. If they drafted a #14, then we'd be all out of first rounders at 13 overall.
I'm not trying to intentionally be negative, if that is what you are suggesting.

Yeah, but you kind of diminish the QB and WR positions even though we know some team is going to draft one of if not all of those guys before we pick, especially the top two QBs. You make the situation appear more bleak than it truly is.
I did the research and referenced 15 players. Throw in Matt Ryan (only consensus top 20 QB), Keith Rivers (only consensus top 20 LB), one receiver (Sweed or Jackson), and one wild card, and you're through #19. Can anyone make the case Sam Baker, Kentwan Balmer, Chris Johnson, Justin King, etc., belong with the players I named?

Yeah, but you leave off Jeff Otah, DeSean Jackson and Phillip Merling who are listed as Top 20 players. Brohm, and Sweed are also good players just outside of the Top 20. That should give you 4 more players which would carry us through pick number twenty.

I'd rather base my opinion off of a tier system, just because the top 20 players don't always go in the top 20 picks. Here's Todd McShay's (Scout's Inc.) Top 3 Tiers:

Elite Tier:
1. Chris Long
2. Darren McFadden
3. Jake Long
4. Glenn Dorsey
5. Matt Ryan
6. Sedrick Ellis

Second Tier
7. Vernon Gholston
8. Ryan Clady
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. keith Rivers
11. Leodis McKelvin
12. Derrick Harvey
13. DRC
14. Chris Williams
15. Jeff Otah
16. Mike Jenkins

Thrid Tier
17. Malcom kelly
18. Phillip Merling
19. Branden Albert
20. DeSean Jackson
21. Jarod Mayo
22. Brian Brohm
23. Aqib Talib
24. Limas Sweed
25. Clais Campbell
26. Mario Manningham
27. Jonathan Stewart

I respect Todd McShay's rankings more than most, and even if you disagree with the rankingsyou could still move players up or down within the tiers as you see fit. Looking at our pick and considering that a player could be selected 2-3 picks up or down from his ranking, I'd say if we end up with a choice of Merling, Talib, Brohm, Stewart, Jackson or Sweed it's a pretty good day.

I should read more of that guys stuff. I'm a HUGE supporter of tier systems. This constant top whatever arbitrary number makes little to no sense to me out side of the entertainment world.

DYK, we have a college football forum... http://www.pewterreport.com/forum/index.php?board=5.0



Posts : 304
#36 : March 26, 2008, 09:39:42 PM

FRG- I understand your concern. Your 15 players- along with maybe Otah- are probably the cream on the crop FOR US. I just can't see all those picks going by without 1 or 2 QBs, 1 or 2 WRs, an interior lineman, a LB or 2, maybe a safety. That should give us the choice of at least a couple of those guys.

#37 : March 27, 2008, 12:40:26 AM

Exactly Plank.

The Bucs are sitting pretty at # 20 and as I've said, it takes a little of the sting out of the loss to NY.

I too prefer the tier system.

Here's a link to an interesting interview with Todd from '06 that is posted on signonsandiego forum:


#38 : March 27, 2008, 12:44:05 AM

 :D  It's old, but here's Todd's top 32:


By Jimmy
Posted on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 11:22:52 AM EDT

Todd McShay of Scout's Inc. has released his top 32 players for the upcoming draft. Six of his top 32 players are receivers which means there should be a pretty good receiver there when the Titans pick at #24. The list when you click read more..

1. Darren McFadden*    RB    Arkansas    6-2    212
2. Chris Long    DE    Virginia    6-3 1/4    266
3. Glenn Dorsey    DT    LSU    6-1 1/4    310
4. Matt Ryan    QB    Boston College    6-4 5/8    221
5. Jake Long    OT    Michigan    6-7    309
6. Sedrick Ellis    DT    USC    6-1 1/4    305
7. Ryan Clady*    OT    Boise State    6-6    317
8. Vernon Gholston*    DE    Ohio State    6-3 5/8    255
9. Brian Brohm    QB    Louisville    6-3    225
10. DeSean Jackson*    WR    California    6-0    179
11. Kenny Phillips*    S    Miami    6-1 3/4    203
12. Mike Jenkins    CB    South Florida    6-0    200
13. Malcolm Kelly*    WR    Oklahoma    6-4    217
14. Samuel Baker    OT    USC    6-5    312
15. Derrick Harvey*    DE    Florida    6-4 1/2    250
16. Andre' Woodson    QB    Kentucky    6-4    219
17. Aqib Talib*    CB    Kansas    6-1 1/2    201
18. Limas Sweed    WR    Texas    6-4 3/8    219
19. Keith Rivers    OLB    USC    6-2 3/4    236
20. Jonathan Stewart*    RB    Oregon    5-11    233
21. Dan Connor    OLB    Penn State    6-3    228
22. Calais Campbell*    DE    Miami    6-7 5/8    279
23. Fred Davis    TE    USC    6-3 1/2    245
24. Mario Manningham*    WR    Michigan    6-0    188
25. Kentwan Balmer    DT    North Carolina    6-4 1/2    297
26. Rashard Mendenhall*    RB    Illinois    5-11    225
27. James Hardy*    WR    Indiana    6-5 1/2    218
28. Ali Highsmith    OLB    LSU    6-0    221
29. Jeffrey Otah    OT    Pittsburgh    6-6    339
30. Pat Sims*    DT    Auburn    6-3 7/8    310
31. Early Doucet III    WR    LSU    6-0    210
32. Quentin Groves    DE    Auburn    6-3 1/2    249
* Denotes underclassman

#39 : March 27, 2008, 01:43:46 AM

I respect Todd McShay's rankings more than most, and even if you disagree with the rankingsyou could still move players up or down within the tiers as you see fit. Looking at our pick and considering that a player could be selected 2-3 picks up or down from his ranking, I'd say if we end up with a choice of Merling, Talib, Brohm, Stewart, Jackson or Sweed it's a pretty good day.

Todd McShay

Matt McGuire doesn't share you enthusiasm:



Fire Todd McShay

By Matt McGuire.
Send Matt an e-mail here: gobucs991940@aol.com.
All other e-mail, including advertising and link proposals, send to: wpc112@gmail.com

The NFL Draft is one of the biggest sporting events in America. Why is that? Well I think mostly because it bridges the gap between college and professional athletics. That can go for any draft though. Football is the most popular sport and the media obviously is going to cash in on that. Television shows, magazines, internet websites, books, etc. can all be traced back to how big the NFL Draft is.

Well one day ESPN realized maybe they needed more than one year-round draft guru. I guess a television audience can only take so much of Mel Kiper's hair that only rivals Steve Lavin's gel usage.

So they decided to add another college football expert to boost ratings and take some of the burden off of Kiper. ESPN purchased The War Room to bolster their football analysis especially for ESPN.com. The War Room's name was later changed to Scout's Inc. Gary Horton had hired an intern named Todd McShay. McShay was just some college kid who liked to learn about football, but really had no prior experience analyzing the game (as far as I know). He was mentored apparently by War Room/Scout's Inc. and in late 2006 he basically became the "next Mel Kiper Jr."

Ever since then ESPN has been feeding us the McShay brand name. On the surface, McShay looks like he knows what he talks about and he appeals to the casual NFL/NCAA football fan that likes a tidbit of draft info here and there.

Well last year on an ESPN Sportscenter special, they thought it would be a fun idea to go old school-new school and have Kiper vs. McShay draft debates. They were talking about where Brady Quinn would fall in the draft. I don't have the exact words, but it went something like this:

McShay: "Brady Quinn in my opinion is not worthy of being a top 10 draft pick. He really struggled in the Sugar Bowl..."

Kiper: "Then why is he seventh on your board?"

McShay: Silence, blank stare, and he was pretty much in shock because there was no way around that response. Kiper basically made McShay look like the preschool draftnik-wannabe that he is.

ESPN seems to still really love McShay though. The recipe is simple if you want to sound like an expert - extend your sentences and talk with confidence, but it doesn't really matter what you say because no one really remembers your mock draft update back from Jan. 17, 2007 anyways. People never really question predictions to the point that one is fired. Let's just be honest, does ESPN really care how talented McShay's eye is for college football talent? They did hire personalities like Rush Limbaugh and Emmitt Smith (see Emmitt Smith Anthology).

Let's just say I think it is time to put McShay in those two guys' company. Why?

McShay plagiarized the ideas and work of Mike Mayock, a real NFL Draft guru, from the NFL Network.

All season long McShay has been talking about how great Darren McFadden is, even going as far to say (so many times) he is the clear cut No. 1 player in the 2008 NFL Draft.

"A lot like Adrian Peterson a year ago coming out of Oklahoma, Darren McFadden from Arkansas is a tremendous talent. In my opinion he is THE No. 1 talent in all of the '08 class...If not the first pick overall I think he is a top-five pick in this draft," McShay said when McFadden declared for the draft.

McShay has the title of "Director of College Scouting," so I would assume he has a large say over their draft board. Well, ever since McFadden declared for the 2008 NFL Draft he has been No. 1 on Scout's Inc. draft board and McShay has backed that up adamantly - not once has he ever doubted McFadden's talent.

On Tuesday, Feb. 12, Mayock's top five by position was updated on NFL.com's Draft Web site. In it McFadden wasn't even the best player at his position - Rashard Mendenhall was ahead of him.

On Wednesday, Feb. 13, Mayock was brought on NFL Network's Total Access to break down his top 10 of his draft board - no where was McFadden to be found.

"I don't touch Darren McFadden in the first twenty picks of the Draft," said Mayock.

On Thursday (or early Friday can't remember which), Mayock broke down Mendenhall and McFadden's game film and explained why he isn't as high on McFadden as the consensus opinion suggests.

On Friday, Feb. 15, McShay was brought onto ESPN Sportscenter to do their "Cold Hard Facts" series. A question was asked, "Who is the better runningback, Rashard Mendhenhall or Darren McFadden?"

I don't have McShay's exact quotes, but he said that Mendenhall was a better back than McFadden. He didn't say anything about Mendenhall rising on draft boards or McFadden falling - just that Mendenhall was better than McFadden and he was no longer an elite prospect.

Now you can say, "OK, well maybe that's what the scouts are saying now," but I have evidence that says not that long ago McShay was still singing McFadden's praises.

On Feb. 12 McShay released his analysis on the top running backs in the 2008 draft class (which is linked at the bottom of the page), "Darren McFadden, the top-rated prospect on our draft board, is one of eight early entries to bolster a weak group ... McFadden is likely a top-five pick, followed by Rashard Mendenhall..."

Even today Darren McFadden is still the No. 1 overall player on Scouts Inc's Draft Board with a player rating of 99 out of 100 despite what McShay said last Friday, which I don't think anyone ever really heard McShay say this (ESPN can go back to their tapes - he said it, I guarantee)

I mean, this is absolutely ridiculous. McShay says McFadden goes from "top-five pick" to "Mendenhall is better" in a matter of three days! All that hype McShay has been building the entire college football season that McFadden was an elite player and another Adrian Peterson automatically goes out the window in about a 72-hour timespan.

It's not that hard. Connect the dots for yourself. On Wednesday, Mayock said McFadden wasn't a top 20 pick in his eyes - then the next chance McShay gets on Sportscenter he reniggs on all the love he threw McFadden's way and he says pretty much the same exact thing Mayock stated two days ago.

It's plagiarism plain and simple. From WordNet on Dictionary.com, "Taking someone's words or ideas as if they were your own."

If McShay is the "Director of College Scouting" of Scouts Inc., then what kind of scout changes his opinion on a dime based on what someone else said? How do you go from the next Adrian Peterson to not being better than Mendenhall overnight like that? It's ridiculous.

His opinion is going out to millions of people every month leading up to the Draft, and they all believe he does his own film study, and his thoughts are all original.

Everything McShay says is just the consensus opinion (other than him plagiarizing Mayock). It's nothing we haven't heard before (at least draftniks) and to me it just seems like he is too scared to go out on a limb, unless he steals someone elses work, that is. McShay's comments are almost always parallel with Kiper's, and quite frankly I think this is because McShay is too scared to say something that he would feel is wrong.

I can get a more innovative opinion about the NFL Draft at Victoria's Secret rather than having to listen to Todd McShay.

This guy is a clown. He has no real background. He is just some college kid that was helped out by War Room to learn football with no prior experience other than being cut by a Division III football team as a walk-on. ESPN wanted a specific draft expert and I guess they thought he was their best option because he was younger and energetic.

ESPN should fire McShay the day after the 2008 NFL Draft. He can be easily replaced - I'm not joking when I say I can find 200 to 300 teenagers from various football message boards who know more about football than McShay. It's not like he puts any real work into breaking down film - and if he is, then how come his analysis isn't more advanced, and how come he doesn't break down film like a Ron Jaworski, Brian Baldinger, Merril Hoge, etc.? If he is some college football expert then how come he never saw McFadden's weaknesses before and why didn't he ever tell us about them?

To get a job at ESPN, you should know something about football - but does a "Director of College Scouting" plagiarize the ideas of an analyst of a rival television network? I wouldn't think so.

Why don't we just start calling McShay for what he is: Todd McFraud.

McFraud is nothing special, and I think it is time ESPN becomes aware that he did steal Mayock's ideas in a matter of days and said them to every single household in America that tuned into him on Sportscenter. Why does he deserve to even write one senternce on ESPN.com if he is copying others' work? McFraud lied to America's face by acting like he came up with the shocking opinion that Mendenhall was better than McFadden.

If McFraud had any confidence in his previous statements about McFadden or his own original opinion than he wouldn't have been so fast to change his mind about something he has been saying since last summer (and hasn't withdrawn from at all).

If you want quality analysis and someone who doesn't steal others work, please contact ESPN (on the link below) and tell them what you think of McFraud for stealing Mayock's material. Don't be afraid to give a link to this Fire Todd McShay article either. I have no reason to lie here; there is nothing in it for me other than wanting ESPN's analysts to not steal other's ideas. I am passionate about the draft and there are millions of casual fans out there in the upcoming months who are going to digest what McFraud is saying and take his ideas for what they are without even thinking he is a plagiaristic loser.

If McFraud was in the print journalism industy he wouldn't ever get a job again for passing off someone else's ideas as his own. I hope ESPN would treat him the same as a respected magazine or newspaper would and can him on April 28, 2008 - the day after the draft is finished.


Practice Squad

Posts : 0
#40 : March 27, 2008, 08:44:10 AM

LOL! That's some real hate right there mtn. Like I said though, even if you disagree with his rankings (and honestly you have to take it all with a grain of salt) you really can't argue much with his Tier System. Some of those guys that he ranks in the lower tiers are so closely grouped together that they get assigned a number. THe thing about McShay that I llike is that he works for a scouting company along with 2 or 3 other guy who  also have input on the Scouts Inc scouting reports that you can find on ESPN, not to mention their own articles.

#41 : March 27, 2008, 12:40:45 PM

I tellin' ya Cerious, it is...............McGuire wants McShay's head man.  :o
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