QB future

[caradoc]

Been thinking a fair amount about this, it's a big issue.  Guess I should preface this with; I don't think Simms is a good as a lot of peeps here think, and I am not ready to fully judge Grad's ability.  So if there's a bias, you know my current feelings.

I've become convinced that through circumstance more than anything else, Gradkowski is our most likely starter next year, assuming Gru is our HC.  I've thought about what makes a successful QB in Gruden's system.  In Gannon he had a smart, mobile guy with a good but not spectacular arm.  In Brad Johnson he had a very smart, savvy guy with an arm so weak it makes Grads look like Manning.  In Greise he had a Smart guy with an average arm with a penchant for brainfarts at the absolute worst moment possible.  These have been the successful QB's in his system.  You'll note Simms isn't included there, at 6-8 (not including his earlier starts - would be worse-, and I wouldn't consider him successful in this system anyway, he's been an exception).

He's tried Robosack and Shaun.  Both Dumb guys, robo had great physical attributes, but was mildly retarded (apologies where appropriate).  Shaun Was lazy, slightly smarter than robo but not smart, and had crap for physical attributes.  (IMO it was laziness that shot his chance).  In Simms, he has another robosack.  Better arm, but less mobility. I would say slightly smarter, but he's in his 4th year here and still never seemed to fully grasp this offense, so I have to wonder where rob would be if he had 4 years.  Holds the ball too long looking for that big deep shot, which is the polar opposite of what this offensive team is designed and built to do.  To those who say "change th O to fit Chris' 'strengths'", sorry, but his "strengths" aren't strong enough.  Maybe you adjust to peytons passing or vick's running, but simms' "strengnth's" just don't justify that wholesale change.  And at the risk of sounding petty, I hate using the plural of strength.  He has ONE strength, the deep ball.  So did Jeff George and a host of others.

So where does that leave us?

Jon's been able to be successful with SMART QB's.  More than anything else, he needs a guy who can grasp his system.  Forget arm strength, forget mobility.  Can he grok the O?  Brad could.  Greise could.  It's no coincidence that the only 2 guys that have been successful here had the ability to get it.  Neither had the attributes Simms or Robo had.  But both could think.  They eventually lost their jobs in a combo of cap and performance issues -- performance they were good, but not stellar, and started fading due to their weaknesses, which leveraged by cap weight pushed them out.  But we should learn from their lesson.  And what is their Lesson?
Mediocre physical talent coupled with Good mental ability is successful here.  Great Physical talent with Mediocre mental ability is NOT. 

In FA, we have very limited options  None of the guys clearly available seem to be mental giants.  The draft route takes years, and we have an unspectacular draft of QBs coming.  Too bad we didn't suck last year.

That leaves us with our current stable again.  Our current stable is realistically only Grads and McCown.  Who knows about McCown?  It's not possible to judge grads from a fan viewpoint, as we don't see enough, but by all we hear he fitts the criteria.  Even from what his main competition, Simms, has said.  Mediocre physical, good mental.  Given an offseason to work on mechanics he could look a lot better.  Of all the rookie starters this year, he was the most raw, had the most room for improvement.  In a year he has a realistic chance to improve his weakest areas dramatically, and even only a moderate improvement would make him a feasible starter.

I would expect if Gru is here that Grads is the preferred starter into the offseason, but a safety-valve of some sort retained.  Someone other than Simms, as others will be enamored of his physical tools and pay more than we will, while we'll go after someone with either a track recrd (Garcia) or upside (Carr).  (Or reclamation like plummer but please let Jon know better than that).

I know I've put Simms down here , but what really differentiate's him from Rob Johnson?  He's had more performance wringed out of him here than he would elsewhere.  Put him into the robosack category, he'll disappoint more than us before he's done.  He took a team that a less talented, but smarter QB went 5-1 with and went 6-4 with them and lost in a humiliating playoff defeat.  Then 0-3 this year.  He looked Worse in those Games than his rookie replacement.  Which says to me that without the #1 D in the league and a good running game to carry him, he sucks rocks.  The mental is more important here than the physical.  Simms doesn't have it, and never will, so I don't see him as the future here.

[dalbuc]

The draft of QB's this year is loaded. I have no idea why you'd think otherwise. Quinn is everyone's all american. People apparently think very highly of JaMarcus Russell, Brian Brohm should come out and he's an R1 guy. Drew Stnaton is a well regarded prospect. Troy Smith, if he can measure up, will be highly drafted.  That's 5 possible R1 guys and more likely 4. That's not a bad crop o' guys.

There's nothing in FA but there almost never is which is why you have to draft 'em.

Gruden wants smart QB's but that is sot of a meaningless distinction, everyone wants smart QB's, dumb QB's don't last long in this league unless they have assumed names for uncureable diseases.  I'm not sure where SoB becomes smart BTW since playing dumb has been the hallmark of his career. The bigger trait is accuracy. You need smart but once you make the decision you must be able to place the ball on target. SoB, despite his dumb, could actually put the ball where it needed to be other than the two times a game he threw it to the other team. Ditto Brad except without the turnover comment.

Gradkowski is basically all about the physical traits. while Brad and SoB didn't have Palmer arms they had enough to scare folks - Brads arm was always much better than people gave him credit for. I think folks forget his time in Washington running Norv Tuner's vertical offense for example. Grads apparently doesn't scare folks right now and it doesn't matter how smart you are (see Steve Walsh) if the arm ain't there then you aren't gonna be long for the league. That is the problem Gradkowksi has to overcome. I think the problems on the deep ball are because he's heaving it that far and not throwing it for example.

He might be the "best" option next year but it might not make him a good option.

[karen anderson]

What makes you think Grads has the smarts for this offense?  All the wide open receivers he misses? The constant checkdowns to the 5 yd passes? Not seeing ANY lanes & just trying to run way too much?

What makes you think Grads has the smarts for this offense?  All the wide open receivers he misses? The constant checkdowns to the 5 yd passes? Not seeing ANY lanes & just trying to run way too much?

The same can be said for Simms.

[watson]

What makes you think Grads has the smarts for this offense?  All the wide open receivers he misses? The constant checkdowns to the 5 yd passes? Not seeing ANY lanes & just trying to run way too much?

Karen,
In his rookie year Simms coudn't even remember the play was called and had to ask Gruden to repeat it multiple times.  From what I have seen Gradkowski has a good grasp on the playbook and understands the concepts of the plays.  The play on the field is still running at about 10,000 mph right now, but the more time he has running the plays and the more he sees, that will slow things down and he will see the plays sooner and be able to just react versus having to think it through.  To be able to do as well running this offense, as a rookie, he has to have some smarts.

[caradoc]

What makes you think Grads has the smarts for this offense?  All the wide open receivers he misses? The constant checkdowns to the 5 yd passes? Not seeing ANY lanes & just trying to run way too much?

As noted in the article, this is what has been said by the staff there.  It was also said by Chris Simms, I would think you would at least believe him in this matter....

[gharen]

I think the only way the Bucs draft a QB in the first is if the Glaers assure Gruden that he will be around. If they do draft a QB in the first I'd go with Brohm.

[jsunm73]

just so we don't throw big money at a has been i'll be ok with it.simms had his shot.grads is young so the jury is still out on him.mckown has not gotten a shot.rattay is toast.drafting a young guy if not high forget it.quality is worth it.you get what you pay for.you pay for cheap crap you get cheap crap.so if they are going with a draft pick.it has to be smith,quinn,russell,ect.just so the guy can function properly.i would rather stick wth grads,mckown,and maybe throw in a solid vet.if they drafted a young qb then fine.just not some guy in the 4th round or later.a stud from day one.for now we just have to hope and pray the season will get over soon.