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SwarmingDefense

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: April 20, 2008, 02:49:17 AM

Hate - I dont see a player in the same mold as Peterson in this draft,

No one in last years draft saw peterson in that mold obviously the Bucs didn't


yuccaneers

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#1 : April 19, 2008, 08:15:56 PM

The NFL Draft is clearly a critical ingredient in developing a successful long term stable future for an organization, but is it reasonable for fans to expect this year's draftees to step in and contribute big contributions in their rookie seasons?

In Football, RESPECT is never given freely by your opponent. It must be TAKEN from them...VIOLENTLY

Great players cost a lot of money but help win games. High-priced players - a byproduct of poorly run front offices with bad scouting departments - only cost a lot of money.
"Our greatest glory consists not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall."
Oliver Goldsmith



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#2 : April 19, 2008, 08:23:28 PM

ask Adrian Peterson

yuccaneers

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#3 : April 19, 2008, 08:25:33 PM

Hate - I dont see a player in the same mold as Peterson in this draft, if some of these players were in last years draft not sure some of them would even be first round picks

In Football, RESPECT is never given freely by your opponent. It must be TAKEN from them...VIOLENTLY

Great players cost a lot of money but help win games. High-priced players - a byproduct of poorly run front offices with bad scouting departments - only cost a lot of money.
"Our greatest glory consists not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall."
Oliver Goldsmith

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#4 : April 19, 2008, 11:59:57 PM

If it happens that is nice, but it can't be expected. That type of pressure has ruined a lot of promising young players. Heck look at Gaines. He was brought along slowly and at the end of the year it showed- especially in his gap assignments. In the long run I think he is better for it.

Pick6

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#5 : April 20, 2008, 01:50:53 AM

some players are just transcendent, and might've been NFL-ready coming out of high school, but i think teams hurt themselves when they expect that to be the rule rather than the exception....it's symptomatic of teams that are perennially poor that they expect their high draft picks to come in and be leaders who immedaitely change their fortunes....as a policy, teams should expect rookies to show steady improvement in their first year and take on only the playing time they earn...if somebody steps up and pulls an adrian peterson or ben roethlisberger, that's just bonus....when you treat a guy like he's the chosen one, he rarely gets the coaching or mentoring that he needs, he's expected to have the knowledge and poise of a vet, and that can weigh a player down to the point where it ruins his career...

Boid Fink

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#6 : April 20, 2008, 01:58:02 AM

1:  Devin Thomas - WR
2:  Dre Moore - DT
3:  Tyvon Branch - KR/CB
4:  Chris Harrington - DE
5:  Doug Legursky - C

It is looking more like Devin Thomas is not going to be anywhere near 20.  So I change my first round pick to Limas Sweed. (Unfortunately, Gruden loves these types of WRs).

ANd out of all of them, methinks Dre Moore will be a solid add, iff he suits up in Pewter. ;D


ABuccs Fan

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#7 : April 20, 2008, 03:35:26 AM

If it happens that is nice, but it can't be expected.
Bravo, bravo sir. Post of the predraft period. Kudos.

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#8 : April 20, 2008, 04:32:19 AM

Rookies are a gamble all the way around.   That's why you should trade draft picks for proven players if you can rather than draft rookies.   

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#9 : April 20, 2008, 06:36:01 AM

Well, let's see....A "can't miss" draft pick has about a 30% chance of being a bust. For every Peyton Manning there's at least one Ryan Leaf.

At 20?? I'd have to say we're closer to 50/50. The player we take may be serviceable, but he's going to get a big contract. Our second rounder may be a very good player a la Aaron Sears, or a ? a la Sabby, who I hope will be a solid player. We just don't know.

I'd much rather have a proven commodity like Jared Allen in exchange for those two picks.


Feel Real Good

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#10 : April 20, 2008, 09:26:45 AM

Running backs, pass rushers, linebackers, safeties, and offensive linemen are usually the most ready. Quarterbacks, receivers, and corners tend to take a little time.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

cvillebucfan

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#11 : April 20, 2008, 10:17:44 AM

The NFL Draft is clearly a critical ingredient in developing a successful long term stable future for an organization, but is it reasonable for fans to expect this year's draftees to step in and contribute big contributions in their rookie seasons?

Well the Giants got nice mileage out of what, all 8 of their draft picks from 2007 enroute to a superbowl title...



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#12 : April 20, 2008, 01:46:24 PM

Breaking it down by position, here is how I see the odds of a rook having an impact.

odds of:  seeing the field    6-8 plays/game   starting       why
QB                 0                  0                    0       Complex playbook, 4-5 guys ahead
RB                80%               20%               10%    Most likely pos. for a rook to start, odds are 1 or 2 existing guys get hurt.
WR             70%/40%         55%/30%         25%    2 numbers for WRs with return skills/without return skills.  Pos. takes a couple years
                                                                              to learn, but could see time in 3-4 WR sets.
TE                30%               20%               >5%    Would only see the field on ST.  Troupe and Smith locked in starters.
OT               40%               35%               10%     Only 2 LTs and one is injury prone.  Rook would likely see time on FGs, PATs and in relief
OG/C            25%               15%               >5%     deep at OG, center brings up the averages.

DL               80%                55%               30%     Coyer loves to rotate, rook can/should get time.Carter/LDEs not that hard to beatout.
LB               20%                >5%                >5%    Only hope of sniffing the field is ST.
S                20%                >5%                >5%    See LBs ^^
CB              30%                20%                 5%     If he is great, might get ST time but Monte's scheme takes time to learn.

I am basing this on an average to above average player drafted at our draft slot. A McFadden, Ellis, or Long dropping to us would pbviously change things.

I calculated this using precisely balanced coins.  The raw data can be found at www.mycolon.com so you know from where I pulled the numbers. 

Conclusions:  IMO which is based on this highly rectal numbers, I would say a WR with strong return ability like D. Jackson in the 4th would have more of an impact than a 1st rnd CB/QB/big WR like Sweed but any WR would likely have an impact given the weakness of our current crop.  A RB's impact would be more dependant on the health of our existing 3 than anything else.  A DL seems like the most likely to make an impact, given that Coyer like to rotate his guys and keep'em fresh. If having our first round pick make an immediate impact is a priority, then steer clear of QB/LB/CB because these have existing starters and/or require a lot of learning time.




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#13 : April 20, 2008, 02:06:06 PM

Hate - I dont see a player in the same mold as Peterson in this draft,

No one in last years draft saw peterson in that mold obviously the Bucs didn't


Vikes did....which is precisely why they drafted him a year after giving Chester Taylor a nice free agent deal.

SwarmingDefense

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#14 : April 21, 2008, 01:22:44 AM

Hate - I dont see a player in the same mold as Peterson in this draft,

No one in last years draft saw peterson in that mold obviously the Bucs didn't


Vikes did....which is precisely why they drafted him a year after giving Chester Taylor a nice free agent deal.

No they didn't... They had NO idea he would have two 200 yard games as a rook because if they did, they would have traded up to get him because they wouldn't want anyone else to snag him.

Minny took the BPA which happened to be AP, Lucky them

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