Breaking it down by position, here is how I see the odds of a rook having an impact.
odds of: seeing the field 6-8 plays/game starting why
QB 0 0 0 Complex playbook, 4-5 guys ahead
RB 80% 20% 10% Most likely pos. for a rook to start, odds are 1 or 2 existing guys get hurt.
WR 70%/40% 55%/30% 25% 2 numbers for WRs with return skills/without return skills. Pos. takes a couple years
to learn, but could see time in 3-4 WR sets.
TE 30% 20% >5% Would only see the field on ST. Troupe and Smith locked in starters.
OT 40% 35% 10% Only 2 LTs and one is injury prone. Rook would likely see time on FGs, PATs and in relief
OG/C 25% 15% >5% deep at OG, center brings up the averages.
DL 80% 55% 30% Coyer loves to rotate, rook can/should get time.Carter/LDEs not that hard to beatout.
LB 20% >5% >5% Only hope of sniffing the field is ST.
S 20% >5% >5% See LBs ^^
CB 30% 20% 5% If he is great, might get ST time but Monte's scheme takes time to learn.
I am basing this on an average to above average player drafted at our draft slot. A McFadden, Ellis, or Long dropping to us would pbviously change things.
I calculated this using precisely balanced coins. The raw data can be found at
www.mycolon.com so you know from where I pulled the numbers.
Conclusions: IMO which is based on this highly rectal numbers, I would say a WR with strong return ability like D. Jackson in the 4th would have more of an impact than a 1st rnd CB/QB/big WR like Sweed but any WR would likely have an impact given the weakness of our current crop. A RB's impact would be more dependant on the health of our existing 3 than anything else. A DL seems like the most likely to make an impact, given that Coyer like to rotate his guys and keep'em fresh. If having our first round pick make an immediate impact is a priority, then steer clear of QB/LB/CB because these have existing starters and/or require a lot of learning time.
