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spartan

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#15 : December 14, 2006, 12:42:37 PM

Talk about trading down seems to be the defacto standard of trying to show you know what you are talking about. People were saying trade down when we won the superbowl (yea I know, we didnt have a round 1 pick then, I was being facetious and it demonstrates my point). Trading down is premised on the fact that somebody wants to trade UP. That means we have no control if we trade down or not, a team wanting to trade up must come to us, or we totally blow any bargaining position we hold. Therefore calls to trade down, and criticisms for not trading down shows more ignorance of negotiations than genius IMO.

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#16 : December 14, 2006, 12:47:18 PM

Talk about trading down seems to be the defacto standard of trying to show you know what you are talking about. People were saying trade down when we won the superbowl (yea I know, we didnt have a round 1 pick then, I was being facetious and it demonstrates my point). Trading down is premised on the fact that somebody wants to trade UP. That means we have no control if we trade down or not, a team wanting to trade up must come to us, or we totally blow any bargaining position we hold. Therefore calls to trade down, and criticisms for not trading down shows more ignorance of negotiations than genius IMO.

what he said ^^




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#17 : December 14, 2006, 01:59:42 PM

Talk about trading down seems to be the defacto standard of trying to show you know what you are talking about. People were saying trade down when we won the superbowl (yea I know, we didnt have a round 1 pick then, I was being facetious and it demonstrates my point). Trading down is premised on the fact that somebody wants to trade UP. That means we have no control if we trade down or not, a team wanting to trade up must come to us, or we totally blow any bargaining position we hold. Therefore calls to trade down, and criticisms for not trading down shows more ignorance of negotiations than genius IMO.

what he said ^^

Well...ok.  Except for the fact that considering the options that may be available at QB (not to mention other positions), it is logical that someone might want to trade up, say, 5 spots to get that guy that they want.  There is a precedent for it, certainly, and you can argue that the motivation from our side is certainly there.  Definitely more than the SB year.  ;)

Yes, being able to trade down is predicated on having someone approach us.

...and having the third pick is predicated on continuing to lose.

...and even having a draft is predicated on the Earth still existing coem next year.

As long as we're speculating...I do think trading down is a good idea, provided The US hasn't sunk into the ocean.

Oh...and provided a team makes an offer.

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#18 : December 14, 2006, 02:21:04 PM

The logic in a trade down, unspoken, is that getting two average players is better than getting one great one - people will always toss out all the great players that went later in draft here.

Lets say you can draft Jon Ogden OR Jeff Backus and Chris Hovan which do you want (and BTW I'm picking Backus and Hovan  becuase I think they are good but sort of average NFL starters)? The higher up you draft the better odds you get Ogden and 1 star > 2 average guys.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.
If you think Manziel is the best QB in this draft I can safely assume you are an idiot and will treat you as such.



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#19 : December 14, 2006, 02:42:32 PM

The logic in a trade down, unspoken, is that getting two average players is better than getting one great one - people will always toss out all the great players that went later in draft here.

Lets say you can draft Jon Ogden OR Jeff Backus and Chris Hovan which do you want (and BTW I'm picking Backus and Hovan  becuase I think they are good but sort of average NFL starters)? The higher up you draft the better odds you get Ogden and 1 star > 2 average guys.

If the guy you want is the BAP at DT, looking to go around #10 and you have the #3 pick, you could both get your guy and an extra guy.

BTW, I don't think that the rationale behind trading down is exactly as you said.  Execs always look to be getting guys that they are excited about.  Look at how the Charger's deals of the last few years have turned out.  Ladainian Tomlinson is just one of a couple of "Average" players the Chargers got for Vick.  Not saying it always turns out that way, but you have to look at it as an option when it makes sense.

spartan

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#20 : December 14, 2006, 03:00:47 PM

I guess my point is that if you are going to put forward an argument that we should trade down, it is worthless unless it is supported with a team that you think will want to trade up, for whom and what we would get for it. Until then its like discussing what you are going to buy if you win the lottery. Speculating is one thing but it IMO it has to be realistic and based on some kind of substance.

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#21 : December 14, 2006, 03:01:35 PM

I think a lot of Bucs fans were enamored with the Sapp draft. We traded down from #7 to #12 I believe and we still got Sapp. But I also think most people will admit, that was a gamble that happened to pay off big time.

Which response do we get this time? Butthurt? Needs medical treatment? Or the all time favorite, \"Drama Queen\"



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#22 : December 14, 2006, 03:06:40 PM

I guess my point is that if you are going to put forward an argument that we should trade down, it is worthless unless it is supported with a team that you think will want to trade up, for whom and what we would get for it. Until then its like discussing what you are going to buy if you win the lottery. Speculating is one thing but it IMO it has to be realistic and based on some kind of substance.

Well, it's not like winning the lotto, it's like flipping a coin.  Here's a link to a list of the first round when Eli Manning was selected.  Look at the number of pick that were traded.

http://www.fftoday.com/nfl/drafttracker.php?o=by_year&DraftYear=2004&DraftRound=1

We're speculating about the draft.  If the idea of trading down is off the table, we shouldn't be discussing the draft, period, until after the combine.  Too many variables.

spartan

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#23 : December 14, 2006, 03:10:10 PM

Let me expand a bit on my last post, the only 2 teams that I think who could possibly move up are GB and Minnesota as they need franchise QB's.  With Quinn, Brohm, Russell and Smith in the draft I think they can both sit tight and get what they want anyway. Other teams in the top 10 are so full of holes they will need every draft pick they have as it is, and still meet a need so there is no impetus to move.

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#24 : December 14, 2006, 03:15:14 PM

1st of all, OAK will not be on the clock 1st (trading to ATL for Michael Vick) IMO...

1st - C. Johnson (ATL) [banghead]
2nd - Joe Thomas (DET)
3rd - JaMarcus Russell (TB) 8)



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#25 : December 14, 2006, 03:18:51 PM

Let me expand a bit on my last post, the only 2 teams that I think who could possibly move up are GB and Minnesota as they need franchise QB's.  With Quinn, Brohm, Russell and Smith in the draft I think they can both sit tight and get what they want anyway. Other teams in the top 10 are so full of holes they will need every draft pick they have as it is, and still meet a need so there is no impetus to move.

Point taken.

I think that, when all is said and done, probably two of those QBs (IMO Quinn and Russell will elevate above the others.  My point is simply that people will trade up to get their guy, and we don't know how the combine, etc. will play out.  ALL of this is speculation, and I don't regard the speculation about trading down to be any different than the calls for drafting Russell or Quinn or Adams or Mike Ditka.  :)

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#26 : December 14, 2006, 03:26:26 PM

1st of all, OAK will not be on the clock 1st (trading to ATL for Michael Vick) IMO...

1st - C. Johnson (ATL) [banghead]
2nd - Joe Thomas (DET)
3rd - JaMarcus Russell (TB) 8)


The Falcons will not trade Vick, and in that situation we take Gaines Adams.

mjs020294

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#27 : December 14, 2006, 03:42:07 PM

Let me expand a bit on my last post, the only 2 teams that I think who could possibly move up are GB and Minnesota as they need franchise QB's. 

GB already have an understudy on the roster.


dalbuc

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#28 : December 14, 2006, 03:50:10 PM

BTW, I don't think that the rationale behind trading down is exactly as you said.  Execs always look to be getting guys that they are excited about.  Look at how the Charger's deals of the last few years have turned out.  Ladainian Tomlinson is just one of a couple of "Average" players the Chargers got for Vick.  Not saying it always turns out that way, but you have to look at it as an option when it makes sense.

They went from 1 to 5, so they weren't dropping into the teens or anything. That draft had 5 elite players. If you move down what you want to do is stay in the same "tier" of talent. I'm not sure how deep this draft really runs but if there are 5 blue chip prospects than you don't want to drop outside that realm.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.
If you think Manziel is the best QB in this draft I can safely assume you are an idiot and will treat you as such.



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#29 : December 14, 2006, 03:55:22 PM

BTW, I don't think that the rationale behind trading down is exactly as you said.  Execs always look to be getting guys that they are excited about.  Look at how the Charger's deals of the last few years have turned out.  Ladainian Tomlinson is just one of a couple of "Average" players the Chargers got for Vick.  Not saying it always turns out that way, but you have to look at it as an option when it makes sense.

They went from 1 to 5, so they weren't dropping into the teens or anything. That draft had 5 elite players. If you move down what you want to do is stay in the same "tier" of talent. I'm not sure how deep this draft really runs but if there are 5 blue chip prospects than you don't want to drop outside that realm.

Agreed.  I think, again, depending on the situation, that dropping 5 spots or so could be worthwhile.
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