Jon Gruden, offensive genius

[naplesbuc]

Brad was getting older and his arm strength was never very good.
Griese resurrected his career under Gruden to land a very good contract with the Bears.
Simms may now be the most coveted FA QB.  Given his deficiencies when he first showed up to TC you have to give Gruden some credit for his improvement.

[Booker Reese]

Dungy/Polian have had a tight cap no doubt. But they haven't had the dearth of quality picks like the Bucs, and since Dungy arrived in 2002, they have taken only 3 offensive players on the first day.  Sure, they've picked later than the Bucs, but a pick trumps no pick. And the Bucs have only been in a truly premium spot once - the 2005 draft. Freeney was taken earlier than any Buc picked in the 2002-2006 drafts other than Caddy.

The problem has really been that the Colts picks haven't panned out. Freeney and June have been great/good (June was a 6th rounder), Mathis (a 5th), and Bob Sanders flashed signs of being very good (but can't stay healthy). But guys like Gilbert Gardner, Marlin Jackson, Mike Doss, Donald Strickland, Larry Tripplet, etc. are pretty big dissappointments thus far.

In any case, I'd pass on those rankings, which are based on yards - I mean ask yourself this - who was better, the 2000 Ravens or the 2000 Titans. The yards say the Titans, but not a person alive would ever believe they were better than the Ravens. Here are football outsiders' DVOA rankings for both the Bucs O and Indy D since 2002. The 2006 numbers are through week 13. I'm sure both will be worse after accounting for the two terrible games they've just had:

Bucs O, 2002-2006:

21
17
21
19
31

Colts D:

23
15
19
8
26

In any case, I sort of think this is a silly line of argument. I can think of other examples of "guru's" from one side of the ball struggling to recreate their genius as a head coach - Marvin Lewis? Denny Green (in AZ)? Brian Billick? Billick's been at this for 8 years and still can't figure out the combination, even with 5 number 1 picks and some free agents on the offense.

The bottom line is you can't win (except on rare occassions) when your team is bottom of the barrel on either unit.  With unbalanced cap teams like the Colts and the Bucs, you just need to get enough out of the weaker one to give the stronger one a chance to win for you. In 2002 and 2005, Gruden he did that. In 2006, he hasn't.

We can talk about "his" players and all that, but I think Gruden's biggest problem has been the inability to stabilize the QB position. Some of that's his fault - within his budget, which has been limited, he gets to pick his guys (to an extent - King and Brad were inherited, Simms may or may not have been Gruden's choice) - other things, like the ridiculous number of injuries are not. I think it's telling that the Bucs best offense under Gruden was the season that Brad started every game. He's had 2-3 QBs playing every other year.

That's why next year is so troubling -there aren't any good vets out there, Simms is a bigger question mark now than he was coming into 2006, and McCown and Gradkowski are semi-experienced young backups.

Dungy/Polian have had a tight cap no doubt. But they haven't had the dearth of quality picks like the Bucs, and since Dungy arrived in 2002, they have taken only 3 offensive players on the first day. Sure, they've picked later than the Bucs, but a pick trumps no pick. And the Bucs have only been in a truly premium spot once - the 2005 draft. Freeney was taken earlier than any Buc picked in the 2002-2006 drafts other than Caddy.

The problem has really been that the Colts picks haven't panned out. Freeney and June have been great/good (June was a 6th rounder), Mathis (a 5th), and Bob Sanders flashed signs of being very good (but can't stay healthy). But guys like Gilbert Gardner, Marlin Jackson, Mike Doss, Donald Strickland, Larry Tripplet, etc. are pretty big dissappointments thus far.

In any case, I'd pass on those rankings, which are based on yards - I mean ask yourself this - who was better, the 2000 Ravens or the 2000 Titans. The yards say the Titans, but not a person alive would ever believe they were better than the Ravens. Here are football outsiders' DVOA rankings for both the Bucs O and Indy D since 2002. The 2006 numbers are through week 13. I'm sure both will be worse after accounting for the two terrible games they've just had:

Bucs O, 2002-2006:

21
17
21
19
31

Colts D:

23
15
19
8
26

In any case, I sort of think this is a silly line of argument. I can think of other examples of "guru's" from one side of the ball struggling to recreate their genius as a head coach - Marvin Lewis? Denny Green (in AZ)? Brian Billick? Billick's been at this for 8 years and still can't figure out the combination, even with 5 number 1 picks and some free agents on the offense.

The bottom line is you can't win (except on rare occassions) when your team is bottom of the barrel on either unit. With unbalanced cap teams like the Colts and the Bucs, you just need to get enough out of the weaker one to give the stronger one a chance to win for you. In 2002 and 2005, Gruden he did that. In 2006, he hasn't.

We can talk about "his" players and all that, but I think Gruden's biggest problem has been the inability to stabilize the QB position. Some of that's his fault - within his budget, which has been limited, he gets to pick his guys (to an extent - King and Brad were inherited, Simms may or may not have been Gruden's choice) - other things, like the ridiculous number of injuries are not. I think it's telling that the Bucs best offense under Gruden was the season that Brad started every game. He's had 2-3 QBs playing every other year.

That's why next year is so troubling -there aren't any good vets out there, Simms is a bigger question mark now than he was coming into 2006, and McCown and Gradkowski are semi-experienced young backups.

great post

[Booker Reese]

thanks

[T]

Dungy/Polian have had a tight cap no doubt. But they haven't had the dearth of quality picks like the Bucs, and since Dungy arrived in 2002, they have taken only 3 offensive players on the first day. Sure, they've picked later than the Bucs, but a pick trumps no pick. And the Bucs have only been in a truly premium spot once - the 2005 draft. Freeney was taken earlier than any Buc picked in the 2002-2006 drafts other than Caddy.

The problem has really been that the Colts picks haven't panned out. Freeney and June have been great/good (June was a 6th rounder), Mathis (a 5th), and Bob Sanders flashed signs of being very good (but can't stay healthy). But guys like Gilbert Gardner, Marlin Jackson, Mike Doss, Donald Strickland, Larry Tripplet, etc. are pretty big dissappointments thus far.

In any case, I'd pass on those rankings, which are based on yards - I mean ask yourself this - who was better, the 2000 Ravens or the 2000 Titans. The yards say the Titans, but not a person alive would ever believe they were better than the Ravens. Here are football outsiders' DVOA rankings for both the Bucs O and Indy D since 2002. The 2006 numbers are through week 13. I'm sure both will be worse after accounting for the two terrible games they've just had:

Bucs O, 2002-2006:

21
17
21
19
31

Colts D:

23
15
19
8
26

In any case, I sort of think this is a silly line of argument. I can think of other examples of "guru's" from one side of the ball struggling to recreate their genius as a head coach - Marvin Lewis? Denny Green (in AZ)? Brian Billick? Billick's been at this for 8 years and still can't figure out the combination, even with 5 number 1 picks and some free agents on the offense.

The bottom line is you can't win (except on rare occassions) when your team is bottom of the barrel on either unit. With unbalanced cap teams like the Colts and the Bucs, you just need to get enough out of the weaker one to give the stronger one a chance to win for you. In 2002 and 2005, Gruden he did that. In 2006, he hasn't.

We can talk about "his" players and all that, but I think Gruden's biggest problem has been the inability to stabilize the QB position. Some of that's his fault - within his budget, which has been limited, he gets to pick his guys (to an extent - King and Brad were inherited, Simms may or may not have been Gruden's choice) - other things, like the ridiculous number of injuries are not. I think it's telling that the Bucs best offense under Gruden was the season that Brad started every game. He's had 2-3 QBs playing every other year.

That's why next year is so troubling -there aren't any good vets out there, Simms is a bigger question mark now than he was coming into 2006, and McCown and Gradkowski are semi-experienced young backups.

Great post but you should include how many Super Bowls both team have won in that time span.

[CeriousBuc]

Come on, when are you guys going to finally figure it out? Neither coach (Dungy/Gruden) applied the "genius' title to themselves! The media did it, the same media who annointed Mike Vick as the next great QB. None of the coaches in the league who've had or still have the 'genius' title asked for it, it was the stupid media and of course when said coach falters it the same media who wonders "why is this guy a genius again?"

Stop feeding into the cesspool that the media is and start appreciating the game for what it is a face value.

[Beastie]

Well Dungy has put the Colts top 10 in defense in 2 of his 4 seasons as head coach.

Another lie from the beast--- he has had them 18, 11, 29, 11--- keep fishing you are bound to get one right sooner or later-- even a blind squirrel finds.........

And once again I must remind you that I used pts/g because I keep on forgetting that the amount of yards you allow determines the outcome of the game.

Oh and in terms of points per game they were 2nd in 2005 and 7th in 2003.

Oh and they were 8th in yards in 2003 btw not 11.

[dalbuc]

Come on, when are you guys going to finally figure it out? Neither coach (Dungy/Gruden) applied the "genius' title to themselves! The media did it, the same media who annointed Mike Vick as the next great QB. None of the coaches in the league who've had or still have the 'genius' title asked for it, it was the stupid media and of course when said coach falters it the same media who wonders "why is this guy a genius again?"

Stop feeding into the cesspool that the media is and start appreciating the game for what it is a face value.

Well the thing is Dungy-offensive genius, Gruden offensive-genius whatever. Strip those away and you ask how does the coach's team play. Gruden has half a team right now. His offense is terrible. Dungy was canned because his offense stunk despite the fact that he's a "defensive guy". That didn't make him any less responsible for th total failure of that unit to perform, he's the HC. Gruden is an offensive guy but I don't care about that, what I care about is that his offenses are as bad as the ones he inherited despite upgrades in personnel. That is my gripe. I don't care what your resume says.

[Beastie]

Dungy/Polian have had a tight cap no doubt. But they haven't had the dearth of quality picks like the Bucs, and since Dungy arrived in 2002, they have taken only 3 offensive players on the first day. Sure, they've picked later than the Bucs, but a pick trumps no pick. And the Bucs have only been in a truly premium spot once - the 2005 draft. Freeney was taken earlier than any Buc picked in the 2002-2006 drafts other than Caddy.

The problem has really been that the Colts picks haven't panned out. Freeney and June have been great/good (June was a 6th rounder), Mathis (a 5th), and Bob Sanders flashed signs of being very good (but can't stay healthy). But guys like Gilbert Gardner, Marlin Jackson, Mike Doss, Donald Strickland, Larry Tripplet, etc. are pretty big dissappointments thus far.

In any case, I'd pass on those rankings, which are based on yards - I mean ask yourself this - who was better, the 2000 Ravens or the 2000 Titans. The yards say the Titans, but not a person alive would ever believe they were better than the Ravens. Here are football outsiders' DVOA rankings for both the Bucs O and Indy D since 2002. The 2006 numbers are through week 13. I'm sure both will be worse after accounting for the two terrible games they've just had:

Bucs O, 2002-2006:

21
17
21
19
31

Colts D:

23
15
19
8
26

In any case, I sort of think this is a silly line of argument. I can think of other examples of "guru's" from one side of the ball struggling to recreate their genius as a head coach - Marvin Lewis? Denny Green (in AZ)? Brian Billick? Billick's been at this for 8 years and still can't figure out the combination, even with 5 number 1 picks and some free agents on the offense.

The bottom line is you can't win (except on rare occassions) when your team is bottom of the barrel on either unit. With unbalanced cap teams like the Colts and the Bucs, you just need to get enough out of the weaker one to give the stronger one a chance to win for you. In 2002 and 2005, Gruden he did that. In 2006, he hasn't.

We can talk about "his" players and all that, but I think Gruden's biggest problem has been the inability to stabilize the QB position. Some of that's his fault - within his budget, which has been limited, he gets to pick his guys (to an extent - King and Brad were inherited, Simms may or may not have been Gruden's choice) - other things, like the ridiculous number of injuries are not. I think it's telling that the Bucs best offense under Gruden was the season that Brad started every game. He's had 2-3 QBs playing every other year.

That's why next year is so troubling -there aren't any good vets out there, Simms is a bigger question mark now than he was coming into 2006, and McCown and Gradkowski are semi-experienced young backups.

Compare the Colts D before Dungy.

With Mora they averaged 23rd in Yards and Pts
With Dungy they are averaging 14th in pts and 15th in yards.

He has made a difference over there.

[naplesbuc]

Dungy may or may not have helped Indy's defense but that's not the important question.  Did he bring their defense up to a high enough level to bring a Lombardi to Indy before the window closes on their incredible offense?

Looks like the answer will be no.

[panchovilla]

He's not running that defense.

It doesn't appear that he's running anything in Indy right now.

You're an idiot, Danturdsghost.

[BUCFAN4LIFE]

Another lie from the beast--- he has had them 18, 11, 29, 11--- keep fishing you are bound to get one right sooner or later-- even a blind squirrel finds.........

The ranks are - you'll get variance from some places in how they figure yards, some sites don't subtract sack yardage for instance:
8
10
29
11
19

3 of 5 years he's been above average with no good draft picks, cap hell and no money for FA's. Excuses that should sound familiar.

I'll take NFL.coms-- the official stats according to the league and they were never 8 in Dungy's 1st year as you propose.

As for draft picks and FA money-- Freeny, Doss, June, Sanderd, Brackett, Bethea, Mathis, McFarland (ha).. Yeah he wasn't able to spend anything or acquire throught the draft. You really are FOS.

[Beastie]

For someone to say that the Colts will not win a Championship under Dungy is kind of jumping the gun a little bit dont you think?

Four straight years in the playoffs, One Championship Appearance and a game saving tackle from Big Ben stopped them from getting two. And you are already stating that they arent going to win it?

Come on seriously I'm not going to say that there is no doubt that they will get one but they have one of the best teams if not the best team in league and will have it for years to come. It's football all you need is a few big games.

[CeriousBuc]

Come on, when are you guys going to finally figure it out? Neither coach (Dungy/Gruden) applied the "genius' title to themselves! The media did it, the same media who annointed Mike Vick as the next great QB. None of the coaches in the league who've had or still have the 'genius' title asked for it, it was the stupid media and of course when said coach falters it the same media who wonders "why is this guy a genius again?"

Stop feeding into the cesspool that the media is and start appreciating the game for what it is a face value.

Well the thing is Dungy-offensive genius, Gruden offensive-genius whatever. Strip those away and you ask how does the coach's team play. Gruden has half a team right now. His offense is terrible. Dungy was canned because his offense stunk despite the fact that he's a "defensive guy". That didn't make him any less responsible for th total failure of that unit to perform, he's the HC. Gruden is an offensive guy but I don't care about that, what I care about is that his offenses are as bad as the ones he inherited despite upgrades in personnel. That is my gripe. I don't care what your resume says.

Hey you will not hear any argument about that from me. My problem is that people get all wrapped around the axel about a freaking 'genius' title as if it was self appointed. This is football, it's pretty damn hard to be a genius with things that are intangible. This isn't science, math, english or history, it football and there are so many uncertainties about football that you can be a 'genius' one year and an 'idiot' the next.

[BUCFAN4LIFE]

For someone to say that the Colts will not win a Championship under Dungy is kind of jumping the gun a little bit dont you think?

Four straight years in the playoffs, One Championship Appearance and a game saving tackle from Big Ben stopped them from getting two. And you are already stating that they arent going to win it?

Come on seriously I'm not going to say that there is no doubt that they will get one but they have one of the best teams if not the best team in league and will have it for years to come. It's football all you need is a few big games.

Good jump on their wagon hater and enjoy. They even have a message board for you as well. Just check out Boids recent post he provided the link.