Randy Moss at 5. Smart or Stupid?

[kmitchell]

I have the 5th pick in a 14 team league this year, and am thinking about taking Randy Moss. I know, I know, everyone is supposed to take a running back in the 1st round. I did some research on my own and checked the 1st round running backs from the 2007 season. 10 Running backs were drafted and only 3 reached the top 10 of their position. You are more likely to get a bust "Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson, Larry Johnson" or an injury prone running back then a stud. Randy Moss will not be a bust, he is practically a lock for 15+ TD's and at least 1,200 yards. How many running backs had 15 total td's last year? 2, 3? Moss has the potential to put up the numbers of a 5th pick running back, without the injury risk. Does anyone else have a different opinion? With my #5 I am hoping for Moss, #24 I am hoping for Graham, and #33 Darren McFadden.

[olafberserker]

What about Brady?  I'm usually a RB, RB kind of guy in drafts, but recent years definitely have me thinking that over.

[Freeman 5]

I would say if Brady is at 5 take him. But Moss at 5 that's pushin it.

[kmitchell]

I have an idea for the most part of what the picks in front of me are. LT/Brady/AP/ then the 4th is either Westbrook or Peyton. I just think if Moss puts up 1300 yards and 16 TD's, he will out produce almost every RB, he has almost 0 injury risk, and his downside might be 1000 yards 8 TD's.

[olafberserker]

I wouldn't say 0 injury risk.  I wouldn't take Moss over Westbrook and maybe not Addai either.  Peyton is a toss up depending on your scoring system.  But overall it's worth considering taking Moss.  5 sounds high for a WR, but in that offense it may not be too high for Moss.

[kmitchell]

I really like Westbrook and Addai at 5 too, but they have some downside. I had Addai last year, and he couldn't stay healthy for long, he even got hurt in a preseason game the other day. Dominic Rhodes is back, and will steal carries and TD's. I believe 07 was Addai's best year he will have. I think last year was the peak of Westbrooks performance, unless they can add a stud WR or Offensive lineman, I doubt Westbrook can repeat last year's stats.

Check out Randy Moss' years with the Vikings, then his year with the Patriots, I truly believe he is the 2nd best WR in NFL history.

take Moss.... in an off year, he'll have more tds than any rb not names Tomlinson, Peterson, or Jackson.

[olafberserker]

take Moss.... in an off year, he'll have more tds than any rb not names Tomlinson, Peterson, or Jackson.

Jackson still holding out.  Gotta decide to keep him or not by 10 tonight.  I'll probably do it.  Don't have a whole lot of better otiont.  Unless you recommend Favre.  

[Badabing]

I think it's dumb.  I dont think Moss will have over 20 TDs again next year.  Expect him to have like 1200-1400 yards and 12-15 TDs.  Still a legit #1 WR and maybe still be the #1 WR fantasy WR...but you could probably get similar numbers in the 2nd or maybe even 3rd round.

I also think Brady will toss about 15-20 less TDs.  I wont expect any higher than 35 from him next year.  Just my opinion...

top 4- lt, peterson, jackson, Westbrook

If your picking 5 and say somebody ahead of you takes Tom Brady, then pounce on one of those 4 backs.

If Brady is available, he certainly should be a solid option to choose over Moss.   But also consider Addai or Gore...  Really though, hope that somebody in the top 4 picks Brady so you can grab one of those top 4 backs..

EDIT:  Didn't notice at first you are in a 14 team league...You def have to go RB in the first.  By the time you pick again, you could be looking at #2 backs as your #1....maybe even #3 backs as your #1...

[Booker]

Take a RB. Moss's production will be down this year, and like the other guys said, a 14 team league will be diluted in RBs come next round when you can get guys like Andre Johnson, TO, Larry F, Reggie Wayne or others as your number one wr

[JC510]

If Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook and Addai are gone then yeah take Moss. Stay away from Jackson. ESPN showed all the RBs who've held out in the last 10 years and they all got hurt pretty bad. After that the RBs are pretty much the same. In fact I like alot of the guys ranked 10-20 more than the guys ranked 5-9. Owens, Edwards, Wayne will not make it back to you. You can probably get Jamal Lewis in the 2nd round.

Fantasyfootballcalculator.com has 14 man mock drafts. You can select the 5 slot.

[kmitchell]

Thanks JC510. I am in the draft with coworkers, friends, and family, and have found out it is going LT Brady Manning AP, then I am at 5. Im just going to take Westbrook and hope to get a top 5 WR on the way back maybe.

[TBayXXXVII]

With that many teams and picking that high, you NEED an RB.  What kind of back's do you think you'll get at #24?  Based on ADP's for a 14-team draft... would you rather have Colston and Addai or Moss and Jamal Lewis?  That's pretty much what it boils down to.  Welker could be available in third for you too if you went the Addai route.  It's a 5 RB draft, you are guaranteed to get either LT, AP, Westy, Addai, or SJax.  At #5, Jackson would be a steal... either that or trade down and pick up an extra pick.  Lynch could be had at #10.

[InlandTaipan]

If you haven't had your draft yet then I would rethink the "conventional" wisdom here and come up with a new plan and take Moss and set your team up around him.

[kmitchell]

I've done several mocks and here is my initial draft strategy unless there are some epic runs going on. 5th pick. RB WR WR TE RB QB. In the 5th I am hoping to land either Selvin Young, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, etc. I've noticed in the 6th round, I can either get Hasselbeck, Favre, Bulger, Manning, and Garrard. My ideal team with that format would be Westbrook, Colston, Holmes, Witten, Young, then Favre.