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jameswilder

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: August 12, 2008, 04:01:53 PM

This is an image from a site I visit quite a bit. This is the forecast prediction from one of the computer models for next wednesday. Looks like there is a possibility we might have to be dealing with a possible hurricane.

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/glb00_216.gif

Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy- B. Franklin.

Bucco40

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#1 : August 12, 2008, 05:10:42 PM

The barometer is deffinately low down there in South Florida for that forecast. For A moment I could not tell what I was looking at til I realized it was from the axis of the North Pole. That could develop into something if the water is warm and its really hot. However, it could shift patterns very easily. I would deffinately keep an eye on it but it could turn out to be nothing.



Aye, So we cut Clifton Smith?!?!

Set Course for Tampa Bay! Its time we make Bruce Allen a member of Davy Jones Locker!



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#2 : August 12, 2008, 05:16:57 PM

This is an image from a site I visit quite a bit. This is the forecast prediction from one of the computer models for next wednesday. Looks like there is a possibility we might have to be dealing with a possible hurricane.

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/glb00_216.gif

That image doesn't tell you much about the chances of hurricanes.  You need to look about 1500-2500 miles to the south east.

Just checked NHC, and there are no active storms or depressions in the Atlantic right now.


jameswilder

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#3 : August 12, 2008, 06:07:28 PM

This is an image from a site I visit quite a bit. This is the forecast prediction from one of the computer models for next wednesday. Looks like there is a possibility we might have to be dealing with a possible hurricane.

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/glb00_216.gif

The image I linked is the 216 hour forecast from the present time. The tropical wave listed as 92L is forecast to become a tropical system over the next few days. This tropical model has been pretty accurate as far as prediciting tropical systems this year. There are a variety of models which are factored into the official NHC forecasts, and each year one model seems out perform others, and so far this season this model seems to be pretty good at tropical forecasts.
If you'd like the link to each 12 hour forecast projection for the next week so you can watch the development of the system 2000 miles away, I'd be happy to provide that as well.

Just checked NHC, and there are no active storms or depressions in the Atlantic right now.



Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy- B. Franklin.



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#4 : August 12, 2008, 06:26:14 PM

If there is no active storms or depressions in the Atlantic right now, it unlikely a hurricane will be up on us in seven days time.  There is a weather system down off Mexico but that isn't developing either.  I would rather look at a current image of the SE Atlantic, and SW Caribbean to see what is actually out there now instead of a computer model 9 days out.  We may have a storm heading our way in nine days but its way too early to even discuss it, let alone worry about it.



olafberserker

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#5 : August 12, 2008, 06:30:39 PM

I'm going to Home Depot.  Be back later.   

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#6 : August 12, 2008, 06:32:23 PM

10-4

jameswilder

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#7 : August 12, 2008, 06:53:14 PM

If there is no active storms or depressions in the Atlantic right now, it unlikely a hurricane will be up on us in seven days time. There is a weather system down off Mexico but that isn't developing either. I would rather look at a current image of the SE Atlantic, and SW Caribbean to see what is actually out there now instead of a computer model 9 days out. We may have a storm heading our way in nine days but its way too early to even discuss it, let alone worry about it.

Your comment, it is unlikely a hurricane will be up on us in seven days times, shows me that you are not very familiar with tropical weather systems or forecasts. For 20 years of my life, my occupation depended on the weather here in Florida and understanding forecasting. Just thought I would post something which might benefit those folks which might be in a business which is weather related for their interest. Obviously, you are not interested so why bother posting? Have a nice day.

Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy- B. Franklin.

jameswilder

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#8 : August 12, 2008, 07:09:16 PM

Tracking tropical depressions huh?   Lots of those in Europe I suppose. Look, you aren't interested in this thread other than to come bust on me. So be it.

Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy- B. Franklin.



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#9 : August 12, 2008, 07:13:40 PM

The only two tropical waves out there right now are moving west-northwest.  Neither are developing significantly and on their current paths both will drift further north well before landfall in Florida.  Unless something changes or develops in the next 24 hours its unlikely we will see a hurricane in Tampa next Wednesday.

Oh well, guess I have egg on my face....LOL   8) Anyone got any spare concrete nails long enough to use on 1/2 in ply   ???

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#10 : August 12, 2008, 07:21:57 PM

I've been joking for the last 2 weeks that there would probably be a hurricane next week. It figures that since I'm bringing my 2 daughters for 10 days that something will happen.

jameswilder

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#11 : August 12, 2008, 07:41:35 PM

Tracking tropical depressions huh?   Lots of those in Europe I suppose. Look, you aren't interested in this thread other than to come bust on me. So be it.

I have been in Florida several years.  I actually spent many hours researching hurricanes prior to picking a location to settle in Florida.   Visiting the various weather sites and tracking storms is a little bit of a pastime of mine actually.  At work a couple of years ago some smartass replaced a few name plates replacing our job titles with hobbies and area of expertise.  My new name tag read: "Meteorologist and Hurricane Tracking".


The only two tropical waves out there right now are moving west-northwest. Neither are developing significantly and on their current paths both will drift further north well before landfall in Florida. Unless something changes or develops in the next 24 hours its unlikely we will see a hurricane in Tampa next Wednesday.




You just won't quit will you? First of all, I posted a 216 hr forecast map from a tropical model. In my original post, I used the word possible or possibly TWICE. The particular forecast model shows a POSSIBLE hurricane making landfall in south Florida, NOT Tampa. These are the 1800Z model runs from other models as well:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=92


From the NHC:

WONT41 KNHC 122053
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AS
WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  ANOTHER AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW

I just think you want to argue with me over anything I say. Look man, I'll say this one more time for you. I posted this information for someone who might come to this board and hasn't watched the weather in the past couple of days and was unaware of a  POSSIBLE (once again) system affecting south Florida at the start of next week. People which work outdoors sometimes need multiple days to get their things in order in preparation for a storm. If my posts don't interest you, then simply don't read them.


Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy- B. Franklin.

jameswilder

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#12 : August 12, 2008, 07:56:08 PM

Where did you ever come up with any idea I said 3-5 days? Next Tuesday is 8 days away.

Well I'm sorry that everything I do upsets you. Perhaps when I grow up I can aspire to be as omnipotent as you. I'm done with this discussion with you.

Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy- B. Franklin.

InlandTaipan

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#13 : August 13, 2008, 05:15:19 PM

The latest weather update has next week as a very busy "tropical" week with high chances of Florida effected are high...I was tuning into the local ABC channel here in Tampa, Dennis Phillips is usually better than most around here but that's my opinion...stay tuned

Bayfisher

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#14 : August 13, 2008, 05:45:40 PM

The GFDL model has something right off of Florida East coast in five days. Just hit forward on the link. There is a little wind shear patch around it but if it can clear that it will strengthen.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081312-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Here are the other models.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Here is the wind shear.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
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