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Lamond

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#135 : August 19, 2008, 03:58:29 PM

That video is priceless....saw it on the weather Channel this AM. I think a lot of Floridians overreact to these storms, but I do love seeing a moron get his cummupance.



John Galt?

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#136 : August 19, 2008, 04:06:55 PM

http://www.break.com/index/kite-surfer-badly-owned-by-hurricane-fay.html

Name on the video says it all. Hopefully this guy has better luck next year.

Going for a Darwin Award.


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#137 : August 19, 2008, 04:34:10 PM

    
   Â     
Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:09 PM EDT on August 19, 2008       
Tropical Storm Fay (AKA "The Joker") is pulling a trick that may be unprecedented--significantly intensifying over land, developing a full eyewall. The radar and satellite images of Fay this afternoon (Figures 1 and 2) show a much better-organized storm than the Fay that made landfall this morning. Fay now has a symmetric appearance with a full eyewall, and the winds near the center were sustained at 60 mph this afternoon at Lake Okeechobee. These winds are higher than anything measured at landfall this morning. Remarkably, the pressure has fallen over 10 mb since landfall, and I can't ever recall seeing such a large pressure fall while a storm was over land. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 crossed South Florida and did not weaken significantly, but "The Joker" has significantly intensified. It does happen sometimes that the increased friction over land can briefly act to intensify a hurricane vortex, but this effect is short-lived, once the storm is cut off from its oceanic moisture source. To have a storm intensify over land and maintain that increased intensity while over land for 12 hours is hard to explain. The only thing I can think is that recent rains in Florida have formed large areas of standing water that the storm is feeding off of. Fay is also probably pulling moisture from Lake Okeechobee. Anyone want to write a Ph.D. thesis on this case? Wow.


Figure 1. What's wrong with this picture? Radar image of Fay over Lake Okeechobee.


Figure 2. What's wrong with this picture, too? Satellite image of Fay over Lake Okeechobee. Fay has a distinct eye on both satellite imagery and radar.

Where will Fay go next?
The computer models are now in better agreement that Fay will emerge over the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday, and re-intensify. Given the remarkable ability of Fay to intensify over land, I am more of a believer that Fay could become a hurricane over the Atlantic, as forecast by the GFDL and HWRF models. However, the SHIPS intensity model keeps Fay below hurricane strength, and the very slow motion of the storm while over the ocean will likely stir up cold water from the depths, significantly hampering intensification. Wind shear is expected to be 10-20 knots Thursday and Friday, which should prevent rapid intensification, but allow slow to modest intensification. After stalling out off the coast, all of the models agree that a ridge of high pressure will build back in, forcing Fay to the west over northern Florida or southern Georgia. I continue to support a 60% chance that this turn will occur far enough south that Fay will emerge into the northern Gulf of Mexico early next week, and re-intensify.

Links to follow
Wundermap for Central Florida

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave about 100 0miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has changed little today. This system (94L) shows signs of rotation on visible satellite imagery. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over this disturbance, and is expected to remain about 10 knots through Wednesday. The storm is over warm 28�C waters. Given these moderately favorable conditions, NHC is giving this system a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon. The storm is expected to track west-northwest and be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday night. The wind shear forecast has been flip-flopping from low to high and back to low again over the past two days, so I will cautiously forecast some slow development over the next few days, assuming that the current forecast of 10-15 knots will hold over the next 3-5 days. There is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the northwest of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. This dry air is already interfering with development, and likely will continue to do so over the next three days. The GFDL and HWRF develop 94L into a weak tropical storm.

The next blog will be Wednesday, and may not be until the afternoon. I may have one of the other wunderground meteorologists fill in for me for tomorrow's first blog, then jump in Wednesday evening if Fay looks dangerous.

Jeff Masters

http://english.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1033&tstamp=200808

John Galt?

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#138 : August 19, 2008, 04:55:19 PM

Tough break for Melbourne, but I am glad to say Faye is no longer my problem.


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#139 : August 19, 2008, 04:59:56 PM

http://www.break.com/index/kite-surfer-badly-owned-by-hurricane-fay.html

Name on the video says it all. Hopefully this guy has better luck next year.

Thank you soooo much for that video. It seriously made my day. Hahaha I cant stop laughing.



Aye, So we cut Clifton Smith?!?!

Set Course for Tampa Bay! Its time we make Bruce Allen a member of Davy Jones Locker!

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#140 : August 19, 2008, 05:11:39 PM

Fay could be doing a comeback...

There is a reason some have nicknammed Fay the "Joker." A few long-term computer models are now saying this storm could exit Melbourne, hit Jacksonville as a hurricane, go all the way across to Pensacola, go back into the Gulf of Mexico, and restrengthen.

So dont let your guard down just yet....


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#141 : August 20, 2008, 01:04:07 AM

Yeah, it looks like this system might end up making 3 or possibly 4 landfalls on Florida's coasts as a tropical system before it's done. It was amazing to watch this system 12 hours after landfall today continue to increase in strength over land. This has been one of the most interesting systems I've ever watched.
Once Fay is gone, I'm taking this thread down and I won't be posting any more weather related threads in this forum any longer. I'm certain that will make lots of folks happy.

Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy- B. Franklin.



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#142 : August 20, 2008, 01:24:49 AM

Yeah, it looks like this system might end up making 3 or possibly 4 landfalls on Florida's coasts as a tropical system before it's done. It was amazing to watch this system 12 hours after landfall today continue to increase in strength over land. This has been one of the most interesting systems I've ever watched.

It has been a very interesting system, very unpredictable, and might still have a surprise or two in store. 

Once Fay is gone, I'm taking this thread down and I won't be posting any more weather related threads in this forum any longer. I'm certain that will make lots of folks happy.

This forum always has tropical storm threads, with or without you.  The insight you bring is much appreciated and would be missed.


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#143 : August 21, 2008, 01:05:56 AM

This storm is crazy. It will not die. It is sitting off the coast right now sucking up moisture to dump back on Florida tomorrow. They said that it may move West or possibly Southwest which would mean rain for the Tampa Bay area.  I can't believe that with a tropical storm as close as it was, the Bay area received almost no rain.  They said somewhere near Melbourne they were getting over 25 inches.  :o :o

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#144 : August 21, 2008, 08:34:03 AM

And keep your eyes on the next wave coming out in the Atlantic. Models show it could be heading towards Florida.... and this one is expected to be a real hurricane.


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#145 : August 21, 2008, 12:41:56 PM

94L is undergoing some significant wind sheer right now but the Euro model which has been pretty good this season, does forecast a hurricane on the eastern part of cuba by Sat, the 31st. Whether that happens remains to be seen.
But what is more important is there is a MJO (Madeen Julian Oscillation) pulse forecast to be moving through in the next 30 days.

Sure feel badly for those folks on the east coast. What a mess. I can't get over the number of parents that are allowing their children to go out and play in all that nasty flood water.

Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy- B. Franklin.

cyberdude557

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#146 : August 21, 2008, 03:21:13 PM

Not only is the flood water dirty but lakes and rivers have overflowed meaning alligators and snakes are being flooded out of their homes and into the streets....along with god knows how many other animals and insects.

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#147 : August 21, 2008, 05:40:33 PM

Not only is the flood water dirty but lakes and rivers have overflowed meaning alligators and snakes are being flooded out of their homes and into the streets....along with god knows how many other animals and insects.

I know. There is a lake in my neighborhood and 10 years ago we had a tropical system, just a depression, affect SW Florida and my house had 14 inches of rain in 3 days. The lake overflowed and I saw floating balls of fire ants all rafted together riding on top of the water streaming down the street. Followed right behing by a bunch of kids on a skim board towed from an ATV. The Jerry Springer show will never run out of possible guests.

Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy- B. Franklin.

DBrooksIsMyDaddy

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#148 : August 21, 2008, 08:06:52 PM

Yeah, it looks like this system might end up making 3 or possibly 4 landfalls on Florida's coasts as a tropical system before it's done. It was amazing to watch this system 12 hours after landfall today continue to increase in strength over land. This has been one of the most interesting systems I've ever watched.
Once Fay is gone, I'm taking this thread down and I won't be posting any more weather related threads in this forum any longer. I'm certain that will make lots of folks happy.
I hope you do post threads about any other storms threatening Florida.  I work long night shifts, and we get busier during storms, so this has been an interesting way to keep updated.  It seems that before and during big storms, all the pregnant women deliver.  The lower the barometric pressure, the busier we get.  I just worked the past 3 nights, and it was insane.  One couple did name their baby Fay, even though we've been lucky here in Tampa so far.
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