Keep an eye to the skies next week in Florida

[jameswilder]

I certainly don't want a repeat of 04/05.
4 years ago today almost nearly to the hour, I was dealing with the damage hurricane Charlie left behind, after making landfall 17 miles from my house.

I forgot what today was, I lived in Port Charlotte when Charlie came through the harbour. Everyone thought it was going to Tampa (including me). I moved a bit further inland after that mess.

Yes, that was a crazy day. I had several friends on Captiva and northern Pine Island which had their homes destroyed. I just recently adopted a cat from a family in PC which live on the north side of the harbor and haven't been able to recover since Charlie as they lost their business during the storm, massive home damage,  and now have lost their home to foreclosure.

[jameswilder]

TS Fay has just been named and it looks according to the forecast that the west coast of Florida could be under the gun for some nasty weather on Tuesday of this coming week.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203113.shtml?5day#contents

That path is fine by me.  Moving over Dominican and Cuba will prevent it from developing into anything significant.   The path last night was well to the east, so hopefully its going to get pushed further west as time goes by. 

[DBrooksIsMyDaddy]

The latest weather update has next week as a very busy "tropical" week with high chances of Florida effected are high...I was tuning into the local ABC channel here in Tampa, Dennis Phillips is usually better than most around here but that's my opinion...stay tuned

I like Paul Dellegato (sp?) from FOX in Tampa because he seems to be the most level-headed.  Some of these guys (not Phillips, but others) can send you straight to the Xanax with their "headed straight into the mouth of Tampa Bay!" predictions.

I like Paul Dellegato (sp?) from FOX in Tampa because he seems to be the most level-headed.  Some of these guys (not Phillips, but others) can send you straight to the Xanax with their "headed straight into the mouth of Tampa Bay!" predictions.

LOL...that is exactly why I don't watch those guys. 

[DBrooksIsMyDaddy]

I like Paul Dellegato (sp?) from FOX in Tampa because he seems to be the most level-headed.  Some of these guys (not Phillips, but others) can send you straight to the Xanax with their "headed straight into the mouth of Tampa Bay!" predictions.

LOL...that is exactly why I don't watch those guys. 

With Charley, I was working in my Tampa hospital that night, and the anxiety level of the staff and patients was off the charts.  Everyone had the tv on, and we were expecting to be slammed.  One of the older, quite interesting, nurses held a prayer vigil and said something like "Lord, this storm won't hit Tampa, and it won't hurt too many people where it does hit."  She was really bossy, and spoke for about 10 minutes (she was studying to be a minister), and 2 hours later the storm took a hard and unexpected right.  
I'm not that religious, but I gotta give ole Lola, RN, some props.

[jameswilder]

Well, rest easy folks, mjs is the king of his cubicle at work, known as the hurricane predictor. He knows all, and has laid down the decree, Tampa is fine. The rest of those on this board from other parts of the state, he could care less.

[biffbeaumont]

I like Paul Dellegato (sp?) from FOX in Tampa because he seems to be the most level-headed.  Some of these guys (not Phillips, but others) can send you straight to the Xanax with their "headed straight into the mouth of Tampa Bay!" predictions.

LOL...that is exactly why I don't watch those guys. 

Being a weatherman is the only job  you where you can get paid to be wrong 50% of the time.....

[Bayfisher]

Google Earth has a great overlay feature for models. The NHC is bright green in the middle.

[jameswilder]

You love to manipulate people's postings, and I've seen this in several threads over the past few weeks.
Last week, you said there was NO WAY a hurricane would hit Tampa. I never predicted that, in fact I never mentioned Tampa, I mentioned FLORIDA. I suppose the center of your universe revolves around your house in Tampa.

Once again, and for the last time cubicle predictor, I was not worrying folks, look at my thread and see how many times I've used the word "possible".
I don't know why you wish to paint me as such an irresponsible person posting information here. Aren't you the former member M-j-s? The naturalized US citizen from Europe? I believe thats what you said in the original Olympic thread you started and then deleated it because of Team USA homers which were upsetting you?

Well, I'm a lifelong resident (42yrs) of SW Florida and have spent 20 years of my life tracking tropical systems and all you seem hell bent on is refuting anything which comes out of my keyboard like I'm some teenage kid. I've experienced more tropical systems than you have from your life over in Europe and am very well aware what these storms can do. Especially when folks like you take a quick look at tampabay 10 or fox 13 at 11pm and figure everythings okay.

You came to this thread with a chip on your shoulder. Three times I said if you didn't like what I said, don't bother reading it. But no, you come back for more. And you must have highlighted it, because as soon as I post, POOF, there you are with your highly scientific response.  

I suggest you go back to the work cubical pool on tropical systems, and continue on with the joke threads.

[Bayfisher]

To use words from the tropical forums. Some like to downcast and others like to wishcast.  Some models have been fairly accurate the past few years.  The first storm of this season was called way out.  It should be used as a guide anyway. No one was trying to be a hero.

[jameswilder]

Google Earth has a great overlay feature for models. The NHC is bright green in the middle.

Bayfisher,
there is a good site for the latest plots on SFWMD website as well. I've been a bit concerned with the model shifts which started around 8/15 0006Z last night. I believe the best scenerio for the west coast of Florida had been a rapid development of Fay when the thunderstorms blossomed as they did yesterday. I believe the interaction with Hispanola is going to slow the development, and I've watched that island rip hurricanes apart in the past, but this seems to be a bit of a different type of storm, IMO. The LLC and MLC have had a difficult time to stack up but the IR images this afternoon as the area should be at Diurnal Min, thunderstorms were still flaring. I'm wondering if the lack of stacking of the LCC might not be a hindrance for the development of the system as it exits the island.HH reported CC this afternoon, but I still think this storm is in genesis.  I read some recon data from the HH flight this afternoon and surface winds in the NE quad were recorded at 58 mph. This is a strange storm, and I've never seen anything like this, and many meteros I know, agree.

I really believe the next 36 hours will determine what happens with Fay. This storm has undergone infusion of Sahara dust, dry air, wind sheer, and everytime it looks like it's going to die, comes back with a vengenge. I'm concerned that this might emerge off of Cuba as a weak tropical storm, and after 24 hours off the shallow, hot waters off SW Fla coast, becomes a major system.
The ECWMF model last wednesday when I posted this thread, had a 135 mph hurricane making landfall just north of St Pete.

According to some on this board, I'm irresponsible for posting such information.


Thanks for the link.

[DBrooksIsMyDaddy]

Fay is my middle name, BTW.  Spelled that way, too, family name.

Three times I said if you didn't like what I said, don't bother reading it.

My intention was never to deliberately contradict or upset you.  I apologize if I have upset you, that was not my intention.

I am genuinely interested in this topic. What sites do you usually use.  I tend to go to NOAA first but this site is OK:  http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[Bayfisher]

I posted these a while back.

NWS- National Mosaic-just click anywhere for local
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

Wunderground Tropical section and blog
http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/

Golden Triangle, Hurricanes
http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm

Bear Paws, Hurricanes
http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html

Hurricane Model Runs
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Storm Track, Hurricane blog
http://www.thestormtrack.com/

NWS Sat. Imagery
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Storm Junkie Tropical
http://www.stormjunkie.com/pages/trophome/trophome.html

Tropical Storm Forum-great info
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=59

Navy
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/main.pl?tropical

Hurricane Tracking- Ibiseye
http://www.ibiseye.com/

MyFox Hurricane
http://media.myfoxtampabay.com/myfoxhurricane/index_video.html

Live Nexrad Florida
http://radar.aprsfl.net/index.php?site=KTBW&mode=dz&animated=yes12