NFC South

[ZenBuc]

No team in the South has ever posted back-to-back winning seasons. Makes sense seeing that no team has won the division 2 years in a row.  Let's hope we buck both trends this year.


   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007
TB   12-4   7-9   5-11    11-5     4-12       9-7
                  
ATL    9-6-1   5-11    11-5   8-8     7-9      4-12
                  
NO   9-7    8-8     8-8     3-13      10-6        7-9
                  
CAR   7-9   11-5   7-9   11-5      8-8       7-9



What does this say about the South? Is it so competitive that there is little margin for error? Any minor let down in play, injuries, etc.. are too much to overcome? Or are all the teams just horribly inconsistent?

[Magnaccia]

It say's after 6 years, in a division with 4 teams, it's a little too early to make up facts like that and have them hold water.


When the NFC South is 40 years old and no team has been able to repeat at the top, then it's interesting.


The media makes too big a deal about meaningless factoids.

[1sparkybuc]

The worst to first aspect ends this year. The fowlgoons will finish last again by most accounts. Hopefully the Bucs start a streak of many division crowns.

[Bucstopshere5]

The worst to first aspect ends this year. The fowlgoons will finish last again by most accounts. Hopefully the Bucs start a streak of many division crowns.

I really hope the bucs start that trend too! If we can not give up draft picks, and make sound drafts there is no reason why we shouldnt be able to. We have a good control on our cap situation and will be able to continue that with smart buisness moves. Im really excitied about this franchise and not just for the up and coming year but many to come!

[alldaway]

The Saints could pull away with the division at the start with a streak of wins due to their high octane play.  If not then it comes down to the two smash mouth black and blue teams in the division....Bucs and Panthers for the division crown.  The Falcons will be spoilers though despite some people believing they will not win more than two games. 

[The Q]

When you really look at the NFC South, the BUCS have dominated....they won the title THREE times in Six years.
That is interesting to me. Now, this year, I look for the BUCS to break the curse of worst to first and post BACK-TO-BACK TITLES.

[Feel Real Good]

It's pretty much been a case where there are no super teams (2002 Bucs were a super team obviously) and each year comes down to one player or unit performing above what they would normally be capable of.

2003 Carolina: last gasp for Steven Davis.
2004 Atlanta: Vick and defense got hot.
2005 Tampa: Griese, Simms, Anthony Davis, and Carnell all performed better than any other year. 
2006 New Orleans: defense played way better than its individual parts.
2007 Tampa: Graham had a career year but mostly the other three teams were abnormally terrible.

[Badabing]

which is why it's easy to pick us to win it again as Buc Fans, but hard for any other person to pick us to win it.

[techstar25]

This division just has 4 VERY evenly matched teams.
If Vick was healthy and still playing (and thus Petrino still in Atlanta), even the Falcons would probably have a chance at the division this year.
The division just ebbs and flows based on who can and cannot overcome injuries.

Take the NFC West for the opposite example: If Matt Hasselbeck goes down with injury, Seattle probably still wins division. They are just that much better than everyone else.
If Jack Delhomme or Drew Brees goes down (or Vick is banned), those teams are OUT, no question about it.

[cyberdude557]

The Bucs are the only team in the division with a Lombardi. That's the stat that really matters. We've also won this division 3 times in 6 years ('02, '05, '07). Funny though that we are the team that gets the least respect.

which is why it's easy to pick us to win it again as Buc Fans, but hard for any other person to pick us to win it.

This team's win totals aren't going to be determined primarily by the QB.  It still the defense.  All three QBs at this time are about equal (assuming Jeff cleans up the rust).  The O is gonna produce roughly the same under any of them IMO.

[Badabing]

caradoc..what on earth are you talking about?  I did not mention anything about any positions.

EDIT: I like ya don't get me wrong, but my signature is just seeing if it will be true...

If so, I look like the moron and you look like the Genius....


if not, I am still the villian and you just had a bad prediction...

Eitherway...its a No-Lose situation for you.

[CurtR1995]

which is why it's easy to pick us to win it again as Buc Fans, but hard for any other person to pick us to win it.

This team's win totals aren't going to be determined primarily by the QB.  It still the defense.  All three QBs at this time are about equal (assuming Jeff cleans up the rust).  The O is gonna produce roughly the same under any of them IMO.

What separates the three QB's is not the positive plays, but rather the negative plays. 

Garcia doesn't make many negative plays in terms of turnovers and sacks.  Griese is a turnover machine, and if LM were to start 16 games, he would likely challenge the times sacked record. 

The Buc O is by design a plodding move the chains, eat the clock type of O.  So any negatives plays will lower the margin of error to unacceptable levels. 

In the end, going 3 and out because you're afraid to do anything other than check it down, because you held the ball too long to hit the right guy, or because you're happy feet ran out from your protection and you had to throw it away, it's still 3 and out.

Not making mistakes is a good thing.  There is, however, a certain minimum threshold of positive production that you have to cross.  Jeff barely crossed it last year, so he's not that far ahead of the other guys.

[CurtR1995]

In the end, going 3 and out because you're afraid to do anything other than check it down, because you held the ball too long to hit the right guy, or because you're happy feet ran out from your protection and you had to throw it away, it's still 3 and out.

Not making mistakes is a good thing.  There is, however, a certain minimum threshold of positive production that you have to cross.  Jeff barely crossed it last year, so he's not that far ahead of the other guys.

I am not disagreeing with you per se.  Garcia is a back up QB miscast as a starter in Tampa.  He makes good decisions, understands the WCO, is tough to sack, and the team seems to respond well to him.  He is 38 and wasn't exactly Brett Favre to begin with in terms of ability and strength. 

LM and BG are more physically talented to be sure, although that isn't saying much.  The issue is that LM and BG make too many mistakes to outweigh their highly limited ability to make big plays.   

Throw in that the offense in general isn't a big play offense to begin with, and you simply are going to have to expect to have 3 good drives a game, and make little to no mistakes for the Bucs to win consistently.