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yuccaneers

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: September 09, 2008, 03:08:52 PM

What really cost the Bucs the game aside from the defense giving up an unusual amount of long passing plays was there inability to convert third downs. When you convert two of 12 on third down or 16% you wont win in this league. This is the biggest factor in why the team lost the game. There inability to convert on third downs, even with giving up the big plays on defense the team was either leading or winning at various points throughout the football game.

If they dont find a way to fix this heading into the game this Sunday with the Falcons, you can bet that the Falcon will use the same game plan all season long that they used against the Lions pound the football and play good sound defense while not asking there rookie signal caller to do to much.

This could really hamper the Bucs after seeing the amount of missed tackles vs the Saints which could lead to even less TOP for the offense to try and get things turn around.


DanTurksGhost

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#1 : September 09, 2008, 03:11:01 PM

I disagree that it was the single biggest factor. I think you need to look at those 3rd down situations in context. The number, on the surface, stinks, but there's a little more to it than that.

sammy8887

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#2 : September 09, 2008, 03:12:28 PM

They showed the stat at one point, probably in the 2nd half, of being 0-for-7 in 3rd down conversions...not good...

yuccaneers

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#3 : September 09, 2008, 03:15:09 PM

If you cant pick up yards in chunks and you are trying to dink and dunk your way down the field and you continually fail to convert on third downs you cant sustain drives which leads to a field position disadvantage and your defense being on the football field longer then they should be.

If you disagree explain rather then throwing out one liners all the time.


ryan24

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#4 : September 09, 2008, 03:18:19 PM

The way the Bucs typically play, Yuc is correct. The Bucs will really struggle without a lot of 3rd down conversions. That overall stat is not always telling. For instance, on a team such as New England with Brady, the stat probably means little.....certainly less than it does the Bucs....because they make a lot of big plays.

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yuccaneers

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#5 : September 09, 2008, 03:22:50 PM

Which the Bucs dont and will never be consider a big play team which is why third down conversion is so important to Grudens offense because he repeatedly ask his offense to slowly move the football down the football field which is a recipe for disaster with this bunch having to continually make 11-13 play drives just to score TD's and when you dont convert third down chances it puts more pressure on the defense to make things happen and at this time the team isnt armed on either side of the football to play the brand Gruden is asking it to.


TheRealist

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#6 : September 09, 2008, 03:23:59 PM

I think if we see Griese this weekend that percent will go up, yes he may dink and dunk, but he does a damn good job of it if there is such a thing. On top of that he can throw the ball farther more accurately

sammy8887

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#7 : September 09, 2008, 03:25:09 PM

On top of that he can throw the ball farther more accuately

I take it you're basing this on years past...

TheRealist

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#8 : September 09, 2008, 03:27:31 PM

Im not saying Griese is great, but it's not hard to throw it more accurately that Garcia, anything past 10 yards and his accurracy goes way down

finnbluebucs

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#9 : September 09, 2008, 03:32:04 PM

A lot of the 3rd downs that we were unable to complete were as a result of penalties. Not many teams in the league can convert 3rd and 15's or greater.

\"We are frustrated at not making the playoffs. It is a good start. That is all it is. It is a good start for something that we are going to be in the future. - Josh Freeman

Simms2Clayton05

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#10 : September 09, 2008, 03:33:54 PM

Thing with griese is that he throws stupid INTS that go 60 yards the other way. Griese isnt too bad at throwing the long throws. I mean he could hit Galloway a couple of times here and there. Mainly though he is MORE accurate throwing the short throws. Which is not a bad thing. Since we are a WCO that is required. Id like to see our offense open up too but id rather see us chew up 8 mins or more of the clock and score than throw a quick td anyday. Problem is our offense is that we have to get in front early and our defense cant give up that many yards. Our team depends on having the other teams defense out there as long as possible and our defense being on the field as short of time as possible. That is how we win. When we lose our defense is on the field longer than expected and our offense is out there very little. So yes winning the 3rd down battles on both sides of the ball is very important to our teams success.

DanTurksGhost

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#11 : September 09, 2008, 03:37:37 PM

If you disagree explain rather then throwing out one liners all the time.

Looking inside the numbers, you'll see that the Bucs were 2-of-12 on third down. However, in two of those cases they scored points (two Matt Bryant FG's) so, even though they don't count as a conversion, they in fact resulted in scores.

Now, examining the first half 3rd down situations, more than half of them were not what would be considered "manageable" third down situations. They were third and 23, third and 20, and third and 9. That left two manageable third down situations. In addition in the second half, they faced third and 17 and third and 11. Most teams have a less than even success rate facing those D&D's.

Additionally, third down conversion numbers can be misleading if a team converts regularly on earlier downs. The Bucs had a total of 12 drives, and had 12 third down opportunities. Only four of those 12 were 3-and-out, meaning 67% of their drives were extended beyond 3 plays by conversions on earlier downs, or other circumstances.

When you face third and 23, 20, 17, 11, and 9 your success rate is very likely going to be low. So while the number looks bad on the surface, even if you add the two FG's which would technically make it 4-of-12, it isn't unexpected. Failure to convert on those long third down situations wasn't the single most important factor in the loss, but it may be rather stated that putting themselves in those situations is perhaps the single most important factor in the loss.

Had the Bucs faced 3rd and 5, 4, 3, 3 and 2 instead of 23, 20, 17, 11, and 9, I'd wager their 3rd down conversion numbers would have looked a lot better.

marlevr

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#12 : September 09, 2008, 03:38:07 PM

Too many 3rd and forever downs. Penalties killed the team in this game.

1- 3rd and 7
2- 3rd and 9
3- 3rd and 23 - holding and sack
4- 3rd and 20 - personal foul
5- 3rd and 6
6- 3rd and 17 - offensive pass interference
7- 3rd and 2
8- 3rd and 5
9- 3rd and 9 - 1st conversion
10- 3rd ad 2 - TD
11- 3rd and 11 - ineligible man downfield
12- 3rd and 6

TheRealist

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#13 : September 09, 2008, 03:41:23 PM

Thing with griese is that he throws stupid INTS that go 60 yards the other way. Griese isnt too bad at throwing the long throws. I mean he could hit Galloway a couple of times here and there. Mainly though he is MORE accurate throwing the short throws. Which is not a bad thing. Since we are a WCO that is required. Id like to see our offense open up too but id rather see us chew up 8 mins or more of the clock and score than throw a quick td anyday. Problem is our offense is that we have to get in front early and our defense cant give up that many yards. Our team depends on having the other teams defense out there as long as possible and our defense being on the field as short of time as possible. That is how we win. When we lose our defense is on the field longer than expected and our offense is out there very little. So yes winning the 3rd down battles on both sides of the ball is very important to our teams success.


Your right....he does have a history of throwing interceptins, but so did Favre and everybody wanted him here, I really want to see that Bucs run the ball 30 times this game, up this middle, outside like that play was on the 45 yarder by Graham, they need to switch it up, running effectively is the foundation of a ball control offense

DanTurksGhost

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#14 : September 09, 2008, 03:42:43 PM

Your right....he does have a history of throwing interceptins, but so did Favre and everybody wanted him here, I really want to see that Bucs run the ball 30 times this game, up this middle, outside like that play was on the 45 yarder by Graham, they need to switch it up, running effectively is the foundation of a ball control offense

And let's run out of the shotgun and run with three wides, and let's put Dexter in the game and run a couple of reverses, one fake and one real.
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