To Lose or Not to Lose

With the 4-11 Buccaneers set to conclude their season this Sunday. many Tampa Bay fans across cyberspace have voiced hopes of a loss in the game against playoff-bound Seattle.

Their reasoning, of course, has everything to do with the Bucs' draft status come April. But this fans refuses to accept this line of thought, and here is why....



For starters, allow me to express the die-hard within. It is difficult, if not impossible, for me to understand how any true fan can ever root against their team. After all, "fan" is the abbreviation for "fanatic". And to me, if you are fanatic about your franchise, the one thing you never do is wish a loss upon them. It just does not make sense.

I understand the presumptions involved here, I really do. The thought process is that, with another loss, Tampa Bay will maintain a higher draft position, following a crappy season. While there is truth to this, it is, in the case of the Bucs, a substantially weak argument.

For the sake of argument, we must make a few assumptions regarding the Week 17 schedule.

At the present time, there are a apair of 2-13 teams, Oakland and Detroit. Those teams will pick 1-2 in the draft (barring trades of course), as neither of them can match the final records of the Bucs and Browns, who stand a 4-11 currently.

The best record that Tampa Bay can finish with is 5-11. Washington (at home vs. the Giants), Cleveland or Houston (face each other in Houston), and Arizona (at San Diego), could all finish with 5-11 records.

With these scenarios in mind, it would appear that the Buccaneers will likely pick no lower than sixth in the 2007 draft.

Conversely, it would seem that Tampa Bay could pick no higher than third. The math may well be off by a position either way, but it is a safe bet that the Bucs will be anywhere from #3 to #6 come draft day. And this is assuming that there are no trades involved.

With the focus remaining squarely on the draft, a few things need to be realized here.

The difference between a #3 and a #6 is minimal because different teams have different needs/priorities. For instance, Oakland and Detroit are in desperate need of quarterbacks. And while the draft almost always offers up its share of surprises, it would be borderline stunning if either of these 2 teams draft any position other than QB. Two marquee QB's headline the next draft in Troy Smith and Brady Quinn. And should the Browns draft ahead of the Bucs, they may well look at the QB position as well. The same could actually be said of the Houston Texans, as current signal-caller, David Carr, seems to be falling out of favor. Of the likely top 5 in the 2007 draft, as many as 4 teams could be shopping for a new field general.

Where the Bucs are concerned, I just feel there are enough holes that need filling that their draft status in 2007 won't be hindered one way or the other, regardless if they win or lose against the Seahawks Sunday. With that in mind, I might be in the minority of fans that will continue to root hard for a Tampa Bay victory.

With all of the defensive needs of the Buccaneers, as well as upgrading the WR position, Tampa Bay is in position to obtain a quality player with their initial pick, whether they finish 4-12 or 5-11.

And with CAP money available for the first time in what seems eons, who is to say that the Bucs don't actually trade down for added picks? After all, this is not a star-studded draft class anyway.

The bottom line is that too much emphasis is being placed on the draft status in my opinion. Where you pick is not nearly as important as who you pick. I am quite certain that at 31 teams in this league never thought all that much about one Marques Colston. I am equally as certain that the New Orleans Saints are quite pleased with the last player taken in the 2006 draft. No one knows where the next budding star will surface. And teams falter in their calculations at times. Reference Ryan Leaf for example.

From my perspective, I'll sit back and watch the season finale this weekend, rooting hard for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to defeat the Seattle Seahawks.

I'll leave the draft business on a shelf somewhere for the next 4 months.

I agree 100% Prefer. And how anyone can want their favorite team to lose is beyond me.

[GrudenFan63]

Prefer, as I said in another thread, all you have to do is look at Alstott, Barber, Lynch, Sapp, and Brooks. Sapp and Brooks were picked outside of the top 10. All the rest were either second or third round picks. Meanwhile, Charles McRae (hailed a pretty good player coming out in '91) was picked #7 in '91. He was a bust.

[Booger]

I agree 100% Prefer. And how anyone can want their favorite team to lose is beyond me.

Well, maybe because a loss is better for the team than a win.  How much pride and "learning to win" can come from defeating the Seahawks back-up players anyways? A 4-4 record at home sounds kinda nice, but does it really matter?  The best thing for the Bucs is to finish 4-12 and get the best possible draft position in each round.  The difference between #3 and #6 is huge, especially in a trade down scenario.

I agree 100% Prefer. And how anyone can want their favorite team to lose is beyond me.

Well, maybe because a loss is better for the team than a win.  How much pride and "learning to win" can come from defeating the Seahawks back-up players anyways? A 4-4 record at home sounds kinda nice, but does it really matter?  The best thing for the Bucs is to finish 4-12 and get the best possible draft position in each round.  The difference between #3 and #6 is huge, especially in a trade down scenario.

We could very well pick a bust at either slot. Add to that this FO's suspect talent evaluation.

[zed]

If we win, and Cleveland wins, and Arizona loses as well as Washington, we could end up picking 7th.

[GrudenFan63]

The difference between #3 and #6 can be huge; yes. It can be a #3 Barry Sanders or a #6 Broderick Thomas. However, it can also be a #3 Bennie Blades or a #6 Tim Brown.

[DefenseWins]

For the better leverage in the draft and long-term scope of the organaization, a loss is more beneficial to the Bucs.

For the team to want to to lose is a whole other story. That would be disgusting. Our team should always fight to win.

[zed]

I don't think Seattle will lay down like a dog.  They've lost three in a row.  They backed into the playoffs.  I bet they're going to play to win, because in the playoffs it's one and done.  They better get the ball rolling.

I don't think Seattle will lay down like a dog.  They've lost three in a row.  They backed into the playoffs.  I bet they're going to play to win, because in the playoffs it's one and done.  They better get the ball rolling.

Interesting point.  It might very well behoove the Seahawks to play well.  If they feel that they have momentum on the line, they may play their starters longer...and win!

However, the Bucs have turned a corner and are making a late push for the playoffs.

WAY late. 

The difference between #3 and #6 can be huge; yes. It can be a #3 Barry Sanders or a #6 Broderick Thomas. However, it can also be a #3 Bennie Blades or a #6 Tim Brown.

1999 is a good example: Cincy picked Akilli Smith at #3, and St.Louis grabbed a future HoF at #6 in Torry Holt.

[gharen]

Sometimes you have to look past immediate gratification and look at what's best for the long term. For the Bucs, losing this game is probably best for there long term. I hope a lot of the young guys step up and have great games to build on for next year .

The difference between #3 and #6 is huge, especially in a trade down scenario.

Quoted for truth ^ ^^  That is something many are over looking.  

Yes we can get a good payer at 6th spot, and they might turn out better than the guy we might get with the 3rd pick.  Being in 3rd spot opens up the door to a trade down a few spots, an extra 2nd round pick and maybe even an extra 1st or 2nd round pick in next years draft.  Look at what the Chargers have done in recent years, basically manipulated the draft and helped build a great team.

[Shag]

Looking at old drafts doesn't really matter right now. The thing that matters is what this draft looks like. There are 4 top players and then a dropoff. We want a chance at one of those guys, and might not get it at 6th. Like somebody else said, it matters even more for trading purposes. If some team wanted to trade up with us we would gain another 2nd rounder at least.

[alldaway]

As big of a fan I am of Gaines I want the Bucs to win. It does not matter if look at the draft as a whole becuase in round 2 and so on they rotate it anyways the order at the top.