PEWTER REPORT - 2009 FIRST ROUND MOCK

[HughC]

I may have as big, or even bigger question mark with LaDainian Tomlinson at #7, than Brady at #2.

[PewterReportWH]

So, if you are as sad as me knowing that with the end of the NFL regular season also brings the end of another year in fantasy football, then I have given you a little something here to look forward to.

Here is an early first round mock for 2009.

Oh, and in case you guys are wondering, I will be doing running a whole NEW fantasy football part of the website starting this year.

WH

Round 1

1.   Adrian Peterson (RB – MIN)
2.   Michael Turner (RB – ATL)
3.   Maurice Jones-Drew (RB – JAC)
4.   Brian Westbrook (RB – PHI)
5.   DeAngelo Williams (RB – CAR)
6.   Matt Forte (RB – CHI)
7.   LaDainian Tomlinson (RB – SD)
8.   Marion Barber (RB – DAL)
9.   Chris Johnson (RB – TEN)
10.   Frank Gore (RB – SF)
11.   Drew Brees (QB – NO)
12.   Clinton Portis (RB – WAS)

[kmitchell]

It is still too early for a mock because offseason actions affects players value a lot. An example is Thomas Jones.
Here is my early mock draft.

1.   Adrian Peterson
2.   Tom Brady
3.   Michael Turner
4.   DeAngelo Williams
5.   Brian Westbrook
6.   Clinton Portis
7.   Marion Barber
8.   Thomas Jones
9.   LaDainian Tomlinson
10. Drew Brees
11. Frank Gore
12. Randy Moss

[olafberserker]

Tom Brady at 2?  Are you out of your mind?  I'm not sure that Barber is a 1st rounder next year either.  Where's the love for Steve Slaton?

[PewterReportWH]

Tom Brady at 2?  Are you out of your mind?  I'm not sure that Barber is a 1st rounder next year either.  Where's the love for Steve Slaton?

Yeah, Brady at 2 is very funny! These are not my rankings by any means, just a quick look at how the first round will probably go. I have Slaton going first in the second round.

[kmitchell]

Tom Brady at 2?� Are you out of your mind?  I'm not sure that Barber is a 1st rounder next year either.  Where's the love for Steve Slaton?

Tom Brady threw 4,806 yards and 50 TD's in 2007. That was the highest scoring fantasy player from any season ever. The best QB this year threw 5,000 yards and only 34 TD's. If Brady is healthy to start the season, you would have to be out of your mind to pass him up, he is the most talented QB to ever play the game.

I would have Slaton in the beginning of the 2nd round.

Curious, who would you take above Brady?

[olafberserker]

3 things ... I almost never take a QB in the first round.  Secondly ... there's speculation he won't be ready to start the season ... thirdly, he's not even close to the most talented QB to play the game, but that's another issue all together.

[kmitchell]

If Brady starts week 1, what running backs would you take above him? I would rather have a HOF caliber QB throwing to Moss and Welker all day, over an injury prone running back.

[PewterReportWH]

If Brady starts week 1, what running backs would you take above him? I would rather have a HOF caliber QB throwing to Moss and Welker all day, over an injury prone running back.

I think that is kind of the point. He PROBABLY will not be ready by the start of the season and even if he is, do you really think that after rehabbing his knee and being out of footbal for over a year that he will be able to match that great 2007 season? My money is on NO, but hey I am not the one wanting to draft him that high. If he is healthy, he might go in the second round, but I would rather take him in the 3rd. There is now too much talent around the league at the quarterback position to take him that high. Just look at the numbers Brees, Warner, Rivers, and Rodgers put up and I am not even mentioning Manning.

[olafberserker]

If Brady starts week 1, what running backs would you take above him? I would rather have a HOF caliber QB throwing to Moss and Welker all day, over an injury prone running back.

Brady wasn't ranked in my top 15 picks this year and he won't next year even if he's 100% healthy.  It's a long way off so I haven't though about it too much, but I just don't believe in taking QBs earlier than that.  It's worked pretty well for me.   The money league I won this year I did it with Tyler Thigpen at QB (after I wasted a 3rd pick on Carson Palmer I might add)

[PewterReportWH]

If Brady starts week 1, what running backs would you take above him? I would rather have a HOF caliber QB throwing to Moss and Welker all day, over an injury prone running back.

Brady wasn't ranked in my top 15 picks this year and he won't next year even if he's 100% healthy.  It's a long way off so I haven't though about it too much, but I just don't believe in taking QBs earlier than that.  It's worked pretty well for me.   The money league I won this year I did it with Tyler Thigpen at QB (after I wasted a 3rd pick on Carson Palmer I might add)

I completely agree, I like to roll the dice on a quarterback in the middle rounds after I get my core of RBs and WRs. Look at what you could get this year in the middle rounds or even Waiver Wire: Rodgers, Cutler, Orton, Ryan, Thigpen, and McNabb just to name a few.

[kmitchell]

I drafted Warner in the 7th round (and Fitz in the 3rd), and he helped me get to a 11-2 start before a loss in the playoffs.
However, I want to use my 1st round pick on someone who will consistently put up 15-20 points a game, and running backs like Westbrook, Barber, LT, Portis, Jackson, Johnson, Jacobs, etc can not be counted on for that when they are on the sidelines nursing an injury.

There are stud running backs that always fall late in the drafts, and even on the FA wire. Predicting the top 5 Qb's is much easier than predicting the top 5 RB's.

[olafberserker]

How many 15-20 point games did Brady have this year?

[PewterReportWH]

Well, it is impossible to be that consistant. Even Brady in is record breaking season was inconsistent when his owners needed him the most.

Week 15 - 14-27 for 140 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT - That is 3 points in standard scoring leagues

Week 16 - 18-33 for 215 yards 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 Fumble Lost - That is 14 points in standard scoring leagues

I know Brady cost a ton of owners a playoff game or a championship with those numbers, despite is great season.

[kmitchell]

How many 15-20 point games did Brady have this year?

Zero, but the odds of getting hurt again are many times lower than one of the aging running backs.