PEWTER REPORT - 2009 FIRST ROUND MOCK

[olafberserker]

How many 15-20 point games did Brady have this year?

Zero

that's all you had to say ... there are no guarantees ... and when he got hurt you could have snagged Cassell off the waiver wire and got decent numbers as the year wore on ....

[kmitchell]

Who do you have at #2? Everyone has a chance of getting hurt, fantasy football is all about probability, and QB's and WR's are much less likely to go down than the 1st round RB's.

[olafberserker]

Here's the deal.   There are 32 starting QBs and there are 32 starting RBs (with a few decent back ups, etc.).   Standard league is going to start 1 QB and 2 RBs.  So in a 12 team league there are going to be 12 QBs starting every week and 24 RBs.   Most teams are going to draft a back up QB, so now we're up to 24, and everyone is going to draft at least 1 back up RB most teams draft 2.  So when you walk out of the draft there will still be 8 (more less) starting QBs available while some teams will have back up RBs as their 3rd RB.  Long story short I'm taking RBs in 3 of the first 5 rounds and I'm grabbing a top 10 RB with my 1st round pick almost every time (rare possible exceptions if I'm drafting in the final 2 or 3 picks)

It's easier to find a good QB off the waiver wire than it is a RB more often than not..

[olafberserker]

Also go back and look at the preseason top 5 QBs and what the final standings were.  Brady and Palmer doen early with injuries.  Romo missed time with injuries.  Manning started slowly in part to injury.  Only Brees lived up to expectations.  Anderson who was ranked around 6th was a bust.  You're overstating the predictability of the QB position over the RB position.

[PewterReportWH]

I am glad that we are getting some discussion in the thread at least, even though we all might not agree.

As for picking at number 2, if you are hell bent on taking a QB (something I still don't agree with) then this is not the year to take Brady. Not with the injury. Brees is the way to go because they are pass happy and their running game is their short passing game with plays for Bush and Thomas in the flat.

[PewterReportWH]

Also, here is the problem with picking a QB somewhere in the first. Lets say you take Brees (or Brady) at 2. You will not get to pick again to #23 in a 12-man league. By that time, all of the top tier RBs are gone, and so are your first 3 or 4 top WRs. So, now you are settling for lesser talent at RB or WR when you could have taken a top tier RB and possibly Manning in the second round.

I will take Turner and Manning in rounds 1-2 rather than Brees (or Brady) and a guy like Thomas Jones or Pierre Thomas any day of the week.

[olafberserker]

That was another point that I didn't elaborate on.  Someone actually took Brady #2 in one of my money leagues.  His 2nd Round pick was Jamal Lewis.  He then took Colston in Round 3 and Gates in Round 4 ....  he finished 4-9.

[PewterReportWH]

That was another point that I didn't elaborate on.  Someone actually took Brady #2 in one of my money leagues.  His 2nd Round pick was Jamal Lewis.  He then took Colston in Round 3 and Gates in Round 4 ....  he finished 4-9.

While one could not have seen injuries coming, that is a perfect example of while you don't take a QB at #2.

That person could have taken taken Peterson (I am assuming L.T. went first) and he his season would not have been so bad.

3 things ... I almost never take a QB in the first round.  Secondly ... there's speculation he won't be ready to start the season ... thirdly, he's not even close to the most talented QB to play the game, but that's another issue all together.

Brady not even close? Now THAT is funny.

[olafberserker]

3 things ... I almost never take a QB in the first round. Secondly ... there's speculation he won't be ready to start the season ... thirdly, he's not even close to the most talented QB to play the game, but that's another issue all together.

Brady not even close? Now THAT is funny.

EVER?  I don't think it's that funny.

[BuccinTex]

Brees won me my league this past year.   I'll be all over drafting him again if I can.   He wasn't my first round pick though.