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TRJ997

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: April 02, 2009, 01:31:31 PM

Lets see if the flaming I took for my personal ranking continues with this mock. I drafted from the 6 spot under the name Air Stich.

10 Teams
Assumed 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE/K/D – No PPR
http://www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com/draft/448545

My Draft:
1. RB Chris Johnson
2. WR Calvin Johnson
3. WR Marques Colston
4. WR Dwayne Bowe
5. RB Willie Parker
6. QB Tony Romo
7. RB Ernest Graham
8. RB Derrick Ward
9. RB Ahmad Bradshaw
10. RB Darren Sproles
11. RB Rashard Mendenhall
12. TE John Carlson
13. WR Sidney Rice
14. QB Joe Flacco
15. RB Dominic Rhodes

My Team:
QB: Romo, Flacco
RB: LBJ, Parker, Graham, D. Ward, A. Bradshaw, Sproles, Mendenhall, D. Rhodes
WR: Calvin, Colston, D. Bowe, S. Rice
TE: J. Carlson

It’s never too early to start mocking . . .

I went into this draft targeting Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st, under the assumption that the five players I’d be willing to take before him would be off the board. My strategy changed when Steven Jackson was picked 5th as I have absolutely no problem using my first rounder on Chris Johnson. His immense talent, youth, and good situation all make him a very safe option and I would consider taking him as high as 3rd overall. After getting a RB in the first, my plan was to keep taking WRs until my top 2 tiers were gone. I took Calvin and Colston in the 2nd/3rd over players like Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Steve Smith, and Roddy White, but I would have been happy with any two of those players. My first tough decision came in the 4th round when I took D. Bowe over Joseph Addai. Come draft day, I suspect that Addai will be gone by the mid 4th round, but I’m very concerned about his ability to stay healthy and be productive in weeks 15-16 when I need him the most. Plus, I am driving the D. Bowe bandwagon. With the addition of Cassel and the 3rd year WR mystique, Bowe is exactly the type of player I want on my team this season. He reminds me of Braylon Edwards in 2007 and Greg Jennings in 2008.

After starting the draft RB/WR/WR/WR, I was open to take a RB, QB, or TE in the 5th round. I think I’ll be waiting on TE this year because there are so many decent options available after the 8th round. QB is an interesting option with guys like Aaron Rogers and Phillip Rivers available, but I decided to go with Parker. Similar to LenDale White/Chris Johnson last year, Willie Parker’s value to me is higher because I like his handcuff so much. If available, I’ll take Rashard Mendenhall in the 12th round of every draft from here on out; regardless of whether I have Parker or not. He’s a first round talent in a solid situation with only Willie Parker in front of him (who’s YPC has declined in each of the last 4 years: 4.7, 4.4, 4.1, 3.8). Ok . . . So now I’ve all but talked myself out of drafting Fast Willie again (especially if they get Baltimore in week 15 or 16).

I made a big mistake not handcuffing Chris Johnson with LenDale White. I thought he would get to me in the 6th, since the teams drafting 7-10 had so few WRs, but he was snatched a few spots ahead of me. This illustrates one downside to LBJ: his handcuff is too expensive. I’m drafting a starter in the 5th round and I’m just not sold that LenWhale is going to be starter material this year. Everything is fine when he’s punching in TDs, but his 40 yards per game is a major liability when he doesn’t get into the endzone. With LenDale gone, I was forced to scramble a little bit and decided to scoop the free-falling Tony Romo. There was other decent value available like Jonathan Stewart and Felix Jones, but Romo was last of the stud QBs and his fantasy points per game in 2008 weren’t far off of 2007, which lead to him being a 2nd round pick in most drafts last year. There are concerns (aging o-line, losing TO), but there are plenty of positives, too (surrounded with talent, getting rid of TO).

I think I spotted a very nice draft duo in rounds 7-8 getting both Ernest Graham and Derrick Ward. I’m not going to go overboard with my Tampa Bay homerism, but I am very optimistic about the run game this season. Last year, both Graham and Warrick Dunn were on pace for 1,000 yards before getting injured and I am certain that new offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski and his Zone Blocking Scheme are going to run the ball at least as much as Gruden. Finally, you could be looking at a true stud in the playoffs should either Ward or Graham (both 29 years old) go down.

In rounds 9, 10, 11, and 15 I loaded up on backup RB’s who play behind injury prone starters. I was looking for home run type picks in this group and I’m confident that Brandon Jacobs, LT, Willie Parker, or Joseph Addai will miss a few games throughout the season. Sproles would be a borderline 1st round pick if LT had been let go, so I was very happy to land him in the 10th.

I used my other late round picks to get my TE, backup QB, and backup WR. John Carlson and Dustin Keller are the best of the late round TEs, but there were some pretty good options like Kellen Winslow, Owen Daniels, and Chris Cooley who went in round 8 or later. I took Flacco in the 14th, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in him, even for a bye week fill in. Had I passed on Romo, I would have burned two picks in rounds 8-10 on guys like Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, or Matt Cassel. This looks like a decent year to wait on a QB, but it is more important than ever to find one who plays at a high level. Drafting both Schaub and Palmer would be a high risk, high reward way to start a fantasy season.

I never draft kickers and I’m not going to start is some mock draft. I am 99% certain that I will take a defense in the last round of my real draft (round 17), and I don’t really know who to target. I'll probably end up picking the best available from my rankings and dropping them after week 2 for someone better. I’m interested in any suggested sleeper Defenses, though.

Here are some other general observations from this draft:

-I would love to pick from the 1 spot. Adrian Peterson, Randy Moss, Steve Smith would be a solid start to any fantasy team.
-I like a lot of players in the 5th/6th rounds. I may look to trade down in the 1st and get an extra pick there.
-Good Values: Frank Gore, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Roddy White (all of these receivers would be fine 2nd round picks), Antonio Bryant, C. Palmer, B Roeth, Rashard Mendenhall
-Reaches: Portis, Peyton Manning, LT, B. Jacobs, Dallas Clark
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PewterReportWH

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#1 : April 02, 2009, 03:20:46 PM

Not a bad mock draft TRJ997.

1. While I like Chris Johnson has a first round pick this year, I prefer to get someone we will get a bigger workload in Rd 1. Nothing wrong with Johnson except for he splits carries and loses goalline carries to White. Not a bad pick.

2. I love Calvin in the second, but Colston and Bowe in the 3rd and 4th are about a round too early for each. Try to target them in the 4th and 5th if you can.

3. Aside from those, you have no depth at WR. Sure you can trade a RB or two, but I like to know that I have depth in case anything happens (ex: Like Colston getting hurt last year.)

4. You got a steal with Ward in RD 8, great pick.

5. Good job handcuffing Parker with Mendenhall. I am not big on Parker this year but he is good value in the 5th RD.

6. Nice pick in Rice in the late rounds. I think he will have a pretty good year.

Hope this helps.

WH

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#2 : April 02, 2009, 03:36:43 PM

I'm not sure if Carlson will have the year he had last year, with the SEA WR's coming healthy, and Housh may become Hasselbecks new safety blanket. Calvin should be a beast, and if the Lions trade for Cutler, I think he will be the best WR of the year. Romo in the 6th was pretty good for you.


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#3 : April 02, 2009, 08:58:01 PM

it's April

TRJ997

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#4 : April 03, 2009, 09:04:43 AM

Not a bad mock draft TRJ997.

1. While I like Chris Johnson has a first round pick this year, I prefer to get someone we will get a bigger workload in Rd 1. Nothing wrong with Johnson except for he splits carries and loses goalline carries to White. Not a bad pick.

2. I love Calvin in the second, but Colston and Bowe in the 3rd and 4th are about a round too early for each. Try to target them in the 4th and 5th if you can.

3. Aside from those, you have no depth at WR. Sure you can trade a RB or two, but I like to know that I have depth in case anything happens (ex: Like Colston getting hurt last year.)

4. You got a steal with Ward in RD 8, great pick.

5. Good job handcuffing Parker with Mendenhall. I am not big on Parker this year but he is good value in the 5th RD.

6. Nice pick in Rice in the late rounds. I think he will have a pretty good year.

Hope this helps.

WH

1. Here is a list of the RB's who went shortly after Chris Johnson: Westy, Deangelo, Portis, LT, Barber, Slaton. Three of those guys are old and injury prone (Westy, Portis, LT); two are going to split carries (Deangelo, Barber), and Slaton isn't worthy of the 7th pick. I agree that LBJ would be more valuable if LenDale wasn't hawking as many TD's, but he doesn't need any more touches than he got last year to be a viable 1st rounder. He was 12th in the league with 251 carries and added 43 receptions. His 10 total TD's was the same as Peterson and I think he will be busier this year than last. In the 1st round I am looking for talent, youth, and a good situation. Chris Johnson the above RB's beat in all of those areas.

2. I'm afraid it's a pipe dream to assume that Colston will be available in the mid 4th round. Even in a 10 teamer. I probably should have taken Steve Smith or Roddy White, but I'm very satisfied with him as a 3rd rounder. His stats over the last 8 games of the season were 42 catches, 678 yards, 5 TDs. That projects to an almost Fitzgerald-like 84 catches, 1,356 yards, and 10 TDs. His hype might not be high now, but it will be in a couple of months.

D. Bowe is a guy I just happen to like a lot. I know I grabbed him early, but I really don't have faith that he would make it to me in the 5th. I could have taken Addai, Bush, or Phillip Rivers, but there weren't any other WRs available that I would have taken over him. I agree that he was a little bit of a reach, but I don't think it's bad to reach on a guy if you really want him.

3. One advantage to going WR heavy early is that I don't need much WR depth. I was busy snapping up RBs while the bench WRs were coming off the board. I will start my 3 WR's every week, regardless of matchup and I will use Sidney Rice for byes/injuries. I want to keep as many roster spots available as possible for the unkown RBs that fall from the trees every year. I may grab another WR, but I won't ever have more than 5 on the roster.

4. Ward is already moving up the boards and has passed Graham at that site. We'll see how things shake out, but I would still try to get both of these guys in the 6th-7th (maybe 5th-6th). The key is getting them both.

5. I'm not a Parker fan at all. He's not overly talented and the Steelers aren't as much of a running team as they used to be. The 5th round of a 12 teamer is good value for Parker, but since I had LBJ, I would probably pass on him for LenDale given the opportunity to do it over again.

6. I was targeting either Rice or Meachem. Rice got to me and I was happy to take him in the 13th.

TRJ997

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#5 : April 03, 2009, 09:06:21 AM

it's April
I was hoping for a little more insight. You had comments about WH's mock draft back in March.

JC510

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#6 : April 03, 2009, 12:16:36 PM

You have too many RBs splitting time.

TRJ997

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#7 : April 04, 2009, 08:57:29 PM

You have too many RBs splitting time.
Welcome to 2009.

JC510

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#8 : April 06, 2009, 12:12:55 PM

You have too many RBs splitting time.
Welcome to 2009.

There are still backs who get the yards and the goal line work but you created reasons to pass on them.


kmitchell

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#9 : April 06, 2009, 12:40:29 PM

If you draft Chris Johnson, you need LenDale White. It hurts to watch Chris Johnson take it to inside the 5, then White pounds it in for 6 points.


TRJ997

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#10 : April 06, 2009, 06:34:40 PM

You have too many RBs splitting time.
Welcome to 2009.

There are still backs who get the yards and the goal line work but you created reasons to pass on them.


I'm not going to argue the merits of Chris Johnson in the 1st too much as he was a top 10 back in my league despite being in a committee last year. LenDale probably won't score 15 TDs again, and Chris Johnson has the talent to continue his explosion into the league. I'm also not going to draft 2 RB's in the 1st 2 rounds, which doesn't leave me with very many non committee options.

Which players should I have taken instead of Colston or Bowe? The only non-committee guy I'd consider is Kevin Smith in the 4th (over Bowe). Look at the mock. Every single RB taken after Kevin Smith is in a committee except Cedric Benson (who looks like a great value pick). All of the sure fire guys who don't give up some goal line carries are gone by the mid second and the best are gone by pick 5. The rest of the bunch looks mostly the same. I will be loading up as heavily as possible on the stud WRs, who are less likely to get injured and more likely to live up to their lofty draft status.

Every single year there are multiple RB's who pop up in the 2nd half of the season and provide good starters for a few games. By getting 3 stud WRs, I don't have to use many roster spots (1 or 2 max) on backup WRs who will never start. This gives me more flexibility to snatch up as many RBs as possible. Assuming I only have to start 2 RBs, I guarantee I will be able to find the equivalent of a very strong RB2 from this bunch:

Willie Parker, Derrick Ward, Ernest Graham, Darren Sproles, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall, Dominik Rhodes, and the numerous waiver wire guys I will pick up along the way.

TRJ997

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#11 : April 06, 2009, 06:41:23 PM

If you draft Chris Johnson, you need LenDale White. It hurts to watch Chris Johnson take it to inside the 5, then White pounds it in for 6 points.

I think this year LenDale will be valuable to Chris Johnson owners as a handcuff should Johnson go down, but I don't think he will be starter material. I think his TDs will drop from 15 down to the 7-10 range and his total yards will be under 800 again. Divided by 16 games, he is a borderline bye week starter in a 10 team league. Hardly worth a 5th round pick.

Owning LenDale is a must if you are going to try to trade Chris Johnson. Which is another reason why I agree (and stated above) that it was a big mistake not getting him. Maybe I could try to trade for him in week 4 after his value plummets because he's getting less than 10 carries a game. That's a risky, but potentially shark move.

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#12 : April 06, 2009, 07:25:27 PM

You have too many RBs splitting time.
Welcome to 2009.

There are still backs who get the yards and the goal line work but you created reasons to pass on them.


I'm not going to argue the merits of Chris Johnson in the 1st too much as he was a top 10 back in my league despite being in a committee last year. LenDale probably won't score 15 TDs again, and Chris Johnson has the talent to continue his explosion into the league. I'm also not going to draft 2 RB's in the 1st 2 rounds, which doesn't leave me with very many non committee options.

Which players should I have taken instead of Colston or Bowe? The only non-committee guy I'd consider is Kevin Smith in the 4th (over Bowe). Look at the mock. Every single RB taken after Kevin Smith is in a committee except Cedric Benson (who looks like a great value pick). All of the sure fire guys who don't give up some goal line carries are gone by the mid second and the best are gone by pick 5. The rest of the bunch looks mostly the same. I will be loading up as heavily as possible on the stud WRs, who are less likely to get injured and more likely to live up to their lofty draft status.

Every single year there are multiple RB's who pop up in the 2nd half of the season and provide good starters for a few games. By getting 3 stud WRs, I don't have to use many roster spots (1 or 2 max) on backup WRs who will never start. This gives me more flexibility to snatch up as many RBs as possible. Assuming I only have to start 2 RBs, I guarantee I will be able to find the equivalent of a very strong RB2 from this bunch:

Willie Parker, Derrick Ward, Ernest Graham, Darren Sproles, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall, Dominik Rhodes, and the numerous waiver wire guys I will pick up along the way.


I think you're creating your own problems.  Few examples...

1. You say Slaton isn't worth the #7 pick?
He had 1659 yards, 10 TDs. Johnson had 1448 yards, 10 TDs. I like Johnson, but White is going to get the ball inside the 10. That really limits Johnson's potential. Unless White gets hurt Johnson might struggle to reach that fantasy value again. He probably maxed out last year. Slaton on the other hand could easily increase his TD output, significantly.

2. You eliminate D. Williams because he's in a timeshare but so is Johnson.

3. Why can't you take 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds? You can get good WRs in the 3rd and 4th while making sure you get 2 stud RBs early. Picking at 7 I think yiu HAVE TO go RB, RB.

4. Portis is neither old nor injury prone.

5. Westbrook has only missed 4 games the last 3 years.

You need RBs who get yards and TDs. Instead you have a bunch of guys who get yards OR touchdowns.
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#13 : April 06, 2009, 07:40:53 PM

You have too many RBs splitting time.
Welcome to 2009.

There are still backs who get the yards and the goal line work but you created reasons to pass on them.


I'm not going to argue the merits of Chris Johnson in the 1st too much as he was a top 10 back in my league despite being in a committee last year. LenDale probably won't score 15 TDs again, and Chris Johnson has the talent to continue his explosion into the league. I'm also not going to draft 2 RB's in the 1st 2 rounds, which doesn't leave me with very many non committee options.

Which players should I have taken instead of Colston or Bowe? The only non-committee guy I'd consider is Kevin Smith in the 4th (over Bowe). Look at the mock. Every single RB taken after Kevin Smith is in a committee except Cedric Benson (who looks like a great value pick). All of the sure fire guys who don't give up some goal line carries are gone by the mid second and the best are gone by pick 5. The rest of the bunch looks mostly the same. I will be loading up as heavily as possible on the stud WRs, who are less likely to get injured and more likely to live up to their lofty draft status.

Every single year there are multiple RB's who pop up in the 2nd half of the season and provide good starters for a few games. By getting 3 stud WRs, I don't have to use many roster spots (1 or 2 max) on backup WRs who will never start. This gives me more flexibility to snatch up as many RBs as possible. Assuming I only have to start 2 RBs, I guarantee I will be able to find the equivalent of a very strong RB2 from this bunch:

Willie Parker, Derrick Ward, Ernest Graham, Darren Sproles, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall, Dominik Rhodes, and the numerous waiver wire guys I will pick up along the way.


I think you're creating your own problems.� Few examples...

1. You say Slaton isn't worth the #7 pick?
He had 1659 yards, 10 TDs. Johnson had 1448 yards, 10 TDs. I like Johnson, but White is going to get the ball inside the 10. That really limits Johnson's potential. Unless White gets hurt Johnson might struggle to reach that fantasy value again. He probably maxed out last year. Slaton on the other hand could easily increase his TD output, significantly.

2. You eliminate D. Williams because he's in a timeshare but so is Johnson.

3. Why can't you take 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds? You can get good WRs in the 3rd and 4th while making sure you get 2 stud RBs early. Picking at 7 I think yiu HAVE TO go RB, RB.

4. Portis is neither old nor injury prone.

5. Westbrook has only missed 4 games the last 3 years.

You need RBs who get yards and TDs. Instead you have a bunch of guys who get yards OR touchdowns.

I agree with all of that except number 4. While Portis is not old, he does have the career touches of a guy in his 30s. He is starting to break down and I think this is the year where you will start to see it.

Also, Westbrook may not have missed many games recently, but the two seasons before that he missed another six. And he has never played a full season. Add in the fact that he is 30 and is always batting injuries, he is someone I am definitely staying away from in the first round this year.

WH

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#14 : April 06, 2009, 07:53:41 PM

You have too many RBs splitting time.
Welcome to 2009.

There are still backs who get the yards and the goal line work but you created reasons to pass on them.


I'm not going to argue the merits of Chris Johnson in the 1st too much as he was a top 10 back in my league despite being in a committee last year. LenDale probably won't score 15 TDs again, and Chris Johnson has the talent to continue his explosion into the league. I'm also not going to draft 2 RB's in the 1st 2 rounds, which doesn't leave me with very many non committee options.

Which players should I have taken instead of Colston or Bowe? The only non-committee guy I'd consider is Kevin Smith in the 4th (over Bowe). Look at the mock. Every single RB taken after Kevin Smith is in a committee except Cedric Benson (who looks like a great value pick). All of the sure fire guys who don't give up some goal line carries are gone by the mid second and the best are gone by pick 5. The rest of the bunch looks mostly the same. I will be loading up as heavily as possible on the stud WRs, who are less likely to get injured and more likely to live up to their lofty draft status.

Every single year there are multiple RB's who pop up in the 2nd half of the season and provide good starters for a few games. By getting 3 stud WRs, I don't have to use many roster spots (1 or 2 max) on backup WRs who will never start. This gives me more flexibility to snatch up as many RBs as possible. Assuming I only have to start 2 RBs, I guarantee I will be able to find the equivalent of a very strong RB2 from this bunch:

Willie Parker, Derrick Ward, Ernest Graham, Darren Sproles, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall, Dominik Rhodes, and the numerous waiver wire guys I will pick up along the way.


I think you're creating your own problems.� Few examples...

1. You say Slaton isn't worth the #7 pick?
He had 1659 yards, 10 TDs. Johnson had 1448 yards, 10 TDs. I like Johnson, but White is going to get the ball inside the 10. That really limits Johnson's potential. Unless White gets hurt Johnson might struggle to reach that fantasy value again. He probably maxed out last year. Slaton on the other hand could easily increase his TD output, significantly.

2. You eliminate D. Williams because he's in a timeshare but so is Johnson.

3. Why can't you take 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds? You can get good WRs in the 3rd and 4th while making sure you get 2 stud RBs early. Picking at 7 I think yiu HAVE TO go RB, RB.

4. Portis is neither old nor injury prone.

5. Westbrook has only missed 4 games the last 4 years and I think some of those were because the game didn't mean anything.

You need RBs who get yards and TDs. Instead you have a bunch of guys who get yards OR touchdowns.

1. I like Slaton, but I have him rated below Johnson. Also, look for the Texans to draft another RB to take some of the load off of Slaton. I suspect that Johnson will distance himself even further from Slaton as the draft approaches. At this stage, the fantasy experts that I pay for all agree that Johnson is the better pick.

2. The Panther's drafted J Stew with the 13 pick last year and he looked very good, averaging 4.5 per carry. His upside may be unknown, but I'm 100 % sure that his role will be expanded this year. Lendale, on the other hand, has proven to be very limited talent wise, and may not break the 4.0 ypc mark in any season where he gets more than 100 carries. Anyone that watched a single Titan's game knows that White is completely outclassed by LBJ.

Not that this matters anyway. You said that I had too many committee backs and Deangelo is a committee back.

3. Welcome to 2009. The RB/RB strategy is dead. Based on the stat projections that I pay for, the VBD method will dictate that I take a WR in the 2nd round; guaranteed.

4. You are right about Portis not being that old, but he has a lot of milage and he battles injuries every season. He has done a good job of playing through the pain the last 2 years, but I would not take him over Chris Johnson and he didn't make it to me in the 2nd. There was nothing I could do.

5. I'm not in a PPR league. I'll let someone else worry about Westbrook.

So far, I don't see any way that I could have followed your advice without passing on players who I (my experts) think are better. And ultimately, my team wouldn't look any different if I had DeAngelo or Portis over Johnson.

And the reason I have a bunch of guys who get TDs or yards is because there are very, very few guys who get both. I thought this became pretty clear last year, and I think it will get even more clear this year.
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