http://thebullspen.com/index.php?topic=25906.0Yet Another OCS Thread... Okay... To catch up a lot of the newbies...
1. Location
The long range plan for USF has a 'placeholder' for a stadium covering the eastern most parking lots of the Sun Dome. The two western lots (the ones along Maple directly across from the college of business) will be replaced with parking garages. Most campuses with stadiums have parking all across the campus -- so you can expect that when USF builds its OCS, there will be people parking at the College of Medicine and walking across campus.
University Mall is not really an option because Glimcher, the current owner of the mall, is selling the Mall as part of a two-mall package. Despite the clientele and location issues, University Mall remains highly profitable for both Glimcher and the individual stores therein. Bear in mind that Sears, Dillards, Macy's, and Burlington Coat Factory all own their locations as well as some parking areas, which could affect any sale of the Mall.
The area north of Fletcher - between the Claw (golf course) and Riverfront Park is owned by USF; however, it is all wetlands. Current environmental regulations would make building the stadium in that location significantly cost prohibitive. It would probably be cheaper to buy the mall.
2. Alcohol
The Beer/No Beer issue has been handled. Unless the NCAA or the Big East passes a regulation prohibiting the sale of alcohol during games, you can expect USF to sell beer.
3. Design
There are certain things you can expect from a new stadium. The first will be chairbacks, with or without armrests. Yes, metal benches are a heck of a lot cheaper - but fan comfort is a major part of getting and retaining not only season ticket holders, but also the donors needed to help build and operate the facility.
You can also expect that a USF OCS will be bigger than UCF's 40K seat stadium. Yes, building in phases would be possible -- but I would expect the initial stadium design to hold around 50,000 people.
Finally, the stadium design will probably include a lot of the creature comforts of Raymond James stadium - club levels, suite levels, a large number of bathrooms and concession stands, etc. To attract and retain ticket buyers, going to the stadium has to be more than just the game on the field.
4. Finances
A decent stadium will cost around $150 million. Unlike RayJay, USF can not expect any taxpayer dollars to help. So the funds need to come from either private donations or the sale of bonds or a combination of the two.
With some simplified math, at a 6% interest rate, the bonds would cost around $900,000 per month or just under $11 million per year. (In contrast, rent at Raymond James is $720,000 only per year).
If we assume that ticket sales and annual donations fund the operation of the program (coaches salaries, travel costs, etc), then the debt service needs to come from new sources. Naming rights can bring in $2 to $3 million per year. Additional advertising sales, luxury box rent, parking fees, and concessions can bring in several million more per year.
It would appear that, without dedicating a portion of ticket sales or annual donations to debt service, affording an OCS becomes difficult. For every $10 million in private donations - or cost reductions through design changes - the funds needed each year is reduced by around $700,000. USF might need to raise at least half of the construction money before the first shovel of dirt is moved.
5. Timing
I would not expect USF to even consider building a stadium until the lower bowl is sold out for an entire year - that would mean a season of averaging more than 41,000 tickets sold. I would also add that at least 25,000 or more of those will probably need to be season tickets - and those season tickets might need to be held by more than 10,000 season ticket holders. (Currently USF has less than 4,000 season ticket holders buying around 16,000 season tickets and averages around 30,000 tickets sold).
When will these benchmarks be achieved? My guess is around 2010. At that point, USF will appoint a stadium committee to first conduct an up-to-date feasibility study. Then the committee will spearhead a capital campaign to raise private donations. Once the committee reaches its goal, USF will seek permission to sell bonds for the construction. That should be sometime in 2012 or 2013. The stadium would then be open for the 2014 or 2015 season.
