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SamoaJoeBucFan

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#15 : February 10, 2007, 12:51:35 PM

I remember the big thing when Minnesota missed their pick was that they missed out on Byron Leftwich and the Jags picked him.  If I remember correctly, most thought Leftwich was going to be their pick.

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#16 : February 10, 2007, 01:14:22 PM

I remember the big thing when Minnesota missed their pick was that they missed out on Byron Leftwich and the Jags picked him. If I remember correctly, most thought Leftwich was going to be their pick.

But they ended up with Kevin Williams, so I think they actually got the better end of that deal.


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#17 : February 10, 2007, 02:02:22 PM

it would be foolish to let a pick go for nothing, you could always find a team that would trade up for something. Out of 28 other teams, at least one of them would give you a second day pick to move up. Even the team right behind you would gladly give you a 7th to keep the Move-up from another team

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#18 : February 10, 2007, 02:12:49 PM

Wow, let the clock run out so we can draft lower - if there is a player there at 4 and we want him at 5, 6, or 7 just pick him - what the hell is the difference.  So many people put this well he is not a top 5 pick, he is top 10 - what is the difference?  We pick the player we need the most regardless of if the so called experts think we took him one or two spots too soon.  Plus we take the chance of losing the player we want and need.

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#19 : February 10, 2007, 02:14:12 PM

I agree, I think we did that with Joseph and Clayton

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#20 : February 10, 2007, 02:18:53 PM

I remember during the regular season, everyone was hoping the bucs keep losing so that we get a high draft pick. We get possibly the #3 pick and now no one wants it.

Amazing...

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#21 : February 10, 2007, 02:24:34 PM

not everyone.....I can't think of any Bucfan that wanted to lose. High draft picks are a greater gamble though, alot more cash for a possibility

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#22 : February 11, 2007, 04:36:16 AM

I remember during the regular season, everyone was hoping the bucs keep losing so that we get a high draft pick. We get possibly the #3 pick and now no one wants it.

Amazing...

I don't mind having the #3 pick -- I just hope they don't fall into the trap of taking the Best Player Available at #3 when there is a "Most Needed Player" available that isn't projected to go until pick 5-7.


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#23 : February 11, 2007, 06:07:01 AM

I wouldnt be for letting the time expire, at that point just pick a player that even seems like a reach, or draft adrian peterson and hold him hostage for another team to trade for him


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#24 : February 11, 2007, 10:04:04 AM

Yes Minnesota has done it before.

Didn't they do this two years in a row? Or was it that they came close to it two years in a row?


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#25 : February 11, 2007, 10:16:01 AM

I remember during the regular season, everyone was hoping the bucs keep losing so that we get a high draft pick. We get possibly the #3 pick and now no one wants it.

Amazing...

That's because people are fixated on Okoye and are trying to figure out some way (and getting increasingly wacky based on this) to get him. There will be plenty of good players at 3/4 for us. We have need at any of these player's positions: Russell, Quinn, Adams, Thomas, Calvin so why not do the smart thing and pick one of them and get the highest rated guy to fill a need? Seems like a simple thing at this point.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.



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#26 : February 11, 2007, 10:44:50 AM

Wow, let the clock run out so we can draft lower - if there is a player there at 4 and we want him at 5, 6, or 7 just pick him - what the hell is the difference.  So many people put this well he is not a top 5 pick, he is top 10 - what is the difference?  We pick the player we need the most regardless of if the so called experts think we took him one or two spots too soon.  Plus we take the chance of losing the player we want and need.
I agree, I think we did that with Joseph and Clayton

I would not let the clock run out either.

Reaching for a player later in the 1st round (Joseph) is not as critical (value wise) than getting value with picks 3 or 4. There is a big drop-off value wise after the 4th pick.

For example:

If you had the 3rd pick worth 2200 points and reached for a guy who was rated 10th best in the draft, the 10th pick in the 1st round is worth 1300 points, a difference of 900 points - pretty significant. That equates to the 18th pick in the draft (mid 1st).

In Davin's case, he was the # 23 pick LY worth 760 points. Most agree that if the Bucs didn't take him there, he would've gone anywhere from the late 1st to mid second. Even if, for the sake of argument, he went mid second at say #48, that's worth 420 points, a difference of only 340 points. That equates to the #56 pick (2nd rnd).
If he gets picked at #32, worth 590 points, that's only a difference of 170 points and that's worth the 84th pick (3rd rnd.)

So, you're looking at a difference of 900 points vs about 170-340 point range. Drafting like that will catch up with your team rather quick.


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#27 : February 11, 2007, 07:53:51 PM


For example:

If you had the 3rd pick worth 2200 points and reached for a guy who was rated 10th best in the draft, the 10th pick in the 1st round is worth 1300 points, a difference of 900 points - pretty significant. That equates to the 18th pick in the draft (mid 1st).

In Davin's case, he was the # 23 pick LY worth 760 points. Most agree that if the Bucs didn't take him there, he would've gone anywhere from the late 1st to mid second. Even if, for the sake of argument, he went mid second at say #48, that's worth 420 points, a difference of only 340 points. That equates to the #56 pick (2nd rnd).
If he gets picked at #32, worth 590 points, that's only a difference of 170 points and that's worth the 84th pick (3rd rnd.)

So, you're looking at a difference of 900 points vs about 170-340 point range. Drafting like that will catch up with your team rather quick.

The problem with the "points" system for draft picks that everyone seems so fixated on is that it assumes there is a uniform degree of sepeartion between the players picked.

In reality, that isn't the case -- teams routinely get better performance out of lower-picked players and teams routinely bust on high-picked players.

You draft the player you feel will best fill the needs of your team -- let the idiot talking heads and paid analysts cry about points and value like morons before a single snap is made.

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#28 : February 12, 2007, 11:32:52 AM

BAP has some merrit to it though in that there may not be a unform degree of seperatin between the players picked at some portions of the draft you could gauge some drops offs (Eg top of the first round and then the the late 1st/early 2nd are vastly different).



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#29 : February 12, 2007, 12:09:24 PM

Well let's see CE, if you compare RB's in LYs draft going by stats alone you might have something:

Addai, pick #31
2006   Indianapolis   16   226   1081   67.6   4.8   7       40   325   20.3   8.1   21   7.6   20   1   2   2   

Bush, pick #2
2006   New Orleans   16   155    565       35.3    3.6       6             88    742     46.4     8.4   74   8.2   32   2   2   2   

Bush also returned punts avg 7.7

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