#8 Cincinnati @ #21 USF

from espn insider (shhhhh)

Cincinnati offense vs. South Florida defense

â€¢ QB Tony Pike continues to lead the Bearcats' spread attack by making sound decisions, and Pike is doing a good job of getting the ball out quickly and spreading it around to multiple receivers. That has taken a lot of pressure off the offensive line on passing downs. South Florida's challenge will be taking away as many quick-hitting throws as possible, forcing Pike to hold the ball longer than he would like and giving its disruptive defensive line more time to get to Pike.

â€¢ A review of the past two weeks of film suggests the Bearcats' offensive line has some vulnerability in protection, especially at the tackle position. This unit has surrendered only three sacks all season, but a lot of the credit belongs to Pike, whose quick decision making and underrated pocket mobility has prevented several would-be sacks. However, this problem could be exposed on Saturday because LT Jeff Linkenbach and RT Sam Griffin both struggle with speed off the edge and are going to have their hands full preventing a pair of explosive and athletic defensive ends in George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul from turning the corner.

â€¢ Part of Pike's success this season has been due to a strong group of receiving threats on the outside, led by WR Mardy Gilyard. This unit has done a good job of reading defenses on the fly, finding the open area and executing their hot reads when necessary. In addition, TE Ben Guidugli has developed into a solid receiving threat working the middle of the field. However, this unit is going to have to work extra hard Thursday night to find separation working against a stingy and quick Bulls secondary. CB Jerome Murphy displays excellent quickness and burst, so he will line up across from Gilyard as much as possible. In addition, FS Nate Allen possesses strong instincts and a wide range when roaming the middle of the field. Pike must be sure to keep tabs on him, especially when looking late between the hashes.
Key individual matchup

Cincinnati QB Tony Pike
vs.
South Florida FS Nate Allen

Pike has made excellent decisions throughout the season, throwing 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions. However, he must be extra careful with his decisions down the middle of the field this week and be sure to look off Allen when he is aligned at the point of the defense. Allen does a tremendous job of reading quarterbacks' eyes and getting a quick break on the ball. Pike has also shown excellent poise in the pocket and does a good job of rush avoiding, but he must be sure to keep tabs on Allen when buying more time. Allen is extremely instinctive and disciplined in coverage, and he possesses the ball skills to make Pike pay on any late throws down the middle of the field.
South Florida defense vs. Cincinnati defense

â€¢ QB B.J. Daniels has stepped in nicely to replace Matt Grothe, who was lost for the year after suffering an ACL tear in Week 3. Daniels is more athletic than Grothe and a better runner, which has made the Bulls' rushing attack more dynamic. Offensive coordinator Mike Canales is doing a nice job of mixing up different runs by using dives to RBs Mike Ford and Moise Plancher or zone-read plays from the gun, and even sprinkling in the speed option with Daniels. In addition, the Bulls' offensive line is getting off the ball quickly and covering up defenders. Cincinnati's defense has been stingy defending the run, but will be tested both mentally and physically this week -- especially at the linebacker position. This unit will need to be patient reading their keys and be sure not to get caught out of position.

â€¢ Up front, the Bulls' offensive line has been up to par in protection. They have shown good communication, which has allowed them to play as a cohesive unit. This is a positive sign heading into Thursday night because they will be facing an aggressive Bearcats pass rush. Defensive coordinator Bob Diaco is doing a nice job of masking who the fourth and fifth rushers are from their 3-4 front and OLB Walter Stewart has the speed and quickness to test LT Jeremiah Warren or RT Jacob Sims. However, the Bulls' front line will need to turn in their best showing to date to have success keeping Cincinnati out of the backfield and disrupting Daniels.

â€¢ When the Bearcats do dial up pressures, they must come under control and maintain gap integrity when doing so. If they fail to keep contain -- especially on the outside -- it will play right into Daniels' hands as a dual-threat quarterback. Daniels excels at breaking contain and creating with his feet to either buy more time or pick up yards by tucking and running. In addition, if Daniels is able to get on the perimeter it does not bode well for Cincinnati's secondary, which is going to have a tough time matching up and limiting separation from WR Carlton Mitchell, who possesses a rare combination of size and top-end speed.
Scouts' Edge

Cincinnati will be entering a hostile environment Thursday night at Raymond James Stadium, which will play a big factor in the game's outcome. The Bulls have the personnel on defense to slow the Bearcats' high-powered attack. Their pass rush will keep Pike under pressure and their secondary has enough playmakers to cash in on any passes thrown up for grabs. However, Daniels' athleticism will give the Bulls' offense enough big-play opportunities -- both on the ground and through the air -- to pull off the home upset.

Prediction: Bulls 35, Bearcats 30

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