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nflinsider

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: February 27, 2007, 11:36:36 AM

With the 4th pick, it's reasonable that if we traded down, we could end up with two #1s. That combined with the two picks we already have in the second round would put us in a very nice place. I'm just as excited about Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson as anyone but trading down means would could end up with two impact players in the first round as opposed to one.

leeroybuc93

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#1 : February 27, 2007, 11:38:15 AM

With the 4th pick, it's reasonable that if we traded down, we could end up with two #1s. That combined with the two picks we already have in the second round would put us in a very nice place. I'm just as excited about Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson as anyone but trading down means would could end up with two impact players in the first round as opposed to one.

Only one team has two #1's and they are too low to trade the 4th pick for.  If we go back we're only going back maybe 3 spots for an extra 2nd.

dalbuc

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#2 : February 27, 2007, 11:46:29 AM

With the 4th pick, it's reasonable that if we traded down, we could end up with two #1s. That combined with the two picks we already have in the second round would put us in a very nice place. I'm just as excited about Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson as anyone but trading down means would could end up with two impact players in the first round as opposed to one.

The problem is you assume your odds of getting an "impact" player outside the top 5 are the same as in the top 5. They aren't. the drop off is fairly notable and the hit rate after the top 15 really drops off. I ran numbers of this a few years back but can't find it. You are much better off drafting early (despite all the high profile busts that happen) to get a stud player than later in the draft.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

Rusty

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#3 : February 27, 2007, 12:48:42 PM

I guess the fundemental question is, do we need an impact player or a bunch of good players?

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RedAlert

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#4 : February 27, 2007, 01:52:12 PM

I guess the fundemental question is, do we need an impact player or a bunch of good players?


That's an excellent question. I would imagine it depends on the "impact" any particular player can make.

Since, realistically, there isn't any one position that can make an immediate impact without proper support by the positions around him, perhaps in our case a bunch of good players can collectively make a bigger impact than any one player..




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#5 : February 27, 2007, 02:01:48 PM

And since that is a question how about if both CJ and Thomas are still on the board when the bucs pick.  Let's just say Russell, Quinn and Anderson go 1-3 - then what do you want - one player or perhaps more from a trade.  Tell me I get a shot at either of these guys and my asking price is prohibitive - especilly a LOT. 

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant

dalbuc

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#6 : February 27, 2007, 02:09:20 PM

Impact Player: Peyton Manning Good Players: Dallas Clark and Cato June
Impact Player: LaDanian Tomlinson Good Player: Keenan McCardell and Igor Olshansky

You always want the impact player because those guys are game changers and game winners. Good players are the dudes you fill in around the impact players.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

Boid Fink

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#7 : February 27, 2007, 02:11:53 PM

Impact player -- Simeon Rice.  Or at least he has shown he can disrupt a good 7-8 games a year by himself.  I think having a good pass rush is vital about now.  The defense is horrid, and old.  It is absolutely time to revamp that D-line.  Screw getting another wideout, IMO.


Mellow

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#8 : February 27, 2007, 02:12:04 PM

With the 4th pick, it's reasonable that if we traded down, we could end up with two #1s. That combined with the two picks we already have in the second round would put us in a very nice place. I'm just as excited about Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson as anyone but trading down means would could end up with two impact players in the first round as opposed to one.

'Top-5' is just arbitrary though, and conveniently just encloses the Bucs' pick.  If you can trade down to #8-#12, for example, is there really that much of a drop-off of talent?  If you pick at #9 you are guaranteed to get the top QB, RB, WR, OT, LB, CB, S, DT, or DE in the draft, right?  odds of getting an "impact" player outside the top 5 are the same as in the top 5. They aren't. the drop off is fairly notable and the hit rate after the top 15 really drops off. I ran numbers of this a few years back but can't find it. You are much better off drafting early (despite all the high profile busts that happen) to get a stud player than later in the draft.
With the 4th pick, it's reasonable that if we traded down, we could end up with two #1s. That combined with the two picks we already have in the second round would put us in a very nice place. I'm just as excited about Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson as anyone but trading down means would could end up with two impact players in the first round as opposed to one.

The problem is you assume your odds of getting an "impact" player outside the top 5 are the same as in the top 5. They aren't. the drop off is fairly notable and the hit rate after the top 15 really drops off. I ran numbers of this a few years back but can't find it. You are much better off drafting early (despite all the high profile busts that happen) to get a stud player than later in the draft.

'Top-5' is just arbitrary though, and conveniently just encloses the Bucs' pick.  If you can trade down to #8-#12, for example, is there really that much of a drop-off of talent?  If you pick at #9 you are guaranteed to get the top QB, RB, WR, OT, LB, CB, S, DT, or DE in the draft, right?  I'm not arguing your point, just refining what you mean by "later in the draft".  I don't think anyone is suggesting the Bucs trade out of the top 15 just to grab a few extra picks.  At least I'm not.

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#9 : February 27, 2007, 02:14:25 PM

Johnson and Thomas are the only two I would stay at 4th to get. Otherwise trade back to 7-9 and get an extra 2nd rounder. We can still get a good player there that wouldn't be much worse than a player at 4th. Just make a top 10 list and we would get one of those players.

dalbuc

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#10 : February 27, 2007, 02:19:06 PM

'Top-5' is just arbitrary though, and conveniently just encloses the Bucs' pick.  If you can trade down to #8-#12, for example, is there really that much of a drop-off of talent?  If you pick at #9 you are guaranteed to get the top QB, RB, WR, OT, LB, CB, S, DT, or DE in the draft, right?  I'm not arguing your point, just refining what you mean by "later in the draft".  I don't think anyone is suggesting the Bucs trade out of the top 15 just to grab a few extra picks.  At least I'm not.

The drop between top 5 and 6-10 is bigger because most drafts don't have a ton of talent, top tier blue chip talent. Some drafts the line is 4, some it might be 7 but there is a notable change. The next most obvius break was 25-32 where those players are actually worse than the guys in R2 1-10 for example mostly becuase you get the RJ Soward type players that "rise" into R1 when they really shouldn't be there.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

RedAlert

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#11 : February 27, 2007, 02:37:10 PM

And since that is a question how about if both CJ and Thomas are still on the board when the bucs pick. Let's just say Russell, Quinn and Anderson go 1-3 - then what do you want - one player or perhaps more from a trade. Tell me I get a shot at either of these guys and my asking price is prohibitive - especilly a LOT.

I agree, and I wouldn't even want to trade a LOT like Thomas because not only is there an impact, but he also fills a genuine, almost desperate, need for us. Almost a perfect storm of circumstance and opportunity if he falls to #4..

IMO in this case, and this case only, the impact of multiple good players doesn't outweigh the ability to solidify such a critical position for years to come..



dalbuc

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#12 : February 27, 2007, 02:39:30 PM

Impact player -- Simeon Rice.  Or at least he has shown he can disrupt a good 7-8 games a year by himself.  I think having a good pass rush is vital about now.  The defense is horrid, and old.  It is absolutely time to revamp that D-line.  Screw getting another wideout, IMO.

I agree, our WR wasn't the problem. Our no-rush pass rush and QB were bigger issues but everyone want to get a highlight reel rather than a cornerstone.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

dbucfan

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#13 : February 27, 2007, 03:15:53 PM

Impact player -- Simeon Rice. Or at least he has shown he can disrupt a good 7-8 games a year by himself. I think having a good pass rush is vital about now. The defense is horrid, and old. It is absolutely time to revamp that D-line. Screw getting another wideout, IMO.

I agree, our WR wasn't the problem. Our no-rush pass rush and QB were bigger issues but everyone want to get a highlight reel rather than a cornerstone.
  Agree with both qb and no pass rush.  QB could be filled in FA (noting Garcia appears to be looking) and pass rush would be done with 2a & 2b.  Won't be much to see CJ and then the next two picks be line picks aimed at the pass rush.  Would I rahter have the elite LOT - betchyoua$$.  But that is not a be all or end all.  Can still do very well if FA and the rest of the draft are targeted well and successful in achieving those targeted players.  It is gonna be exciting over the next couple of months. 

\"A Great Coach has to have a Patient Wife, A Loyal Dog, and a Great Quarterback. . . . but not necessarily in that order\" ~ Coach Bud Grant

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#14 : February 27, 2007, 05:56:36 PM

Don't need to trade down when in the draft we could pick up a young stud at DE at 35.


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