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ufojoe

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#15 : September 11, 2012, 09:55:01 PM


This covers the vig/profit angle...

http://casinogambling.about.com/od/racesports/a/sportsprofit.htm

Chief Joseph

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#16 : September 12, 2012, 09:23:21 AM


That angle is exactly what I'm pointing out. You do not break even by winning half the time, you go broke. You need to win on 55% of the funds wagered to pay the vig and stay even. A steady winning percentage of 58 provides you with a 6% profit on the amount wagered. In order to "make a living" you need to wager ten grand a week to make six hundred off of your 58% wins.

Illuminator is a good poster. He sticks to his guns and makes good points. Some don\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'t like that.

ufojoe

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#17 : September 12, 2012, 03:42:27 PM

That angle is exactly what I'm pointing out. You do not break even by winning half the time, you go broke.

Yep. Nobody ever said otherwise.

You need to win on 55% of the funds wagered to pay the vig and stay even.

From what I've read, 52.4% is what is needed to break even, assuming -110 odds or $11.00 to $10.00.

A steady winning percentage of 58 provides you with a 6% profit on the amount wagered.

If 52.4% is the break even point, what's the % profit on 58%?

In order to "make a living" you need to wager ten grand a week to make six hundred off of your 58% wins.

Some of these guys bet more than that. I don't know how much So Money bets per game but I know he has to bet at various
off shore books and have friends make bets for him on their accounts in order to avoid being banned for winning too much.


For those interested, here's more on So Money from an email I sent to my friend a while ago...

* * * * *

So Money Sports answered a lot of questions in the BeyondTheBets.com forum. Here's a link to some of
his more interesting answers...

beyondthebets.com/2011/11/25/ask-so-money-former-offshore-employee-star-handicapper-answers-reader-questions


And here's the link to the forum where people ask him lots of questions and he tries to answer...

http://www.beyondthebets.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?fid=3


And a little on how he got started is pasted below.


Question from Aaron: Did you make a conscious decision to go pro with regard to your sports betting?

RE: [Pro] Money Sports

Hey Aaron, I'll start from the bottom.

The decision to start betting more and for a living was a conscious one. My first bet was a hockey parlay on sportsaction (government-sponsored betting) when I was 12 and I had no idea what I was doing. A $2 ticket paid out $1.64. I bet very small throughout high-school and booked; that is when my fascination with the bettor's mentality took flight. In my first couple of years of University, my betting amount gradually increased as I became better but it still wasn't serious at this point. However, it was during this time that I made the decision that doing this for a living was a goal I would strive for. I knew I had a natural knack for picking winners based on identifying situational tendencies for teams and assessing the gambler's mindset but I was missing 2 very important elements for me: I didn't have an "education in numbers" or real insight into the industry.

A lot of pros I know have been around the industry from a very young age. For example, 2 guys everyone knows, PhillyGodFather and PayneInsider, have been surrounded by real bookies and the game their whole lives. They grew up in the game and lived it from a very young age. I never had that. My first industry experience and real contacts were made when I took jobs in the industry. Back to University, I started taking a lot of advanced stats classes and was looking to apply every concept to sports whenever I could. My bets gradually started getting bigger and I was becoming better but obviously still being a student, I had a long way to go. I was very lucky that in the few years before the DOJ came down on books, there were a few offshores that were based in Canada. In the final year of school, while still building my bankroll slowly, I got my first job in one of the 2 offshores I would work for. This is when everything took off for me. My bets continued to get bigger, I continued to get better, I really learned about betting and made contacts I simply could not have otherwise.

After I finished school, I still worked in the industry and focused on picking up sportsbook tricks while building my network. Altogether, it took me approximately 5 years from the time I became really serious to be comfortable enough and with a large enough bankroll to take that big step. I was now armed with a natural ability, education in numbers, industry experience, amazing network of contacts, and a formal University education in my 2nd biggest career passion (Finance).

When I first started seriously, I broke down how much money I need to cover my living expenses every month. I always re-assess this and obviously there was a major change after I got married. As a general rule, beyond the betting money used solely for generating betting income, I keep 6 months of living expenses aside as a reserve. During a bad month, I will dip into that reserve but make sure to replenish that first before pocketing the next month's payouts. In this way my cable bill never depends on if a kid will make a FT or not. So basically, I have my bankroll spread across various books that is large enough for me to make a living off of and also 6 months worth of living expenses on reserve.

There are a couple of additional things I want to touch on here as well. I am asked all the time when is the best time to make the move and I always feel awkward answering, "whenever you're ready". I have been very fortunate in a lot of areas of my life (one of the big reasons I like to give back for free). I started early when I didn't have a lot of life pressure. Even though I gambled with my student loan money I was able to take countless statistics classes to hone my skills and I got a huge break with sportsbooks being based locally. Further, I have an amazing wife who understands the process, has a great job and is self-sufficient. Everyone's home situation is different and sometimes it is these things outside of the game itself that allow you to really devote the time and energy at improving and getting to that point of sports betting.

Also, kids always talk about what a great life it must be and how they want to start as soon as possible. I always tell them to finish school first. I do some consulting work only because the finance industry is my 2nd greatest career passion and I have the desire to stay current. If, for whatever reason, I cannot bet on sports anymore I have created a safety net for myself and will always have something else in life.

The biggest key to success doing this for a living is allowing yourself to get the point where you're not consumed by every play. I always sense a lot of resentment talking to some guys in my network who live and die in this game while it is strictly a business for me. In general, before anyone makes the move, get your personal life and finances figured out, and have a safety net because to be completely blunt this is not for everyone. When these things are not in order, the bets become desperate and once that happens, you've already lost before the game even starts.

Chief Joseph

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#18 : September 12, 2012, 03:54:19 PM


" If 52.4% is the break even point, what's the % profit on 58%? "

Twice the difference because one drops the same amount the other rises. So 11.2 percent. $1,120 profit per $10,000 wager. A decent living in the right area, but you still need a large pool to guarantee that you stay afloat. But I'm sure you're familiar with that scenario.

Illuminator is a good poster. He sticks to his guns and makes good points. Some don\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'t like that.

ufojoe

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#19 : September 12, 2012, 05:04:36 PM

I bet to make a little exta cash. I live vicariously through So Money and figure people would be interested in the picks of a guy who does it for a living. And on top of that, he's very open to sharing info. and his thought process on why he made a certain pick. Good guy.

ufojoe

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#20 : September 23, 2012, 04:58:49 AM

Best handicappers out there are RAS Sports. They are RA**CENSORED**ks on Twitter.

Subscription is close to $1000 for first 8 weeks of picks. They don't pick for the rest of the season. Obviously, that's too rich for most people, including me. But still thought you would find it interesting.

They are so good that once they put their pick out, within 15 seconds to a minute, most books, including off shore, will adjust
their line in response. Very tough to get their lines but people do. They offer a money back guarantee if you can't get the lines
and thus, find their service useless.

Their track record...

http://www.handicapper.net/college-football-picks.php

Mr. Censor won't let me type their Twitter handle but it's on their website. They give out some free picks from time to time.

RAS went 7-1 today on their CFB picks. They started off slow this year but have really picked it up lately.

59.5% so far. Even if you can't get the same lines as them, you can still win money.

http://www.handicapper.net/college-football-picks.php

Biggs3535

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#21 : November 20, 2012, 10:59:26 AM

The last sports bet I made was $200 on the over for the Bucs @ 5.5 wins.  Fingers crossed....

Cha-ching.

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