http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-real-seven-rounds-of-the-NFL-draft.htmlwww.draftmetrics.comgo to the link for the pics/graphs
More grist for the mill
The NFL has had seven rounds in its draft since 1994. The teams with the worst record in the preceding year draftsfirst and the Super Bowl champion has the last pick in each round. It has been ingrained in our thinking that the value of the draft choices is perfectly logical with the first choice being worth more than the second choice,the second being more valuable than the third, all the way down to the end of the draft.
DRAFTMETRICS, though, has consistently held the belief that the draft can be divided into several groupings of selections within which all the draft selections have an equal chance of success. (These groups have been called Value Groups in past DRAFTMETRICS writings and will be referred to as such in this article.) As discussed below, this means a player selected with the 13th pick has the same chance of success as the player selected first.
In its analysis of drafts from 1993 through 2012, DRAFTMETRICS has concluded that there are indeed seven “rounds” of the draft, just not the same seven as the NFL. The seven Value Groups designated by DRAFTMETERICS are:
1. Selections 1-13
2. Selections 14-40
3. Selections 41-66
4. Selections 67-86
5. Selections 87-149
6. Selections 150-189
7. Selections 190 and later
These Value Groups were determined based on a review of a number of objective factors but is, by necessity, somewhat subjective in establishing the cut-offs. The following table, which considered all drafts from 1993-2012, shows some of the factors considered and summarizes the results by Value Group.
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