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buddah

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: April 29, 2013, 06:49:03 PM

The fans reaction to the draft reminds me a little of Fox News reaction to the Obama landslide.  All the oundits had it being close or a slight victory for Romney.  Only the people that had done their homework could tell you in advance, like Nate Silver,  that the pundits likely had it all wrong.

Here is my take:

Fewer than 10% of players taken in the first round ever achieve Pro Bowl Status.  Revis is a consensus All Pro and likely a Hall of Famer if he doesn't  re-injure himself or he can't reach his former level of play.

This was not an outstanding draft and many so-called experts said that there was a fine-line between players chosen after the first fifteen and perhaps 100.  A lot of subjectivity goes into these selections and most fans only get the "entertainment tonight" version of the qualities of players.  It's an informed crap-shoot.  You can assess the talent of the very best players and the worst, but the middle 90 per cent is awfully difficult.   After the first two rounds, it's a lot of here-say and judgments of effort and competition and injuries and the like.  Some folks get paid to make these judgments and their jobs are on the line.  Nobody on this board fits that category.  We're fans--some more informed than others--but nonetheless fans.  We haven't interviewed the players, talked to their coaches, looked at their resumes and school records and tried to make an assessment of their attitude and love for football.  That doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't  complain when we think the job done doesn't meet our standards, but at least we could admit that, hey, we're fans, we likely over-estimate or under-estimate our ability to make these judgments.

Why did we take a quarterback--and this quarterback in the third round?  Well, the consensus is that Freeman should have some competition and some guys on this board, I'm not one of them, believe he will flame out.  Most young quarterbacks are raw.  John Gruden who knows a thing or two about quarterbacks thinks this guy "can make all the throws."  Mike Mayock liked the pick.  Who knows if it will pan out?  Very few third rounders do.  A lot of prognosticators thought Tom Brady shouldn't have been picked when he was either--at least that year.

Another critique is that we still don't have a decent tight end.  Is anyone paying attention?  This offense does not feature the tight end.  Some folks think the guy we got from Green Bay in Free Agency is a versatile and quality guy.  I guess we'll see.  We were the ninth best offense in the league last year without quality tight end play and with the absence of two Pro Bowl Guards for most of the season.  Is anyone really all that worried about the offense?

Personally, I love the Means pick.  he is quite a character.  He wouldn't be the first guy to come in from a small school and become an NFL Star.  I'm betting he will play a lot.

But I'm as subjective as the next guy.  And I tend toward half-full rather than half-empty.  After all, the secret to sanity if to exaggerate the goodness of the world.

Beatles123

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#1 : April 29, 2013, 09:15:06 PM

fantastic post.

This space for rent....*sigh* I trusted you coach.

dmajik85

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#2 : April 29, 2013, 09:44:09 PM

The fans reaction to the draft reminds me a little of Fox News reaction to the Obama landslide.  All the oundits had it being close or a slight victory for Romney.  Only the people that had done their homework could tell you in advance, like Nate Silver,  that the pundits likely had it all wrong.

Here is my take:

Fewer than 10% of players taken in the first round ever achieve Pro Bowl Status.  Revis is a consensus All Pro and likely a Hall of Famer if he doesn't  re-injure himself or he can't reach his former level of play.

This was not an outstanding draft and many so-called experts said that there was a fine-line between players chosen after the first fifteen and perhaps 100.  A lot of subjectivity goes into these selections and most fans only get the "entertainment tonight" version of the qualities of players.  It's an informed crap-shoot.  You can assess the talent of the very best players and the worst, but the middle 90 per cent is awfully difficult.   After the first two rounds, it's a lot of here-say and judgments of effort and competition and injuries and the like.  Some folks get paid to make these judgments and their jobs are on the line.  Nobody on this board fits that category.  We're fans--some more informed than others--but nonetheless fans.  We haven't interviewed the players, talked to their coaches, looked at their resumes and school records and tried to make an assessment of their attitude and love for football.  That doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't  complain when we think the job done doesn't meet our standards, but at least we could admit that, hey, we're fans, we likely over-estimate or under-estimate our ability to make these judgments.

Why did we take a quarterback--and this quarterback in the third round?  Well, the consensus is that Freeman should have some competition and some guys on this board, I'm not one of them, believe he will flame out.  Most young quarterbacks are raw.  John Gruden who knows a thing or two about quarterbacks thinks this guy "can make all the throws."  Mike Mayock liked the pick.  Who knows if it will pan out?  Very few third rounders do.  A lot of prognosticators thought Tom Brady shouldn't have been picked when he was either--at least that year.

Another critique is that we still don't have a decent tight end.  Is anyone paying attention?  This offense does not feature the tight end.  Some folks think the guy we got from Green Bay in Free Agency is a versatile and quality guy.  I guess we'll see.  We were the ninth best offense in the league last year without quality tight end play and with the absence of two Pro Bowl Guards for most of the season.  Is anyone really all that worried about the offense?

Personally, I love the Means pick.  he is quite a character.  He wouldn't be the first guy to come in from a small school and become an NFL Star.  I'm betting he will play a lot.

But I'm as subjective as the next guy.  And I tend toward half-full rather than half-empty.  After all, the secret to sanity if to exaggerate the goodness of the world.

I agree Buddah.

Re: Glennon... Cosell is a big film guy that accurately forecast Barkley in the 4th. He called Glennon the best QB in this class.

I also believe Means may turn out to be an awesome pick. Just loom at him and read about his temperament and character. Its not hard to envision him pushing for playing time and being a demon.

Bucko40

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#3 : April 29, 2013, 10:10:53 PM

Well thought out. I'll give ya that. But Gruden knows very little about developing a young QB. He's NEVER developed a rookie QB. I had to chuckle at that.

Otherwise. Good post. Fans are not professional football execs

rmiller14

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#4 : April 29, 2013, 11:09:44 PM

Well thought out. I'll give ya that. But Gruden knows very little about developing a young QB. He's NEVER developed a rookie QB. I had to chuckle at that.

Otherwise. Good post. Fans are not professional football execs

Just because he never developed a young QB doesn't disqualify his analysis of QBs.  I think he's a brilliant QB mind, but he just didn't try to grow any young QBs properly.

bradentonian

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#5 : April 29, 2013, 11:50:21 PM

Well thought out. I'll give ya that. But Gruden knows very little about developing a young QB. He's NEVER developed a rookie QB. I had to chuckle at that.

Otherwise. Good post. Fans are not professional football execs

Just because he never developed a young QB doesn't disqualify his analysis of QBs.  I think he's a brilliant QB mind, but he just didn't try to grow any young QBs properly.

He personally worked out Aaron Rodgers and decided to pass on him in favor of a part time RB


BucsGlory

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#6 : April 30, 2013, 12:05:03 AM

The fans reaction to the draft reminds me a little of Fox News reaction to the Obama landslide.  All the oundits had it being close or a slight victory for Romney.  Only the people that had done their homework could tell you in advance, like Nate Silver,  that the pundits likely had it all wrong.

Here is my take:

Fewer than 10% of players taken in the first round ever achieve Pro Bowl Status.  Revis is a consensus All Pro and likely a Hall of Famer if he doesn't  re-injure himself or he can't reach his former level of play.

This was not an outstanding draft and many so-called experts said that there was a fine-line between players chosen after the first fifteen and perhaps 100.  A lot of subjectivity goes into these selections and most fans only get the "entertainment tonight" version of the qualities of players.  It's an informed crap-shoot.  You can assess the talent of the very best players and the worst, but the middle 90 per cent is awfully difficult.   After the first two rounds, it's a lot of here-say and judgments of effort and competition and injuries and the like.  Some folks get paid to make these judgments and their jobs are on the line.  Nobody on this board fits that category.  We're fans--some more informed than others--but nonetheless fans.  We haven't interviewed the players, talked to their coaches, looked at their resumes and school records and tried to make an assessment of their attitude and love for football.  That doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't  complain when we think the job done doesn't meet our standards, but at least we could admit that, hey, we're fans, we likely over-estimate or under-estimate our ability to make these judgments.

Why did we take a quarterback--and this quarterback in the third round?  Well, the consensus is that Freeman should have some competition and some guys on this board, I'm not one of them, believe he will flame out.  Most young quarterbacks are raw.  John Gruden who knows a thing or two about quarterbacks thinks this guy "can make all the throws."  Mike Mayock liked the pick.  Who knows if it will pan out?  Very few third rounders do.  A lot of prognosticators thought Tom Brady shouldn't have been picked when he was either--at least that year.

Another critique is that we still don't have a decent tight end.  Is anyone paying attention?  This offense does not feature the tight end.  Some folks think the guy we got from Green Bay in Free Agency is a versatile and quality guy.  I guess we'll see.  We were the ninth best offense in the league last year without quality tight end play and with the absence of two Pro Bowl Guards for most of the season.  Is anyone really all that worried about the offense?

Personally, I love the Means pick.  he is quite a character.  He wouldn't be the first guy to come in from a small school and become an NFL Star.  I'm betting he will play a lot.

But I'm as subjective as the next guy.  And I tend toward half-full rather than half-empty.  After all, the secret to sanity if to exaggerate the goodness of the world.

Great post. Agree with you 100%, I got no idea what dom wants in a player... I just watch games and give my thoughts on what the needs.
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