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michael89156

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« : June 22, 2013, 12:11:11 AM »



Doug Martin's production with and without Carl Nicks

 Jun 21 2013




Mike Ehrmann


In the 2012 offseason, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed a two time Pro Bowler (2010 and 2011) and one-time All Pro in 2011 in guard Carl Nicks for the tune of $47.5 million for five years. He would play opposite of Tampa’s own Pro Bowl guard Davin Joseph. Thoughts of then bruising RB Blount, bursting through the middle of the line and dragging defenders with him as holes would open up as wide as the Panama Canal would be created by these Pro Bowl studs of Nicks and Joseph.
 
Things changed. The Bucs drafted a diminutive ball of kinetic energy in a running back whose college teammates aptly called him the Muscle Hamster in Doug Martin. Then before the regular season had a chance to come to fruition, Joseph went down for the whole season with a knee injury. After seven games into the regular season, Nicks was lost for the rest of the season with a toe injury. Seven games in and Blount has amassed a gargantuan amount of yards to a total of 116. On the seventh game alone, Martin rumbled for 135 yards against the Vikings; outrunning Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson by 12 yards.
 
Losing two Pro Bowl guards for the rest of the season after game seven would imply that the running game would depreciate as fast as one would drive off a car lot with a brand new, first owner vehicle. Or that of actor Kevin James speed of decent after reaching his maxima of doing a cannonball into a pool. Below is a chart shows the run game with Nicks, which is the first seven games, and without. This does not include Doug Martin’s rushing stats.
 

Rushing Yards
 
With Nicks and Without Nicks
 
(Not Including Doug Martin)

 
Games                       Total Yards                   Average Yards
 

#1 – 7                              227                                32.4
 
#8 – 16                            156                                17.3
 

Difference                      – 71                             – 15.1
 

ESPN stats, but I did the calculation.
 

Granted, Joseph did not play at all this season, thus we can focus on Nicks. Obviously, this is a simple generalization and not broken down into where the running backs would run behind Nicks, but Nicks is a huge cog… or at least we make him out to be a huge cog on our line, our offense. As one may notice in the aforementioned, our running backs outside of Martin suffered. Would Martin follow that same path? Did Martin earn a majority of his 1,454 yards rushing during those first seven games with Nicks as his guard?
 

Rushing Yards, Martin only
 
With Nicks and Without Nicks

 

Games                       Total Yards                          Average Yards
 
#1 – 7                              543                                        77.57
 
#8 – 16                            911                                       101.22

Difference                    + 368                                      + 23.65
 

Blink, blink. Doug Martin excelled after Pro Bowl guard Nicks went down for the season? So… ummm… huh.
 
There are some fans who cannot wait to have Nicks back as well as Joseph. Yet with the numbers posted above, one has to question whether our patch-up offensive line overachieved or did Martin overachieve? Or maybe our backup or third down running backs were simply that abysmal? Or maybe Nicks’ toe injury really did hamper his play? Maybe this Bostad might be worth keeping because we have to start shaving and saving monies somewhere and the offensive line might be the place to skimp out on even though a majority of us think that games are won at the trenches. Then again, I did not look at any passing statistic either.
 
Carl Nicks, I am expecting more from a mauler like you this coming season to help Martin try to break Benjamins on average per game when you are on the field!




http://www.bucsnation.com/2013/6/21/4449534/running-outside-the-nick-of-time

tatmanfish

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« #1 : June 22, 2013, 12:15:40 AM »

Or one can come to the conclusion martin was a rookie that struggled early......



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LABuc

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« #2 : June 22, 2013, 12:34:46 AM »

What's that one overused quote...?

There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Derrick Brooks, NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2014.

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« #3 : June 22, 2013, 01:22:24 AM »

Statistics are fine as long as they are used within the frame work of the totality of the actual situation. The offense through the first seven weeks struggled as a whole and Martin was still learning to trust what he was seeing with Lorig as his lead blocker. It was about the time Nicks went on IR after week eight against the Vikings, but during the Vikings game Martin had his coming out party and the offense as a whole started to fire on all cylinders. Then the offense took a  nose dive in the final month of the season. During those first seven games Martin averaged 18.4 rushing attempts per game. Over the last nine weeks of the season Martin averaged 21.1 rushing attempts per game. Its also worth noting that of the 911 yards 457 of them came within a three week span starting with the Raiders game and culminating with the second Panthers game.   

One would think if you are going to paint a Pro Bowl guard as the reason the team was ineffective at running the football you would have the facts or present the entire case rather then a few numbers to have the uneducated masses believe the mess that that author is spewing.

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« #4 : June 22, 2013, 01:41:35 AM »

What I take from that is, Martin is a helluva RB that will succeed behind any line.  Where as, the other RB's couldn't. .

And its not a rip on Nicks, Doug was just starting to get his groove when Nicks went down.  That is purely coincidental.


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« #5 : June 22, 2013, 05:48:50 AM »

What I take from that is, Martin is a helluva RB that will succeed behind any line.  Where as, the other RB's couldn't. .

And its not a rip on Nicks, Doug was just starting to get his groove when Nicks went down.  That is purely coincidental.

This

Dolorous Jason

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« #6 : June 22, 2013, 09:40:59 AM »

The numbers are skewed because he took about 5 games to adjust to the speed of the NFL game , and also skewed due to the Oakland game when he went Tecmo Bowl stats.

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

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« #7 : June 22, 2013, 10:44:47 AM »

How does the Oakland game skew anything? It's not like it was a scrimmage game. It was in fact a real game with real players and Doug did what he did. It doesn't skew anything. Its just reality.


Feel Real Good

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« #8 : June 22, 2013, 01:13:20 PM »

I didn't think Nicks was that good last year. I don't think he was ever healthy.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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« #9 : June 22, 2013, 01:22:31 PM »

this is simple correlation, not causation.

And with the first pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Teddy Bridgewater, Quarterback, Louisville.

BucDaFackUp

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« #10 : June 22, 2013, 01:58:05 PM »

Stats are great as a side dish but they'll never be a main course...

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« #11 : June 22, 2013, 02:01:36 PM »

Is it possible that Martin's comfort level increased at around the time that Brickhouse went on IR? Nawwwwwwww

Dolorous Jason

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« #12 : June 22, 2013, 03:43:54 PM »

How does the Oakland game skew anything? It's not like it was a scrimmage game. It was in fact a real game with real players and Doug did what he did. It doesn't skew anything. Its just reality.

Because if you are saying he ran better without Nicks, but a third of the yards came in one crazy game , its not giving you a completely accurate picture of what happened as a whole in all the other games. It really happened , but the aberration still skewed the numbers of the overall average.

The fact that the numbers are skewed should be obvious unless you actually believe not having Nicks helps Martin , which is just an idiotic thing to believe.
« : June 22, 2013, 04:02:37 PM Fire Mark Dummynik »

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

tatmanfish

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« #13 : June 23, 2013, 05:03:56 PM »

Martin only broke 100yds in a handful of games. Those other games he struggled and his per carry was actually pretty low. He seemed to do better as the year went on. Hopefully that continues this year and he becomes more consistent. It seemed more of a vision issue early though, so he should continue to be great.



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« #14 : June 23, 2013, 05:29:27 PM »

Martin only broke 100yds in a handful of games. Those other games he struggled and his per carry was actually pretty low. He seemed to do better as the year went on. Hopefully that continues this year and he becomes more consistent. It seemed more of a vision issue early though, so he should continue to be great.


You keep saying that, but the best RBs in the he league, the guys who average like 1500 yards a season... Only have a handful of 100+ yard games. What exactly are you expecting?

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