Welcome, Guest
Pewter Report  >>  Boards  >>  The Red Board (Moderators: 3rd String Kicker, PRPatrol)  >>  Topic: Mike Glennon confident « previous next »
Page: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 ... 26

Biff Barker

*****
Pro Bowler

Posts : 1130
Offline
#105 : July 24, 2013, 12:45:10 PM

Stop trying to act like you're smarter than the guys that are paid to do this... They know their plan and direction for the team.
There are 31 other teams who have a plan and direction, too. If too many of their plans are better than your plans, you're getting fired. Every year 5-8 NFL coaches who know a lot more than me get fired because their plan didn't work.
Now you are arguing just for the sake of it.
Glennon is here because JFro is shaky. Schiano and Dom can't afford having all their eggs in one basket. They think they can develop this kid into being a starter. If they fall short, he's a decent backup.
Their plan is not to get fired because all they have is Freeman. In short, they are well aware JFro is erratic and sucks out loud sometimes. The entire NFL, outside Shaun King, knows this.

Feel Real Good

******
Hall of Famer

Posts : 26722
Online
#106 : July 24, 2013, 01:16:44 PM

Stop trying to act like you're smarter than the guys that are paid to do this... They know their plan and direction for the team.
There are 31 other teams who have a plan and direction, too. If too many of their plans are better than your plans, you're getting fired. Every year 5-8 NFL coaches who know a lot more than me get fired because their plan didn't work.
Now you are arguing just for the sake of it.
Glennon is here because JFro is shaky. Schiano and Dom can't afford having all their eggs in one basket. They think they can develop this kid into being a starter. If they fall short, he's a decent backup.
Their plan is not to get fired because all they have is Freeman. In short, they are well aware JFro is erratic and sucks out loud sometimes. The entire NFL, outside Shaun King, knows this.
I know Josh Freeman is shaky. But for the mosr part he can be blamed on Raheem Morris. Once Freeman is gone, whoever replaces him isn't Raheem Morris' problem, he's Mark Dominik and Greg Schiano's problem. If they play Glennon in 2014 and he's no better than Freeman, that will mean six years for Dominik with no playoffs and three for Schiano. GM's and coaches don't typically get much more that that. You don't get a lifetime contract to just keep looking for a QB. You get 1-2 chances and then you get fired and someone else gets that chance.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

QaZ

*****
Pro Bowler

Posts : 1990
Offline
#107 : July 24, 2013, 01:31:31 PM


I know Josh Freeman is shaky. But for the mosr part he can be blamed on Raheem Morris. Once Freeman is gone, whoever replaces him isn't Raheem Morris' problem, he's Mark Dominik and Greg Schiano's problem. If they play Glennon in 2014 and he's no better than Freeman, that will mean six years for Dominik with no playoffs and three for Schiano. GM's and coaches don't typically get much more that that. You don't get a lifetime contract to just keep looking for a QB. You get 1-2 chances and then you get fired and someone else gets that chance.

And if the 1st rounder (or whoever replaces Freeman instead of Glennon) plays in 2014 and is not better than Freeman(or Glennon) that will mean six years for Dom with no playoffs ....I see no difference at all.  There's no "But the 1st rounder HAD a 11% chance of succeeding, atleast i did not waste a 3rd rounder on ANOTHER QB"

Feel Real Good

******
Hall of Famer

Posts : 26722
Online
#108 : July 24, 2013, 01:38:48 PM


I know Josh Freeman is shaky. But for the mosr part he can be blamed on Raheem Morris. Once Freeman is gone, whoever replaces him isn't Raheem Morris' problem, he's Mark Dominik and Greg Schiano's problem. If they play Glennon in 2014 and he's no better than Freeman, that will mean six years for Dominik with no playoffs and three for Schiano. GM's and coaches don't typically get much more that that. You don't get a lifetime contract to just keep looking for a QB. You get 1-2 chances and then you get fired and someone else gets that chance.

And if the 1st rounder (or whoever replaces Freeman instead of Glennon) plays in 2014 and is not better than Freeman(or Glennon) that will mean six years for Dom with no playoffs ....I see no difference at all.  There's no "But the 1st rounder HAD a 11% chance of succeeding, atleast i did not waste a 3rd rounder on ANOTHER QB"
Yes, you can get fired just as easily for having a bad 1st round QB as a bad 3rd round QB, but the numbers are what they are. In the last ten years there have only been two successful mid round QB's, Matt Schaub and Russell Wilson, and some people don't even think Schaub is all that. Virtually every other successful QB over that time came from the 1st round or at worst the first ten picks of the 2nd round. If Dominik and Schiano want to try things the hard way, it's not my employment that's at stake.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

QaZ

*****
Pro Bowler

Posts : 1990
Offline
#109 : July 24, 2013, 01:57:32 PM

Yes, you can get fired just as easily for having a bad 1st round QB as a bad 3rd round QB, but the numbers are what they are. In the last ten years there have only been two successful mid round QB's, Matt Schaub and Russell Wilson, and some people don't even think Schaub is all that. Virtually every other successful QB over that time came from the 1st round or at worst the first ten picks of the 2nd round. If Dominik and Schiano want to try things the hard way, it's not my employment that's at stake.

Again, when did Dom and Schiano say they would stop drafting QBs for the next few years? How does Glennon keep us from drafting a guy we LIKE?

Glennon + possibilty to draft a QB in the 1st round of 2014 >> HAVING to draft a QB in 2014, no matter who is available, no matter how good those guys are compared to Glennon with one year of NFL experience.

freddy

*
Hall of Famer
******
Posts : 3572
Offline
#110 : July 24, 2013, 02:22:07 PM


I know Josh Freeman is shaky. But for the mosr part he can be blamed on Raheem Morris. Once Freeman is gone, whoever replaces him isn't Raheem Morris' problem, he's Mark Dominik and Greg Schiano's problem. If they play Glennon in 2014 and he's no better than Freeman, that will mean six years for Dominik with no playoffs and three for Schiano. GM's and coaches don't typically get much more that that. You don't get a lifetime contract to just keep looking for a QB. You get 1-2 chances and then you get fired and someone else gets that chance.

And if the 1st rounder (or whoever replaces Freeman instead of Glennon) plays in 2014 and is not better than Freeman(or Glennon) that will mean six years for Dom with no playoffs ....I see no difference at all.  There's no "But the 1st rounder HAD a 11% chance of succeeding, atleast i did not waste a 3rd rounder on ANOTHER QB"
Yes, you can get fired just as easily for having a bad 1st round QB as a bad 3rd round QB, but the numbers are what they are. In the last ten years there have only been two successful mid round QB's, Matt Schaub and Russell Wilson, and some people don't even think Schaub is all that. Virtually every other successful QB over that time came from the 1st round or at worst the first ten picks of the 2nd round. If Dominik and Schiano want to try things the hard way, it's not my employment that's at stake.

In the last 'Glennon was a wasted pick thread', you tried to state the same thing.  You went on and on how QB's selected in the 3rd round have such a low success rate of about 10%.  When I showed you how 1st round picks had a 10% - 15% success rate, you suddenly stopped commenting.  Your "numbers" were just as wrong in that conversation as they are now.


BTW, before you try and deny it or change your previous post, here is your link.....

The bottom line is we know the best drafting teams usually only end up with 2-3 decent-to-good players out of each draft and we know QB's drafted outside of the top 40 only become good starters about 10% of the time.

Dolorous Jason

******
Hall of Famer

Posts : 15529
Online
#111 : July 24, 2013, 02:31:56 PM

What's the percentage of a guy becoming a solid starter for a team that doesn't bother drafting him at all ? Somewhere around zero ?

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

Feel Real Good

******
Hall of Famer

Posts : 26722
Online
#112 : July 24, 2013, 02:33:06 PM

In the last 'Glennon was a wasted pick thread', you tried to state the same thing.  You went on and on how QB's selected in the 3rd round have such a low success rate of about 10%.  When I showed you how 1st round picks had a 10% - 15% success rate, you suddenly stopped commenting.  Your "numbers" were just as wrong in that conversation as they are now.
I recall you claiming the success rate of 1st round QB's was 10-15%, but I don't at all recall you using any data to back it up (surprise, surprise). I'll mnake it easy. Here are the top 20 QBR's for 2012 and where those QB's came from:

1. Rodgers: 1st round
2. P. Manning: 1st round
3. Griffin: 1st round
4. Wilson: 3rd round
5. Ryan: 1st round
6. Brady: 6th round
7. Kaepernick: top of 2nd round
8. Roethlisberger: 1st round
9. Brees: top of 2nd round
10. Schaub: 3rd round
11. Romo: undrafted
12. Rivers: 1st round
13. Flacco: 1st round
14. Dalton: top of 2nd
15. E. Manning: 1st round
16. Newton: 1st round
17. Palmer: 1st round
18. Fitzpatrick: 7th round
19. Bradford: 1st round
20. Freeman: 1st round

Out of 20 players, 15 were drafted by the first few picks of the 2nd round, 2 were mid rounders, and 3 were late rounders or undrafted. If these are the odds you want to play, I guess you like gambling a lot.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

VinBucFan

*
Hall of Famer
******
Posts : 17703
Offline
#113 : July 24, 2013, 02:35:41 PM

What's the percentage of a guy becoming a solid starter for a team that doesn't bother drafting him at all ? Somewhere around zero ?

Surprisingly, according to PFF the NOTSS  (Not On Team to Sold Starter) percentage is 6.7%  Word of warning though, the math was done by the same guy who said Quincy Black was the Bucs next Secret Superstar and heir apparent to Brooks.   ;)

VinBucFan

*
Hall of Famer
******
Posts : 17703
Offline
#114 : July 24, 2013, 02:54:16 PM

In the last 'Glennon was a wasted pick thread', you tried to state the same thing.  You went on and on how QB's selected in the 3rd round have such a low success rate of about 10%.  When I showed you how 1st round picks had a 10% - 15% success rate, you suddenly stopped commenting.  Your "numbers" were just as wrong in that conversation as they are now.
I recall you claiming the success rate of 1st round QB's was 10-15%, but I don't at all recall you using any data to back it up (surprise, surprise). I'll mnake it easy. Here are the top 20 QBR's for 2012 and where those QB's came from:

1. Rodgers: 1st round
2. P. Manning: 1st round
3. Griffin: 1st round
4. Wilson: 3rd round
5. Ryan: 1st round
6. Brady: 6th round
7. Kaepernick: top of 2nd round
8. Roethlisberger: 1st round
9. Brees: top of 2nd round
10. Schaub: 3rd round
11. Romo: undrafted
12. Rivers: 1st round
13. Flacco: 1st round
14. Dalton: top of 2nd
15. E. Manning: 1st round
16. Newton: 1st round
17. Palmer: 1st round
18. Fitzpatrick: 7th round
19. Bradford: 1st round
20. Freeman: 1st round

Out of 20 players, 15 were drafted by the first few picks of the 2nd round, 2 were mid rounders, and 3 were late rounders or undrafted. If these are the odds you want to play, I guess you like gambling a lot.

How does a partial list tell us the odds?  Definitely not a stat guy, but don't you have to have a broader sample than just the self-defined "successes?" According to ESPN's 2012 QBR list, these are the bottom by their QBR, in declining order:

Gabbert - 1st round
Rivers - 1st round
Cassel - 7th round
Henne - 2nd round
Quinn - 1st round
Weedon - 1st round
Sanchez - 1st round

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

the world is not easily defined by stats

JDouble

*
Hall of Famer
******
Posts : 28399
Online
#115 : July 24, 2013, 03:01:04 PM

The thing I don't get is this idea by many that it was a good pick because we needed a good back up. This doesn't add up to me. There are always plenty of options for a veteran back up. There was nothing wrong with Dan the Man Orlovsky as our back up. You want your back up to be a veterna game manager that can get you through a game or two if need be. Not a rookie that has the ceiling of a good back up. No, you don't replace a veteran back QB with a rookie QB unless you think he something special. You don't spend a 3rd round pick on a career back up. The Bucs obviously feel Glennon has what it takes to be an eventual starter, or they would not have taken him in the 3rd round.
: July 24, 2013, 03:03:00 PM JDouble

Draft Aaron Donald



Dolorous Jason

******
Hall of Famer

Posts : 15529
Online
#116 : July 24, 2013, 03:52:29 PM

The thing I don't get is this idea by many that it was a good pick because we needed a good back up. This doesn't add up to me. There are always plenty of options for a veteran back up. There was nothing wrong with Dan the Man Orlovsky as our back up. You want your back up to be a veterna game manager that can get you through a game or two if need be. Not a rookie that has the ceiling of a good back up. No, you don't replace a veteran back QB with a rookie QB unless you think he something special. You don't spend a 3rd round pick on a career back up. The Bucs obviously feel Glennon has what it takes to be an eventual starter, or they would not have taken him in the 3rd round.


Orlovsky might be fine if we had Aaron Rodgers as our starter . We don't . Why not get a guy with upside who can push Freeman , and who knows , maybe one day be a better option ??


Besides , even teams with great QB's invest in drafting QB's.  Having too many good QB's is never a bad thing for a team. Look at a smart organization like the Patriots , they have Tom Brady , but they still draft QB's . Why ?? Well , usually , after those guys come in to play in relief or in preseason and look good , they parlay that QB into higher draft picks than they used on them . We saw them do that with Cassel , and this offseason they were shopping around Mallet trying to do the same thing. 
: July 24, 2013, 03:54:11 PM Fire Mark Dummynik

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

Bucfucious

******
Hall of Famer

Posts : 3681
Offline
#117 : July 24, 2013, 03:57:55 PM

Around here, Mark Dominik gets praised for getting a 6th or 7th round pick for some loser he spent a second round pick on to begin with. One can only imagine the laurels bestowed upon him if he got a second rounder for Glennon somewhere down the line.

Pteranodon

*****
Pro Bowler

Posts : 1285
Offline
#118 : July 24, 2013, 04:02:24 PM


Besides , even teams with great QB's invest in drafting QB's.  Having too many good QB's is never a bad thing for a team. Look at a smart organization like the Patriots , they have Tom Brady , but they still draft QB's . Why ?? Well , usually , after those guys come in to play in relief or in preseason and look good , they parlay that QB into higher draft picks than they used on them . We saw them do that with Cassel , and this offseason they were shopping around Mallet trying to do the same thing.

Good point that successful teams do that, I'm not sure why some fans can't understand drafting backup QB's when it's the most important position on the field.

JDouble

*
Hall of Famer
******
Posts : 28399
Online
#119 : July 24, 2013, 04:05:50 PM



Orlovsky might be fine if we had Aaron Rodgers as our starter . We don't . Why not get a guy with upside who can push Freeman , and who knows , maybe one day be a better option ??

Well that is fine and I actually agree....but then just say that. I keep seeing people claim we just drafted him to be a back up and it was a good pick.....which is nonsense. The Bucs think he is starter material, so if you support the pick then just own it. Not you as in "you" specifically, but all the folks that keep claiming it was a good pick because we needed a back up.

Draft Aaron Donald


Page: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 ... 26
Pewter Report  >>  Boards  >>  The Red Board (Moderators: 3rd String Kicker, PRPatrol)  >>  Topic: Mike Glennon confident « previous next »
:

Hide Tools Show Tools