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NotDeadYet

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#15 : November 13, 2013, 10:39:38 PM

    The most likely first round pick to NOT be a bust has for a while been O-line. Not sure where QB ranks in comparison. Personally, given our lack of speed at WR, I don't see where drafting a QB early next season would help us much NEXT season.
Maybe down the road once we upgraded our WRs he would, but then Glennon would do better with some speed at WR too.
    Someone mentioned earlier if we are picking early round 1 it would mean Glennon likely had regressed this season, whereas if we pick later in round 1 Glennon would've had a good year this season. A lot of truth there...

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#16 : November 13, 2013, 11:38:10 PM

    We've had our share of first round franchise QB busts here in Tampa Bay. Freeman was just the latest. How about Trent Dilfer? And Testaverde was a bust here, although he developed into a respectable QB elsewhere. Then we traded the #1 pick for Jack Thompson, and a 2nd overall for Chris Chandler. There may be more...

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#17 : November 14, 2013, 12:04:50 AM

 I think there is a difference in a late first round, or even latter half of the first round, and #1 or top three picks of QBs. More than half of the starting QB's in the league are top 12 picks, and more than half of those are overall #1 picks. I doubt the Bucs are there for #1, but if they are and they pass on a top notch QB, it would be a monumental mistake imo.

Dolorous Jason

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#18 : November 14, 2013, 08:03:27 AM

But this is why you don't tank .

It doesn't assure you a damn thing . Play hard and develop the guys currently on the roster. Let's get them all playing better and with more confidence . Then let the chips fall where they may in the draft.

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

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#19 : November 14, 2013, 08:08:39 AM

Food for thought: draft a QB in top of the draft and fail -- it can set a franchise back 3-7 years...

This is a QB driven league...not doubt...so you had better nail that pick

Here is a question for ya'll...Is RG III a franchise QB? He won some games last year...got hurt...and has struggled early in the season. The skins are almost sure to miss the playoffs...so, is RG III 'the franchise' or was last yr just a fluke?

It takes more than talent to be the franchise...just sayin


Feel Real Good

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#20 : November 14, 2013, 08:38:46 AM

EDIT: If you saw the 1st list of 17, I sorted on the wrong column and left out some of the QB, below is the correct information.

Here are the QB's selected in the top 5 since 1993.  How many true franchise QB's do you see?  I see maybe 4 real franchise QB, 9 maybe at best and and 14 clearly not a franchise QB.  So split the maybe's (give the bonus to yes) and that is 9 yes and 18 no.  So a 1 in three shot of a franchise QB by my count.


Year   Round   Pick   Name
2012   1   1   Andrew Luck
           1   2   Robert Griffin III
2011   1   1   Cam Newton
2010   1   1   Sam Bradford
2009   1   1   Matthew Stafford
           1   5   Mark Sanchez
2008   1   3   Matt Ryan
2007   1   1   JaMarcus Russell
2006   1   3   Vince Young
2005   1   1   Alex Smith
2004   1   1   Eli Manning
           1   4   Philip Rivers
2003   1   1   Carson Palmer
2002   1   1   David Carr
           1   3   Joey Harrington
2001   1   1   Michael Vick
1999   1   1   Tim Couch
           1   2   Donovan McNabb
           1   3   Akili Smith
1998   1   1   Peyton Manning
           1   2   Ryan Leaf
1995   1   3   Steve McNair
           1   5   Kerry Collins
1994   1   3   Heath Shuler
1993   1   1   Drew Bledsoe
           1   2   Rick Mirer
I personally like to think that scouts have gotten better and there's no way guys like Joey Harrington would have been top 5 picks today. If you go back ten years to Carson Palmer, I have it at 8 out of 12 successful QB selections.

FRG is the most logical poster on this board.  You guys just don\'t like where the logical conclusions take you.

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#21 : November 14, 2013, 08:41:41 AM

EDIT: If you saw the 1st list of 17, I sorted on the wrong column and left out some of the QB, below is the correct information.

Here are the QB's selected in the top 5 since 1993.  How many true franchise QB's do you see?  I see maybe 4 real franchise QB, 9 maybe at best and and 14 clearly not a franchise QB.  So split the maybe's (give the bonus to yes) and that is 9 yes and 18 no.  So a 1 in three shot of a franchise QB by my count.


Year   Round   Pick   Name
2012   1   1   Andrew Luck
           1   2   Robert Griffin III
2011   1   1   Cam Newton
2010   1   1   Sam Bradford
2009   1   1   Matthew Stafford
           1   5   Mark Sanchez
2008   1   3   Matt Ryan
2007   1   1   JaMarcus Russell
2006   1   3   Vince Young
2005   1   1   Alex Smith
2004   1   1   Eli Manning
           1   4   Philip Rivers
2003   1   1   Carson Palmer
2002   1   1   David Carr
           1   3   Joey Harrington
2001   1   1   Michael Vick
1999   1   1   Tim Couch
           1   2   Donovan McNabb
           1   3   Akili Smith
1998   1   1   Peyton Manning
           1   2   Ryan Leaf
1995   1   3   Steve McNair
           1   5   Kerry Collins
1994   1   3   Heath Shuler
1993   1   1   Drew Bledsoe
           1   2   Rick Mirer

Go back just 10 years... there's only 4 busts, Freeman, Sanchez, Russell, and Young.  You have 8 guys who are/were franchise QB's at one point and Bradford still an unknown.  So you can see that the rules and better access to information has led to approximately a 67% success rate in recent years.  You can obviously see the improvement based on the last 10 years (in your sample), because you have 8 busts and 5 franchise QB's.

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#22 : November 14, 2013, 09:04:22 AM

I think you also have to compare the *success* rate of first round quarterbacks versus quarterbacks taken later.  Certainly, I don't think that anyone would suggest that first round qbs are guaranteed to work out or that later round qbs can't - it's just that highly rated draft prospects are more likely to work out.  A team drafts a quarterback in the sixth, they're a heck of a lot more likely to get a Curtis Painter than a Tom Brady.  They draft one with a top 3 pick, well, they still may wind up with a Russell, sure.  But the odds are still more in your favor.

And yes, the opportunity cost of drafting a Russell is worse than it is drafting a Painter.  That's true of all positions though.  Actually, both arguments are.  It's just that hitting on that top quarterback pick does more for a team than any other position.

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#23 : November 14, 2013, 09:14:21 AM

I wouldn't say Bradford is pending at all. You wanna be pol tannish and bring up his td-int ratio? Look at his YPA. He's not the answer. Palmer looked like the answer  but was never the same after the injury vs. Pitt.

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#24 : November 14, 2013, 09:17:09 AM

Bradford isn't terrible , he simply doesn't come close to living up to #1 pick status . If we decide Glennon is our guy at the end of the season then I think Bradford would be a great signing for us . He's someone who can push Glennon in camp and then be a fail-safe if Glennon turns into Chris Simms Part II

What is your point? I was wrong? Ok. You win. I was wrong.

           

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#25 : November 14, 2013, 09:21:15 AM

EDIT: If you saw the 1st list of 17, I sorted on the wrong column and left out some of the QB, below is the correct information.

Here are the QB's selected in the top 5 since 1993.  How many true franchise QB's do you see?  I see maybe 4 real franchise QB, 9 maybe at best and and 14 clearly not a franchise QB.  So split the maybe's (give the bonus to yes) and that is 9 yes and 18 no.  So a 1 in three shot of a franchise QB by my count.


Year   Round   Pick   Name
2012   1   1   Andrew Luck
           1   2   Robert Griffin III
2011   1   1   Cam Newton
2010   1   1   Sam Bradford
2009   1   1   Matthew Stafford
           1   5   Mark Sanchez
2008   1   3   Matt Ryan
2007   1   1   JaMarcus Russell
2006   1   3   Vince Young
2005   1   1   Alex Smith
2004   1   1   Eli Manning
           1   4   Philip Rivers
2003   1   1   Carson Palmer
2002   1   1   David Carr
           1   3   Joey Harrington
2001   1   1   Michael Vick
1999   1   1   Tim Couch
           1   2   Donovan McNabb
           1   3   Akili Smith
1998   1   1   Peyton Manning
           1   2   Ryan Leaf
1995   1   3   Steve McNair
           1   5   Kerry Collins
1994   1   3   Heath Shuler
1993   1   1   Drew Bledsoe
           1   2   Rick Mirer
I personally like to think that scouts have gotten better and there's no way guys like Joey Harrington would have been top 5 picks today. If you go back ten years to Carson Palmer, I have it at 8 out of 12 successful QB selections.
i counted 13 that had respectable careers.  Some better than others of coarse.


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#26 : November 14, 2013, 09:22:01 AM

Here are a list of first-round QB busts throughout the years. Unfortunately, first on the list (sorted by date, not bustiness) is our one recent failure, Josh Freeman:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/photos/7001/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-first-round-busts/1/

Out of curiosity, what is the point of your thread?

And it should be noted that taking a QB in the top five, and the bust rate involved, is quite a bit different than picking a QB in the middle/bottom of the first round.


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#27 : November 14, 2013, 09:22:04 AM

And FRG is right, scouting is better these days.


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#28 : November 14, 2013, 09:28:58 AM

Bradford isn't terrible , he simply doesn't come close to living up to #1 pick status . If we decide Glennon is our guy at the end of the season then I think Bradford would be a great signing for us . He's someone who can push Glennon in camp and then be a fail-safe if Glennon turns into Chris Simms Part II
You're insane. Put up on straight jacket.
We need a franchise QB, not a band aid. Yes, Bradford isn't terrible.... And that is the problem. Freeman wasn't terrible in 2010 and at least superficially didn't look that way in 2012. We finally get free from the almost-good enough syndrome and you want to get back into it?
David Garrard, Jon Kitna, Jason Campbell, Jim Hart, the list goes on... Norm Snead, Steve DeBerg....
You avoid this type of QB at all costs. They can waste decades of your time and play just well enough to keep you from getting to where you want to go.

In Verner We Trust

TBayXXXVII

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#29 : November 14, 2013, 09:31:07 AM

I wouldn't say Bradford is pending at all. You wanna be pol tannish and bring up his td-int ratio? Look at his YPA. He's not the answer. Palmer looked like the answer  but was never the same after the injury vs. Pitt.

Bradford has been surrounded by completely inept receiving weapons.  The only good one he had, Amendola, is a china doll.  Not one receiver that Bradford played with was good before, during, or after his time in St. Louis.  Yes, franchise QB's are supposed to make players better, but if there's no hope for said player, then it doesn't matter who the QB is.  I'm not saying Bradford is a star in the making, but I don't think he's a bust.
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