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acacius

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#45 : November 14, 2013, 04:14:37 PM

Try to keep in mind that draft position doesn't make a player. Drafting someone a round later won't magically make them worse and reaching on a player won't magically make them better. I understand probability and stats but come on.

Do your scouting and pick the winner.
Duh.  When people talk about probability, they're just saying that a guy who your scouts rate as a top 3 pick is more likely to be a good player than a guy your scouts rate as a third rounder.  This is a counterargument to the people who say that the team sucks at drafting players or because busts are so common anyways and good players can be found later in the draft, so we therefore shouldn't worry about draft position.  Not an argument that players are good *because* they're taken with a high draft pick.

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#46 : November 14, 2013, 05:07:57 PM

Again, it depends on your definition. He wastes their time so he is a bust. Terrible? No. Just outside the top third of QBs. Dangerous place  to be.

I don't necessarily agree with this.

In 2011 he completed 53.5% of his passes and had a 70.5 passer rating
In 2012 he completed 59.5% of his passes and had a 82.6 passer rating
In 2013 he completed 60.7% of his passes and had a 90.9 passer rating

He's getting better every year and there's zero consistency in his weapons.
You conveniently left out the 60.0 percent passing in his rookie year, so that the second number would represent a regression. You also leave out the fact that in two of those three years he only played about a half season because of injuries, being fragile being one of the top criticisms of him. En route to a fourth consecutive losing season.

LOL, yeah, because absolutely no QB ever had a "sophomore slump", right?  Please.

jerseybucsfan

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#47 : November 14, 2013, 05:16:58 PM

Again, it depends on your definition. He wastes their time so he is a bust. Terrible? No. Just outside the top third of QBs. Dangerous place  to be.

I don't necessarily agree with this.

In 2011 he completed 53.5% of his passes and had a 70.5 passer rating
In 2012 he completed 59.5% of his passes and had a 82.6 passer rating
In 2013 he completed 60.7% of his passes and had a 90.9 passer rating

He's getting better every year and there's zero consistency in his weapons.
You conveniently left out the 60.0 percent passing in his rookie year, so that the second number would represent a regression. You also leave out the fact that in two of those three years he only played about a half season because of injuries, being fragile being one of the top criticisms of him. En route to a fourth consecutive losing season.

LOL, yeah, because absolutely no QB ever had a "sophomore slump", right?  Please.
His ypa went down from his third year to his fourth. His sack totals have been consistently high. And the team's best win this year came with him on the bench.

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TBayXXXVII

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#48 : November 15, 2013, 08:36:44 AM

Again, it depends on your definition. He wastes their time so he is a bust. Terrible? No. Just outside the top third of QBs. Dangerous place  to be.

I don't necessarily agree with this.

In 2011 he completed 53.5% of his passes and had a 70.5 passer rating
In 2012 he completed 59.5% of his passes and had a 82.6 passer rating
In 2013 he completed 60.7% of his passes and had a 90.9 passer rating

He's getting better every year and there's zero consistency in his weapons.
You conveniently left out the 60.0 percent passing in his rookie year, so that the second number would represent a regression. You also leave out the fact that in two of those three years he only played about a half season because of injuries, being fragile being one of the top criticisms of him. En route to a fourth consecutive losing season.

LOL, yeah, because absolutely no QB ever had a "sophomore slump", right?  Please.
His ypa went down from his third year to his fourth. His sack totals have been consistently high. And the team's best win this year came with him on the bench.

Woah, a whole whopping 0.28 ypa drop!  You know what, cut him.  You're right.  I mean, it's not like he lost his best target and got 2 rookies instead.

Cutler, Romo, Flacco, and Rivers were all sacked more each year.  What's that prove?  I don't watch all his games, so I don't know if it's a Bradford issue or a O-Line issue, but it's not like he's being sacked an absurd number of times.

You need some really long arms if you're reaching for that last one.

Like I said, he's not a lock, but I don't think he's a bust.  I certainly don't think they wasted time on him.  I'd definitely give him 1 more season to see what's what.

LuckyLarry

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#49 : November 15, 2013, 10:57:55 PM

The worst QB bust of all time is Josh Freeman.

Skull and Bones

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#50 : November 16, 2013, 11:36:58 AM

Agreed Todd.  Dude, you know football.  Welcome to the board. 


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#51 : November 16, 2013, 02:42:13 PM

I'm thinking Teddy will be a huge bust. He's not even on the cam newton level, yet he's hyped like luck.

Naismith was right about Revis. Everyone else is a dummy.

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#52 : November 16, 2013, 09:10:07 PM

    We've had our share of first round franchise QB busts here in Tampa Bay. Freeman was just the latest. How about Trent Dilfer? And Testaverde was a bust here, although he developed into a respectable QB elsewhere. Then we traded the #1 pick for Jack Thompson, and a 2nd overall for Chris Chandler. There may be more...

I believe Chandler was in exchange for the 16th pick of the draft.
From Wiki:   19881996

Chandler was taken in the third round of the draft by the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts deemed Chandler expendable due to his poor play, and the fact that they selected Jeff George with the first overall choice in the 1990 draft. Chandler was traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1990 for a 1st round draft choice that turned out to be the 2nd overall pick (The Colts also had the 1st pick the same year. The pick that they got for Chandler they used on Quentin Coryatt). Chandler struggled, and was cut during the 1991 season. As a Buccaneer, he had an 0-6 record as a starter, threw for 5 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 44.9.[5]

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#53 : November 16, 2013, 10:12:23 PM

    We've had our share of first round franchise QB busts here in Tampa Bay. Freeman was just the latest. How about Trent Dilfer? And Testaverde was a bust here, although he developed into a respectable QB elsewhere. Then we traded the #1 pick for Jack Thompson, and a 2nd overall for Chris Chandler. There may be more...

I believe Chandler was in exchange for the 16th pick of the draft.
From Wiki:   19881996

Chandler was taken in the third round of the draft by the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts deemed Chandler expendable due to his poor play, and the fact that they selected Jeff George with the first overall choice in the 1990 draft. Chandler was traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1990 for a 1st round draft choice that turned out to be the 2nd overall pick (The Colts also had the 1st pick the same year. The pick that they got for Chandler they used on Quentin Coryatt). Chandler struggled, and was cut during the 1991 season. As a Buccaneer, he had an 0-6 record as a starter, threw for 5 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 44.9.[5]

Steve Emtman and Quentin Coryatt taken back to back.  that looked like two can't miss guys.  I remember the highlights from Coryatt and he looked like one bad dude, including one hit where he knocked the guy out cold.  Neither became the player they were expected to be.  Only time I can remember one and two going to the same team.

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#54 : November 16, 2013, 10:24:23 PM

The draft is a crapshoot.

You could go through draft, thinking, "I'm going to one-up everyone, because history says the second guy to go has better odds."

Or, you could think, "throw the whole draft at some team for the number one, and get a playmaker."

Me? I want to draft the best player I see with my own two eyes, be damned what others think he should be placed. Bring in the "good good" (as snoop would say), and toss out the "so-so." Not only does my position on this consider the qb, but the whole team and staff. If you don't produce, you go buh-bye.

We have to stop doing things the same way. How long have we been out of playoffs now? Since Garcia? Seriously, this team needs to grow a pair, especially the ManU brothers. Go get the best damn offensive coach you can find and trade/spend/wth ever, but bring him in. After that, get the best qb statistically in manziel and place him in a fast paced offense. Seems so obvious to me, but hey, opinions are like a holes.

Naismith was right about Revis. Everyone else is a dummy.

jerseybucsfan

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#55 : November 16, 2013, 10:29:56 PM

Again, it depends on your definition. He wastes their time so he is a bust. Terrible? No. Just outside the top third of QBs. Dangerous place  to be.

I don't necessarily agree with this.

In 2011 he completed 53.5% of his passes and had a 70.5 passer rating
In 2012 he completed 59.5% of his passes and had a 82.6 passer rating
In 2013 he completed 60.7% of his passes and had a 90.9 passer rating

He's getting better every year and there's zero consistency in his weapons.
You conveniently left out the 60.0 percent passing in his rookie year, so that the second number would represent a regression. You also leave out the fact that in two of those three years he only played about a half season because of injuries, being fragile being one of the top criticisms of him. En route to a fourth consecutive losing season.

LOL, yeah, because absolutely no QB ever had a "sophomore slump", right?  Please.
His ypa went down from his third year to his fourth. His sack totals have been consistently high. And the team's best win this year came with him on the bench.

Woah, a whole whopping 0.28 ypa drop!  You know what, cut him.  You're right.  I mean, it's not like he lost his best target and got 2 rookies instead.

Cutler, Romo, Flacco, and Rivers were all sacked more each year.  What's that prove?  I don't watch all his games, so I don't know if it's a Bradford issue or a O-Line issue, but it's not like he's being sacked an absurd number of times.

You need some really long arms if you're reaching for that last one.

Like I said, he's not a lock, but I don't think he's a bust.  I certainly don't think they wasted time on him.  I'd definitely give him 1 more season to see what's what.
Four losing seasons aren't enough? Chance to win the NFC West as a rookie. He got outplayed by Charlie Whitehurst. In four seasons with Bradford, the team hasn't finished higher than 25th in the league in yardage. Meanwhile the team's defense has been consistently average or better. They are carrying him, not the reverse. Awful? No. He doesn't throw picks. But he also doesn't score. He's just ineffective enough to keep them from being a good team.

In Verner We Trust

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#56 : November 16, 2013, 10:34:25 PM

I'm thinking Teddy will be a huge bust. He's not even on the cam newton level, yet he's hyped like luck.

I have yet to hear a valid reason why Teddy is going to be a bust. Its been a whole bunch of i just don't think he's going to be good. It's starting to become comical with the Manziel fan boys. PLEASE tell me what there is not to like about Bridgewater's game, he doesn't really have any flaws. The guy is going to be a very very good NFL QB.


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#57 : November 16, 2013, 10:41:26 PM

I'm thinking Teddy will be a huge bust. He's not even on the cam newton level, yet he's hyped like luck.

I have yet to hear a valid reason why Teddy is going to be a bust. Its been a whole bunch of i just don't think he's going to be good. It's starting to become comical with the Manziel fan boys. PLEASE tell me what there is not to like about Bridgewater's game, he doesn't really have any flaws. The guy is going to be a very very good NFL QB.
Lol

They are getting comical indeed.

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#58 : November 16, 2013, 10:48:23 PM

I'm thinking Teddy will be a huge bust. He's not even on the cam newton level, yet he's hyped like luck.

I have yet to hear a valid reason why Teddy is going to be a bust. Its been a whole bunch of i just don't think he's going to be good. It's starting to become comical with the Manziel fan boys. PLEASE tell me what there is not to like about Bridgewater's game, he doesn't really have any flaws. The guy is going to be a very very good NFL QB.

I've given plenty of reasons plenty of times, and you can ask plenty of folks here why I believe it's possible. Tired of going over it again and again.

While you, and others, may disagree with me (as it has happened plenty of times in the past), I could see TB failing out. Actually, all the qb's in this draft have that ability, but that's the chance every team takes. In that respect, I say go with the guy who has the numbers if you have to take a leap of faith. The only guy who was a lock to be successful in the last few years was luck, and I don't believe Teddy is as talented as he is. Heck, he doesn't even have Cam's talent. He may look good at times, but mentally he's not the guy to go win a Superbowl, and that's the name of the game.

Naismith was right about Revis. Everyone else is a dummy.

fanofkit

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#59 : November 16, 2013, 11:09:49 PM

I'm thinking Teddy will be a huge bust. He's not even on the cam newton level, yet he's hyped like luck.

I have yet to hear a valid reason why Teddy is going to be a bust. Its been a whole bunch of i just don't think he's going to be good. It's starting to become comical with the Manziel fan boys. PLEASE tell me what there is not to like about Bridgewater's game, he doesn't really have any flaws. The guy is going to be a very very good NFL QB.

I've given plenty of reasons plenty of times, and you can ask plenty of folks here why I believe it's possible. Tired of going over it again and again.

While you, and others, may disagree with me (as it has happened plenty of times in the past), I could see TB failing out. Actually, all the qb's in this draft have that ability, but that's the chance every team takes. In that respect, I say go with the guy who has the numbers if you have to take a leap of faith. The only guy who was a lock to be successful in the last few years was luck, and I don't believe Teddy is as talented as he is. Heck, he doesn't even have Cam's talent. He may look good at times, but mentally he's not the guy to go win a Superbowl, and that's the name of the game.

Of the bunch, I like Teddy the best.  However, I don't see a truly elite prospect in any of them- at least not to the level I would consider a "can't miss".

My fear is being driven into the corner of the " we must draft a QB " mindset.  Unless you are truly sold that a QB is the man, I am very afraid of picking one so high, because you weld your fate to that pick.  Few teams or coaches are willing to pull the trigger on benching or trading a highly picked QB until it is too late.  Freeman is the perfect example. 
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