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Boid Fink

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: March 27, 2007, 11:44:57 AM

So the 'rock star' thing is a reason to keep him? Love him? I don't get it.
That was more of a tongue in cheek remark, laughing at the media for the way they portray him.

If you read the next line in my post, I said he is a good coach, with consistency probs (that can be attributed to many things aside from bad coaching),


whobdis

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#1 : March 27, 2007, 11:39:16 AM

Maybe Russell has the leadership abilities but there has been a number of questions about his commitment to
the sport. Frankly I've never understood a guy showing up out of shape to the combines. If there is any
single point in your life that you want to be in the best shape of your life that is it. Millions are on the line.
And if you can't seem commit yourself for that relatively short period one wonders how well you'll do in
the long haul. I just don't see Gruden overlooking that.

cheveliar

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#2 : March 27, 2007, 11:35:03 AM

If there is even a 25% chance that he will be a franchise QB, then it is worth taking him. QB is the most important position in the NFL and JR is the premier prospect this year.

25% chance on a number 1 draft pick?  You can keep those odds...I want a sure thing in round one...I want little to no questions that this guy will come in, start, and produce from day 1...Russell, IMO, does not fit that bill...

Without Carl Nix it feels like our running game just took a death blow to the face!


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#3 : March 27, 2007, 11:31:21 AM

If there is even a 25% chance that he will be a franchise QB, then it is worth taking him. QB is the most important position in the NFL and JR is the premier prospect this year.

alldaway

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#4 : March 27, 2007, 10:09:02 AM

Russell shows leadership ability which is something that can not be measured and he has the will to carry a team to a win.  That to me defines a franchise QB...kind of like how Brady/Manning have been able to carry their teams despite hitting lots of bumps on the road.

In all seriousness (Yes I am a Gaines fan and I like Anderson, Carricker, Okoye as well) if Russell is there at #4 I say you pull the trigger.



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#5 : March 27, 2007, 09:56:31 AM

Year 2 is when they reach a approximation of their future level of effectiveness, year 4 is really the year you see who a guy is.

There's also this: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2005/01/19/ramblings/stat-analysis/2262/ which deals with the whole "play him as a rookie or let him sit" question. Short answer is playing rookie doesn't help their development.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.
If you think Manziel is the best QB in this draft I can safely assume you are an idiot and will treat you as such.

Mellow

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#6 : March 27, 2007, 09:41:50 AM

dalbuc, thanks, great reference.  While I agree that year 5 might be a bit extreme . . . it's not year 2 either.   The QB rating graph looks like guys start hitting their stride in year 4, and really aren't very effective their first two years (although, as you say, they usually do improve dramatically after year 1).   Going back and looking at stats for these guys it's apparent that many didn't even start until their third year, so the stats in years 1 and 2 are really distorted by low numbers.


dalbuc

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#7 : March 27, 2007, 09:17:43 AM

The question is how far 'down the road'.  I'm thinking with Russell you're probably talking 5 years before he's a capable NFL QB

5 years? When you  talk about QB Development what you see is that rookie year is awful and year #2 they take a huge leap and then slowly develop until year 4 where they are about who they are for their career.

See here: http://www.bostonsportsmedia.com/archives/gameday/testing_bill_simmons_theory_on_running_qbs.php

If he's any good he should be effective in year #2 of his career.


All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.
If you think Manziel is the best QB in this draft I can safely assume you are an idiot and will treat you as such.

cheveliar

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#8 : March 27, 2007, 09:04:19 AM

If he's there at 4 we leave him for 5... [banghead]

Without Carl Nix it feels like our running game just took a death blow to the face!


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#9 : March 27, 2007, 08:58:59 AM

The question is how far 'down the road'.  I'm thinking with Russell you're probably talking 5 years before he's a capable NFL QB, and until then you will have a big chunk of your salary cap tied up in a prospect that may end up a total bust.  IMO (not widely held, I admit) it's too risky to take ANY QB in R1 and this is especially true for Russell.  With Quinn you might have an argument that he's 'NFL-ready', but not with Russell.

The problem with Russell is that he's all about physical tools.  Awesome physical tools, to be sure, but the NFL scrapheap is littered with QBs with great physical tools who couldn't cut it.  Based on physical ability alone you'd take Jeff George over Joe Montana, Kyle Boller over Tom Brady, and Michael Vick over Peyton Manning.  As always, the problem with QBs is predicting how they'll translate to the next level mentally and IMO that's just too hard to do to gamble with the #4 pick in the entire draft.

Like I said, I'm aware my opinion isn't widely held.  But I'm sticking with it nonetheless!

dalbuc

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#10 : March 27, 2007, 08:50:18 AM


I know some posters have stated that Gruden is not thinking his job is in jeopardy, that he will draft and sign like he is going to be here, but I can't see it.  I love Gruden, the man is a rock star!  He is a great coach as well.  His performance has been off-on for his tenure in TB, and he needs to consistently keep them in the hunt.  But it all matters this season, not down the road.

This season isn't gonna be "the" season so all that matters is really down the road. I think Gruden likely does draft to save his skin this year- albeit not many rookies will- and if we passed on Russell at #4 for anyone else you'd know he wasn't thinking long-term.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.
If you think Manziel is the best QB in this draft I can safely assume you are an idiot and will treat you as such.

karen anderson

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#11 : March 27, 2007, 01:51:32 AM

So the 'rock star' thing is a reason to keep him? Love him? I don't get it.

Boid Fink

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#12 : March 27, 2007, 01:01:03 AM

Well, if we could care less what happens with the current coaching staff (Gruden mainly), and assume that he is not in a "go-for-broke" mentality, then I am all for it.  Draft Russell, and maybe you have the franchise QB we all will appreciate wether Gruden is here or not.

But I have a sneaking feeling that Gruden wants to keep his job in that awesome new facility, in that awesome stadium, and to increase his legacy in Tampa.  He gave Tampa a Lombardi to worship, and in order for him to keep his job, he needs immediate gratification.  And drafting a rookie QB with your #1 is not the way to go.  Russell is not coming in and landing a starting job, he will ride pine behind a slew of other QBs who will know the complexity of the offense, and teach him as well.  But he will ride pine nonetheless given the QB depth right now, and he will not help Gruden keep his job which is desperately based on his performance this upcoming year.

I know some posters have stated that Gruden is not thinking his job is in jeopardy, that he will draft and sign like he is going to be here, but I can't see it.  I love Gruden, the man is a rock star!  He is a great coach as well.  His performance has been off-on for his tenure in TB, and he needs to consistently keep them in the hunt.  But it all matters this season, not down the road.

I would love to see Russell drafted, but I also hope Gruden would be able to stick around for a while in order to cash in on his abilities.  If not, I guess the Bucs drafted a guy who might be the cornerstone for the future coach, whoever that may be.


Tebowmania 25

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#13 : March 26, 2007, 10:16:26 PM

HELL NO!!!!

bucs1

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#14 : March 26, 2007, 10:01:32 PM

If Russell is there and we pick him, what QB on our roster would you want to trade?  I would probally want to trade Simms so then our final QB roster would be Garcia, Russell, Gradkowski.  By the way, would Russell even be a good fit for our offense.
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