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: October 25, 2006, 11:10:33 AM

So many people not satisfied with Bruce.  Some of us defending him say "he's just a rookie, give him time".  That is the appropriate way to look at it IMO...but taking a look at his stats, it's interesting if you look at them for a somewhat different perspective.  Just how is he comparing?

4:1 TD int ratio.  Only 4 QB's have a better ration (Peyton, Bulger,Batch, Huard)

To find the first QB to throw More TD's than Bruce, you have to go to Big Ben, who Threw 5 in 5 games (along with 7 picks).  After that no QB threw more than 4 until 6 games... (Note, anomoly, Batch had 5 in 3 out of 39 attempts, count him if you want)

Compared to the QB's that started 6 games (or 7)  How does his TD count rank? (extrapolate, 4 in 3 = 8 in 6) Only 13 QB's have thrown 8 or more. 
His ratio compared to them? Of those 13, only 3 have a better TD to INT ratio(Huard, Peyton & Bulger)

His completion percent is 56.1  Who does that compare to?
Brady 56.1
Simms 54.7
McNabb 59.3
LOL Greise 100.0

His QB Rating? Lots of remarks about how low it is 78.1  So who else is in that neighborhood?
Johnson: 80.7
Leftwich:79.0
Rothlesberger:74.5
Leinart:71.4
Hasselbeck:82.8
Brady: 86.9 (solidly better but here for perspective)

Statistics are rough when you don't have a large sample base, but if you're judging his performance based on completion%, ratting, ratio, or #TDs, he's not just doing pretty well for a rookie, overall he's doing about average or better for an NFL QB.  We'll see more in the future, and we'll get a better idea if these are flukes or trends, but with the limited info we have, there's not much reason to be negative...


keeponbucn

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#1 : October 25, 2006, 11:14:53 AM

The TD/Int ratio is the biggest reason for the Bucs success over the past two games. It keeps them in the ball game, Simms would just kill the defense early in the ball game. This offense, like many in the NFL, isn't built around coming back from two scores.

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#2 : October 25, 2006, 11:18:17 AM

So many people not satisfied with Bruce.  Some of us defending him say "he's just a rookie, give him time".  That is the appropriate way to look at it IMO...but taking a look at his stats, it's interesting if you look at them for a somewhat different perspective.  Just how is he comparing?

4:1 TD int ratio.  Only 4 QB's have a better ration (Peyton, Bulger,Batch, Huard)

To find the first QB to throw More TD's than Bruce, you have to go to Big Ben, who Threw 5 in 5 games (along with 7 picks).  After that no QB threw more than 4 until 6 games... (Note, anomoly, Batch had 5 in 3 out of 39 attempts, count him if you want)

Compared to the QB's that started 6 games (or 7)  How does his TD count rank? (extrapolate, 4 in 3 = 8 in 6) Only 13 QB's have thrown 8 or more. 
His ratio compared to them? Of those 13, only 3 have a better TD to INT ratio(Huard, Peyton & Bulger)

His completion percent is 56.1  Who does that compare to?
Brady 56.1
Simms 54.7
McNabb 59.3
LOL Greise 100.0

His QB Rating? Lots of remarks about how low it is 78.1  So who else is in that neighborhood?
Johnson: 80.7
Leftwich:79.0
Rothlesberger:74.5
Leinart:71.4
Hasselbeck:82.8
Brady: 86.9 (solidly better but here for perspective)

Statistics are rough when you don't have a large sample base, but if you're judging his performance based on completion%, ratting, ratio, or #TDs, he's not just doing pretty well for a rookie, overall he's doing about average or better for an NFL QB.  We'll see more in the future, and we'll get a better idea if these are flukes or trends, but with the limited info we have, there's not much reason to be negative...



Nice post.  ;)


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#3 : October 25, 2006, 11:22:35 AM

Good post...I watched NFL Replay last night and felt even better about his performance after watching it a second time...I think his numbers will just get better when he starts getting more comfortable with the offense...I heard an analyst mention something about rookie quarterbacks the other day and it was to remember that often the plays they are executing in the game are the first time they have ever used that particular play or sometimes even formation...Experienced quarterbacks have a huge edge in that regard...

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#4 : October 25, 2006, 11:28:16 AM

Aw c'mon guys, although the TD:INT ration is good for a rookie after his first 3 games and is encouraging,  it really is meaningless at this stage. Why don't we just see how he goes and then take a look after 6-8 games? Then the stats will be balanced.

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#5 : October 25, 2006, 11:28:46 AM

Good post...I watched NFL Replay last night and felt even better about his performance after watching it a second time.

I have only seen the last drive on replay, but he made a couple of key passes and a good 9 yard scramble on that drive.  All in all it was a very quiet day for Grads but he didn't turn the ball over, which was enough to keep us in it.  

The Giants will give him a new set of challenges and I expect him to struggle again this week.  When you look at the remaiming schedule it is a brutal beginning for a rookie QB.  If he can come through this season with a handful of wins and his confidence in tact I think he will be just fine next season.


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#6 : October 25, 2006, 11:31:45 AM

Aw c'mon guys, although the TD:INT ration is good for a rookie after his first 3 games and is encouraging,  it really is meaningless at this stage. Why don't we just see how he goes and then take a look after 6-8 games? Then the stats will be balanced.

I agree it is way to early to get a true picture and make any longterm predictions.  He needs at least 15 games and more than a year in the system before we will get a good idea if he is the answer at QB.


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#7 : October 25, 2006, 11:41:49 AM


The Giants will give him a new set of challenges and I expect him to struggle again this week.  When you look at the remaiming schedule it is a brutal beginning for a rookie QB.  If he can come through this season with a handful of wins and his confidence in tact I think he will be just fine next season.

True and if I was to be 100% honest, if we can get through this season and Grad keeps his INT very low it is a good sign (or he is very lucky lololo). That would indicate his decision making process is sound and he is not trying to force it. That is the best starting point for him and the most important stat to keep an eye on IMO.


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#8 : October 25, 2006, 11:45:31 AM

The Giants will give him a new set of challenges and I expect him to struggle again this week.  When you look at the remaiming schedule it is a brutal beginning for a rookie QB.  If he can come through this season with a handful of wins and his confidence in tact I think he will be just fine next season.


agree 100% but not sure if he'll struggle like last week. I think Gurden had a big hand in his struggles last Sunday because of his play-calling. Grudne can affect Grads by being too conservative making Grads think more conservative. I agree with how the game was called last week but felt Gruden was too protective in that regard.

If Gruden sees an area to exploit he'll open it up a little more this week. He was scared to death against the Eagles pass rush.



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#9 : October 25, 2006, 11:49:45 AM

Not that I disagree.  I think that Grads is doing a serviceable job, ESPECIALLY for a rookie.

We do need to get more out of the QB position, though.  He need to make more throws downfield.  Not necessarily deep throws, but just get it more than 10 yards downfield occasionally.  He made a couple of plays against the Eagles, but we need more.

He's certainly earning more time as the starter, though.  We just need another step forward, now.

mjs020294

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#10 : October 25, 2006, 12:09:51 PM

He's certainly earning more time as the starter, though.  We just need another step forward, now.

The starting QB learning curve is probably about three years, and most QBs spend a year or two holding a clip board first.  To expect a rookie to "step forward now" is unreasonable IMO.  He needs to keep it simple and learn to play at this level. 



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#11 : October 25, 2006, 12:14:23 PM

And win games like he's doing while learning his trade

                \'Every day above ground is a good day\'

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#12 : October 25, 2006, 12:18:12 PM

Even more food for thought and perspective for those who are eager to diss Gradkowski. This comes from http://www.buccaneers.com/matchup/matchupmain.aspx

“In only his third year in the league, New York Giants QB Eli Manning is showing rapid maturation behind center while leading his team to first place in the NFC East. Most striking about Manning’s improvement this season has been his much improved completion percentage. Through six games, the former number one overall pick of the 2004 NFL Draft has completed 62.9 percent of his passes. A breakdown of Manning’s numbers reveals he can beat a team underneath or over the top. This season, Manning is completing passes of 10 yards or less at a whopping 70 percent as compared to the 59 percent mark he posted last year. His accuracy has improved another 10 percent for intermediate passes of 11-20 yards, but his biggest increase has come with the deep throw. When throwing passes of 21 yards or more, Manning is finding his target 59 percent of the time. That’s 30 percent greater than his 2005 completion percentage for the same throws.”

Learning to quarterback in the NFL is not an overnight process. Even Eli didn’t take the reins as quickly as Gradkowski. Gradkowski has three starts. Manning has three years. You can’t expect Grad to play like these guys who have been in the NFL for years. And, while not a rocket, his arm is plenty good enough to make the throws. Cut the kid some slack. He is going to be a good one for a long time.


I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth. --Umberto Eco

OpTiOnMaStA

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#13 : October 25, 2006, 12:59:51 PM

I don't even understand where this sentiment to jump all over him comes from.

He won 2/3 games he started in. Isn't that, and the fact that he didn't LOSE the game for us enough?

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#14 : October 25, 2006, 01:03:26 PM

I was watching replay last night as well.  On a few individual plays, I saw Bruce's head swivel looking for receivers more than I saw Simms head move all season!  To me that's a good indicator of where his mind is at.  The game surely is moving fast for him, but he isn't panicking.

Also he moves around a lot buying time while he searches.  He's got good pocket awareness while still going through his reads for the play.  

I think he's mentally very far ahead of many rookies at this stage, we just need to get some accuracy from him, which is supposedly his trademark, and everything will be peachy.
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