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Bucs33

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: January 03, 2007, 10:48:51 AM

See this is what I don't like.  I am not saying gru for certain should be fired now but...  What if Gruden goes 9-7 next year and makes the playoffs, and gets bounced in the first round, then goes like 5-11 in 2008, does he get another year to get everything together?  We could be talking then like January of 2010 until he goes...

Will medicority allow Gruden to keep his job for at least 2 more years?   

Let's face it 2005's 11-5 season is what is allowing gruden to keep his job for now.  And that was a very luckly 2005 to boot, 2 easy wins over a depleated saints team, a VERY lucky win on x-mas eve 2005 against Atlanta, a last second culpepper int saved the 2005 opener, ryan longwell missed an extra point in Green bay as the 4-12 packers loss by 1 point, the Bucs needed a last second instant reply to beat detroit, Alstott's contoversial 2 point conversion against Washington was what the Bucs needed to win,  Christ the 4-12 Jets and 49ers both beat the 2005 Bucs...

Shag

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#1 : January 03, 2007, 10:59:02 AM

He gets one more year from me, and with not much more than he has now because I want the defense rebuilt. He has picked enough players on this offense to do something with. He has used first day picks on QB, OT, OG, RB, WR, and TE. If he can't get something out of his own players by next year, we need to find somebody who can do a better job.

fessy

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#2 : January 03, 2007, 11:04:23 AM

hopefully he is here for 20 years or more.  If so then that means he is successful.  Let's face it, his hands HAVE been cuffed with many factors.

I would like to have a legendary coach and Gruden is young enough to make that happen. 

Boid Fink

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#3 : January 03, 2007, 11:07:22 AM

If Gruden goes 9 and 7, and lands a playoff berth, I would expect more consistency from his record, because he will have a firmer ground to stand on in terms of his players.   So if there is a big dropoff from next year to the year after, then yes, I would want him to go.

Consistency has to be thy name.


dalbuc

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#4 : January 03, 2007, 11:12:06 AM

See this is what I don't like.  I am not saying gru for certain should be fired now but...  What if Gruden goes 9-7 next year and makes the playoffs, and gets bounced in the first round, then goes like 5-11 in 2008, does he get another year to get everything together?  We could be talking then like January of 2010 until he goes...

WEll the easier question is what if he goes 7-9? That is "significant" progress over this year but once you bottom out so completely everything looks better so saying "make progress" really fails to be justice to the question.

Serious points of evaluation:

1. Simms. They have picked him 3 times now to lead this offense. They think he's a QB and how he plays and develops as more than a bus driver type will be huge in any evaluations. QB is always the most important decision a coach makes and so this looms large especially since this is Gruden's area of core competence.

2. Offensive Effectiveness. Hand in hand with this above but also tied to the ground game. Gruden is responsible for the offense titles be darned. The offense is an anchor for this team and has been for his tenure. This unit has to get to be at least average - "improving" to 21st isn't enough.

3. Player Development. Clayton was an R1 pick, he needs to get better. Davin has to show why he was one of the rare R1 OG's in this league. That means not merely being Dan Buenning from last year but a top-end OG. Trueblood has to develop. Caddy has to show some growth in his game. Plus you have other day 1 picks like Ruud and Stoval and Smith that also need to show growth. In all this you want tangible signs (stats and production).

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

stereochemistry

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#5 : January 03, 2007, 11:20:46 AM


Let's face it 2005's 11-5 season is what is allowing gruden to keep his job for now. And that was a very luckly 2005 to boot, 2 easy wins over a depleated saints team, a VERY lucky win on x-mas eve 2005 against Atlanta, a last second culpepper int saved the 2005 opener, ryan longwell missed an extra point in Green bay as the 4-12 packers loss by 1 point, the Bucs needed a last second instant reply to beat detroit, Alstott's contoversial 2 point conversion against Washington was what the Bucs needed to win, Christ the 4-12 Jets and 49ers both beat the 2005 Bucs...

As Dal would say, you shouldn't make "excuses" for how a record turns out.  There are no excuses for why the Bucs went 4-12 this year, just as their aren't excuses for why the Bucs were able to go 11-5 last year.  Otherwise every team could change one play a game and everyone could end up 8-8

dalbuc

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#6 : January 03, 2007, 11:23:46 AM

As Dal would say, you shouldn't make "excuses" for how a record turns out.  There are no excuses for why the Bucs went 4-12 this year, just as their aren't excuses for why the Bucs were able to go 11-5 last year.  Otherwise every team could change one play a game and everyone could end up 8-8

Yes, I would say that.

What people forget is that most games in the NFL aren't double digit losses - well I mean they were for us this year but for most teams they aren't.

Every team has a few plays that could radically change their outcome because most games really are quite close. You can't pick n' choose how to make a team not 11-5 or not 4-12. The record is the record.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.

Pick6

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#7 : January 03, 2007, 11:34:29 AM

2005 helped his juob security, but the reason he still has a job is because he and the glazers have very frank discussions about the state of the team. i doubt he sat down with them this year and said "we're gonna repeat as NFC South Champs and be Superbowl contenders!"

they probably sat down and talked about the fact that 3 already good division rivals who played us very close reloaded with drew brees, john abraham, keyshawn johnson and several other free agents while we had to sit on our hands and pray for guys like david boston and toniu fonoti to make rain. he probably said, "we'll do our best, but until we can keep up with the joneses i can't say we're gonna be better than we were in 2005."

this year the discussion will be that he has everything a coach can ask for to improve his team, and he'd better make it happen.  in 2008, if he has a good enough season to stick around, the talk will absolutely be about being a team with a very real superbowl window, and his success in '07 or earlier will probably not be enough to save him if the bucs go 8-8 or worse.

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#8 : January 03, 2007, 11:52:04 AM


this year the discussion will be that he has everything a coach can ask for to improve his team, and he'd better make it happen. in 2008, if he has a good enough season to stick around, the talk will absolutely be about being a team with a very real superbowl window, and his success in '07 or earlier will probably not be enough to save him if the bucs go 8-8 or worse.
I would caveat your statement with "if we get the players we are after" then things will be different.  I'm sure they will target players like Garcia, Freeney, Clements, Briggs, etc but if they decide to go elsewhere then their plans are for naught.

Truths:
1.  Never have an argument with an idiot.  They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with their experience.
2.  For some it would be better if they remained silent and be thought a fool than to speak and erase all doubt.

acacius

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#9 : January 03, 2007, 11:58:38 AM

Personally, I'm *very* leary about trying to come up with a specific record that the team needs to reach for Gruden to keep his job.  I can easily see a 9-7 team that'd make me feel that Gruden's job should be secure for years to come and another 9-7 team that would make me jump on the "it's [past] time to move on" bandwagon.  An awful lot is going to depend on how the team is winning or losing.



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#10 : January 03, 2007, 11:59:14 AM

If Gruden goes 9 and 7, and lands a playoff berth, I would expect more consistency from his record, because he will have a firmer ground to stand on in terms of his players. So if there is a big dropoff from next year to the year after, then yes, I would want him to go.

Consistency has to be thy name.
As RJ says, thread over.

Rusty

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#11 : January 03, 2007, 12:06:54 PM

Everyone is assuming that the Glazers are sitting behind a desk with their finger on the eject button. Only they know what their criteria is for success. I do know that they are businessmen. Wins and losses are surely high on the list of critical success factors but you have to factor in, at what cost. Winning the Super Bowl cost the Glazers a lot, e.g. cash($8 million), draft picks for Gruden, Keyshawn, Walker and an extended stay in cap hell. While the fans lust for 35-0 wins every Sunday, my uninformed guess is the Glazers actually like where they sit going forward. In their mind, they have Allen/Gruden/Kiffen, arguably three of the best in the business, lots of cap room ($30 to $40 million depending on off season trades/retirements/cuts) all of their draft picks and then some, an allegedly easier schedule in an apparent weak division and a rabid fan base. Surely, if the Bucs continue cranking out 4-12 seasons going forward, the wheels are off the bus and this staff will have to go, but all signs point to 2007 as the year the Bucs begin the quest to the Super Bowl in a fiscally & operationally sound fashion.

                \'Every day above ground is a good day\'

4bucs

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#12 : January 03, 2007, 12:22:33 PM

rusty I couldn't have said it better,good post.

redtab78

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#13 : January 03, 2007, 12:25:53 PM

Everyone is assuming that the Glazers are sitting behind a desk with their finger on the eject button. Only they know what their criteria is for success. I do know that they are businessmen. Wins and losses are surely high on the list of critical success factors but you have to factor in, at what cost. Winning the Super Bowl cost the Glazers a lot, e.g. cash($8 million), draft picks for Gruden, Keyshawn, Walker and an extended stay in cap hell. While the fans lust for 35-0 wins every Sunday, my uninformed guess is the Glazers actually like where they sit going forward. In their mind, they have Allen/Gruden/Kiffen, arguably three of the best in the business, lots of cap room ($30 to $40 million depending on off season trades/retirements/cuts) all of their draft picks and then some, an allegedly easier schedule in an apparent weak division and a rabid fan base. Surely, if the Bucs continue cranking out 4-12 seasons going forward, the wheels are off the bus and this staff will have to go, but all signs point to 2007 as the year the Bucs begin the quest to the Super Bowl in a fiscally & operationally sound fashion.

I sure hope your right...



Anyone who thinks Tim Tebow will be a great NFL QB is an idiot.






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#14 : January 03, 2007, 01:43:06 PM

I would say that he's supposedly building a base here that will be good for years to come. 

Supposedly.

So, if he has a good year, then another bad one, I think that he's gone.
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