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dalbuc

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: February 19, 2007, 10:38:10 AM

This is looking at how QB's are affected by and affect the playoffs.  found this interesting in relation to the whole "you don't need a QB to win" stuff that gets tossed about talking about the QB draft. This is from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/ which is always filled with really interesting things.

Expected QBR and AY/A statistics by round (based on regular season efforts)

w   83.1   6.20
d   83.5   6.28
c   85.9   6.55
s   89.3   6.84

W, D, C and S stand for the Wildcard, Divisional, Conference Championship and Super Bowl rounds. As you can tell, the numbers increase slightly as we move to the later rounds, which is about what we’d expect. Generally the best regular season QBs move on to the later rounds, so we’d expect better QB Ratings and AY/A there. But of course, this assumes that defenses (and everything else) remains constant in the post-season, which we know it does not. So what actually happened in the four playoff rounds?

w 79.1   5.78
d 71.4   5.27
c 70.0   5.08
s 76.2   5.68

There have been a few standout performances in the Super Bowl, but in general we’ve seen actual performance go down as we move further into the playoffs. The conference championship round in particular has been rough for QBs, which may reflect that many of those are played in cold weather stadiums, whereas Super Bowl XLI was the first one with suboptimal conditions.

But by far the most significant result comes when looking at win/loss splits. Sure, we should expect winning QBs to have high QB ratings and losing QBs to have low QB ratings, but the split is enormous. Based on the specific QBs that won a playoff game, we’d expect an 86.6 QBR and 6.58 AY/A. They actually had a 92.9 QBR and averaged 7.17 AY/A.

Losing QBs would be expected to have, based on their regular season numbers, an 82.8 QBR and averaged 6.21 AY/A. In reality? A 58.4 QBR and an ugly 4.01 AY/A.

It’s unclear which is the chicken (losing) and which is the egg (low QB Rating) but there’s certainly a very high correlation.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.
If you think Manziel is the best QB in this draft I can safely assume you are an idiot and will treat you as such.

psymun

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#1 : February 19, 2007, 11:18:09 AM

It's because of the pressure and the fact that it becomes even more of a TEAM game when it's bigger games against better teams...


keeponbucn

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#2 : February 19, 2007, 11:19:44 AM

I don't think it's a chicken and egg type of discussion simply because you can correlate low QB rating and AY/A to losing. It's not 100% but pretty damn close. The playoffs really do seperate the good QB's. Manning's drop off in QBR and AY/A isn't near the drop-off of Grossman or a good QB vs an average one.

I wonder how they come up with the expected QBR and AY/A, do you know?


then again I guess you correlate a chicken with an egg and vice versa.

dalbuc

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#3 : February 19, 2007, 11:27:59 AM


I wonder how they come up with the expected QBR and AY/A, do you know?


The used the regular season figures for the QB's as the "expected". There's a lot more of the article I just cut out the gets of it.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.
If you think Manziel is the best QB in this draft I can safely assume you are an idiot and will treat you as such.

keeponbucn

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#4 : February 19, 2007, 11:35:21 AM

The used the regular season figures for the QB's as the "expected". There's a lot more of the article I just cut out the gets of it.

Ahh, I'm an idiot for not thinking that.

Tough to have expected numbers for the playoff rounds and SB based on the regular season since historically it's always much tougher.


dalbuc

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#5 : February 19, 2007, 11:39:12 AM

Tough to have expected numbers for the playoff rounds and SB based on the regular season since historically it's always much tougher.

Well and a lot of that is the point, it does get tougher and you see that come through.

I thought the most interesting bit was the disparity between the winning QB and the losing QB's QBR's in those games. When it gets tougher it appears to get a LOT tougher on the weaker sister QB's.

All posts are opinions in case you are too stupid to figure that out on your own without me saying it over and over.
If you think Manziel is the best QB in this draft I can safely assume you are an idiot and will treat you as such.
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