Reply To: 2019 1st Round Pick Prospects Review


The only comment I have about the above is a couple of things (which I’ve expressed in a few places, including a pretty significant breakdown in the 2nd round thread):

1) I’d be very cautious about being drawn into the zeitgeist of a singular rep (such as everyone flipping out about the NCAA Championship Pass Set where Jonas Williams got Turf Snipered and fell back in the middle of a kickslide as Ferrell went through him for a big Pressure…suddenly Williams stock drops and Ferrells grows? Not in a world that is rigorous.) or a practice session or a drill that has very little applicability to actual football (more on that below).

2) 1v1 Pass Rush is not a football drill that translates well to actual football. (a) DL don’t have a line call that they’re responsible for (so they don’t have to first read a key and make sure they have their gap(s) integrity taken care of), (b) DL have a 3-way-go (through the OL or left or right), and (c) instead of the space to rush being finite, they have (for all intents and purposes) unlimited space by comparison to an actual game rep. Just the lack of a burden of mental processing alone (due to extra-rush responsibility; keys, gap, etc) is a HUGE advantage for DL. It doesn’t resemble actual football.

What it does show is (i) does x DL player have a pass rush suite/set of counters and (ii) how well does y OL player express proper fundamentals and/or play with leverage in a “set up to fail” situation? Now that is useful information to have…but its sort of like the old adage about models:

“All models are wrong, but some models are useful.”

1v1 Pass Rush is “wrong” (in that it isn’t football), but it has some (limited and context-based) use.

3) Deiter was fantastic in the game. By far the best out of the 5 relevant OL. He had be far the lowest number of negative plays and graded out by far the best (conversely, Lindstrom was the worst, next to Risner…but that doesn’t mean all the data of Lindstrom’s prior, great, play at BC should be dismisssed…that would just be an, incorrect, expression of temporal discounting bias).


So, anyhoo. Regardless, we need to address our OL with at least one player in this draft. Like I’ve said before, I expect DSmith to be tagged, Dotson to be cut, a FA RT or RG signed, and the other spot needs filled by an instant impact starter in the draft. Whether that is Ford, Deiter, or Lindstrom, I’m fine with it. But we need to draft by BPA and consider opportunity cost (right now and in subsequent rounds).

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