I’m not advocating anything at this point. But lets just do some speculation.
Let us say it takes 1, 2, 3 this year and 1, 2 next year.
5 picks for 1 QB (the most important position in all of sports) that may be the answer. There is a “may be” attached to each of those picks.
1) Those two mid-1sts have about a 45-50 % chance of not busting. Not great player ROI assurance, just not busting. Let us say, 1 of those 2 work out, and they’re actually a solid to + football player. Lets say a RT that plays for 2 contracts and is an asset, but not a huge difference-maker; an asset for 2 contracts.
2) As we certainly know, 2nd round pick volatility is high. We’re talking about something like a 65 % bust rate. There is a fair chance that one guy becomes a decent football player that is one contract and gone (or injury-prone and out) and the other guy busts out of the league.
3) 3rd round gets even more volatile. I want to say 1 in 4 of these guys (I can’t remember the exact math of the study done) turns out to be a productive football player. Let us say neither busts but both are long-tenured journeyman depth players who provide spot starter help/special teams.
So a very reasonable look at the return for those 5 picks are:
– Good football player who is an asset for 2 contracts, but not a difference-maker.
– Decent football player who is one contract and gone.
– 2 * depth and spot starters that round out the middle/bottom of the roster nicely for 4-7 years.
How do you feel about trading up for a potential difference-maker at the most important position in professional sports now?
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