I think the Bucs will take the ball if they win, and will probably get the ball even if they don’t win the toss. The odds are 53% that the team that defers wins the game. So consequently teams usually defer. Vegas lists the odds of the team deferring for the Superbowl at 73%. The last two Superbowls the team deferred, the 49ers and the Rams.
So either way there’s a very good chance the Bucs will get the ball. The only caveat is that if the Chiefs do their homework they will realize that the Bucs want the ball, so if the Chiefs win the toss they could take the ball just to screw with the Bucs’ plans.
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