Here is the gist of KC’s defense and gameplanning around it:
KC’s defense for gameplanning context:
1) Just north of average Defense (probably in the 14ish range) overall with EXTREME variation play-to-play but are SITUATIONALLY DEADLY.
2) Extremely poor in terms of Comparative Efficiency against the Run (55 %) and Poor in terms of Efficiency against the Pass (53 %)
3) Situation Efficiency:
a) EXTREMELY Inefficient against the Pass on 1st down. Balloons to 57%.
b) EXTREMELY Inefficient against the Run on 3rd and 3 or less. 78 %!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
c) Comparatively MUCH more Efficient against the Pass on 3rd and 3 or less. 43 %!
d) THE BEST 3RD AND 7+ DEFENSE IN THE NFL (way better than us, better than LAR, NO, Pitt, Mia, Wash, etc). And this is actually not even close.
4) Extremely poor RZ Efficiency Overall but trending MUCH better in the last 3 games.
5) Average 3rd Down Def.
6) Blitzes a TON w/ a lot of Coverage rotations/traps/robbers to try to generate negative plays (against both the pass and the run). Also plays a lot of Man Blitz. 3rd and Long they are ENORMOUSLY blitz-heavy (which is why they are the best in the league here).
a) # 10 in Turnovers
b) # 19 Sacks
c) # 6 Pressures
d) # 14 Stops (Tackles, including TFLs, that constitute a Play Loss for the Offense)
6) Because of all of the negative plays created, they’re north of Average in Points Per Drive given up.
So Gameplanning? What do we do.
* STAY OUT OF 3RD AND LONG.
* SUSTAIN DRIVES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THEIR POROUS RZ DEFENSE. WE DON’T NEED 50 YARD TDS. WE NEED SUSTAINED CHUNKS AND THEN GET 6 IN THE RZ.
* TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT INEFFICIENT 1ST DOWN DEFENSE WITH THE PASSING GAME. RUN A LOT OF PLAY-ACTION 6 AND 7 MAN PROTECTION TO PROTECT AGAINST THEIR BLITZ PROPENSITY (THEY’RE JUST TRYING TO GET TO 3RD AND LONG). RUN WIDE STACK SMOKE SCREENS (THESE WILL WIN AND WHEN WE CATCH THEM IN A DB OVERLOAD BLITZ IT COULD CREATE BIG PLAYS). WHEN YOU RUN, DON’T REDUCE THE FORMATION (LIKE WE OFTEN DO) BECAUSE THIS WILL ALLOW THEM TO RUN BLITZ AND CREATE NEGATIVE PLAYS (LIKE THEY LOVE TO). RUN FROM 11 PERSONNEL AND KEEP GODWIN OUT OF THE BOX (SHORT MOTION WILL REDUCE THE FORMATION AND WILL ALLOW THEIR DBS TO INSERT IN THE RUN GAME TO CREATE NEGATIVE PLAYS).
* 3RD AND 3 OR LESS IS A FREAKING GIMME IF YOU_JUST_RUN_THE_FOOTBALL. RUN THE BALL ON 3RD AND SHORT.
The difference between their 1st Down defense + 3rd and 3 or Less Defense and their 3rd and 7+ CANNOT BE OVERSTATED.
They’re probably the worst in the league in the former 2 (or right up there) and they’re the BEST on 3rd and 7+.
They’re about average on 3rd and Medium (like us).
Be efficient and chunky on 1st Down and protect with 6 and 7 in the Passing Game. 4-12 yards all day long. If we stay in 1st down and 3rd and Medium to Short…we’ll be fine. In fact, we should score 40 and win.
If we suck in 1st Down Offense in either Efficiency or First Down Rate…we almost surely lose this game.
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