Post count: 84

It is interesting about the “buzz around the league” that Mills could be a first rounder. What did Mike Maycock leave open a hot mike on a Zoom call? OK whatever.

As for the 2nd round – starting caliber QBs are going to go in the top 10 to 15 picks. You may get five 1st rounders and one 2nd rounder in most years. Its rare for a QB to be drafted in the 2nd round and those guys are borderline. Here are the most recent

Jalen Hurts, Drew Lock, DeShone Kizer, Christian Hackenburg, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garrapolo, Geno Smith, Brock Osweiler, Andy Dalton.

Denver’s bailing on Lock already. SF is bailing on Garropolo. I’m not sold on Hurts. Dalton started for a number of years but never won anything, not his fault being on the Bengals. Carr is still starting in Oakland, not terrible.

At 32 you aren’t getting Tom Brady, but you might be getting Andy Dalton. So my question to you is… would you have the Bucs spend their 2021 #32 pick or maybe trade down into the 2nd round to get Andy Dalton?

  • This reply was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Roy.
  • This reply was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Roy.

not to rain on your parade about later round picks, but let’s look at first round picks since 2014

i consider a bust a QB that isn’t starting with original team or has reached success with subsequent team (i.e. Drew Brees)

2014 – Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater – all bust

2015 – Winston, Mariota – all bust

2016 – Goff, Wentz, Lynch- all bust

2017 – Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson – Finally we have some starting caliber Qbs in Mahomes, Watson. Watson may bust for off field reasons but let’s call him a WIN for now.

2018 – Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson – Jury is still out on Mayfield, Allen, and Jackson. Not enough time has passed. Hell, Wentz, Goff, Mariota, and Winston all had some solid seasons as well before ultimately busting. Darnold and Rosen bust. So that’s say 3 starting caliber QBs but no slam dunks yet.

2019 – Murray, Jones, Haskins. Already Haskins has busted. Jones is meh and jury is out on Murray. Would say Murray fids in 2018 class category as maybe.

2020 – Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Love. Too early to tell on any of them.

so judging by 2014 to 2019 (excluding 2020). You had a slam dunk rate of 2 out of 19. Add in the maybe success and you get 6 out of 19.

moral of the story is that you bust more than not (that’s what she said!) and it’s better to go the route of KC, Baltimore, where the team is already successful and have a talented team around them. Basically dont do what the Jets always do and draft a QB on a shit team.