Post count: 5954

I think most fans expect their GM to be a genius. Think of Doug Martin, Lavonte David, Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, etc as players that we took out of the top ten who were all star caliber. In fact a lot of all-pro players were taken out of the top ten but most fail to realize that it was out of a pool of thousands where most failed. But every draft has studs after the top ten. The chances of finding them are just slimmer.

Kind of this.  When you look back at drafts 5 years later (often sooner), the BEST player in that draft is often taken outside the top 10.  To your point though, being that the draft is an inexact science, don't you increase your chances by getting a higher volume of top 150 selections?  Especially if you are above average at evaluating talent.Also, you can look at specific trades.  I think you'd find that teams that trade back do better then teams that trade up, by and large.  Especially at the top of drafts.  Once you get down a little bit and trade ups for specific players generally cost less they become higher success rates (I believe). 

Please wait…