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    • LIBucsFan93

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      I came across this article at JoeBucsFan and thought it worthy of sharing. Now there is a huge difference picking at #5 and picking in the 20’s in the first round. I don’t think there is a issue with the talent at the top end of this draft as there are at least 8-9 quality players that could help the Bucs. 3-4 of those players will be gone by #5 if AZ selects a QB #1 overall.

      So how did Arians and friends perform with first-round picks? It’s not pretty. Here’s a summary:

      2013 Jonathan Cooper, No. 7 overall, Guard – BUST
      2014 Deone Bucannon, No. 27 overall, Safety/Linebacker – Didn’t perform to draft level, now with Bucs.
      2015 D.J. Humphries, No. 24 overall, Left Tackle – Has played in just 27 games through four seasons.
      2016 Robert Nkemdiche, No. 29, Defensive Tackle – After two rough seasons, he finally was having a breakout season last year but blew his knee out in November.
      2017 Haason Reddick, No. 13 overall, Linebacker – Lost starting job to begin the 2018 season, came on strong in second half of the year. A work in progress.

    • Anonymous

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      Post count: 4188

      Negative posts about Savior Arians won’t be well appreciated  by PR tribe……

    • JC5100

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      Post count: 3262

      If you watch the Amazon show about the Cardinals, they lucked into get David Johnson. They were all set to draft Ameer Abdullah at #55, were on the phone with him. Detroit took him at pick #54. So they took Johnson in the 3rd round.

    • Ja’crispy

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      You know what is good about Arian’s drafting? 3 years in a row he was picking in the 20’s. 27, 24, and 29.  Wouldnt that be nice?

      • LIBucsFan93

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        Post count: 244

        o the downside to that it was his poor drafting that led the Cardinals to be picking 1st overall this year. #DoubleEdgedSword

    • Havok904

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      Post count: 13021

      So comparatively speaking, how this match up with the rest of the league?

    • Ramonb

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      Post count: 740

      I like him as a coach….not so much his personnel decisions.

    • BucFanFromATL

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      Post count: 958

      Uh. This doesn’t paint the full picture. It’s just a case study on “first round selections” and doesn’t say anything about his ability to build a team, deconstruct a roster and rebuild it, and turn a team into a contender.

      What you can deduce from the draft positioning is Arians was successful for a majority of the seasons he was there.

      Also it doesn’t speak to the quality talent he was able to find in the later rounds. For example the 2013 draft he was able to Kevin Minter in the 2nd (who he was able to develop into a starting level LB after a couple years), Tyrann Mathieu in the 3rd, Andre Ellington in the 6th…

      Plus that was just the draft… The Cardinals keep a detailed breakdown of their franchise transactions by year and date here:

      https://www.azcardinals.com/team/transactions/2013

      If you go back to January 17 2013 when they hired Bruce and look at how he came in, evaluated the roster, and scrapped it down… then started building it up (arguably from scratch) you start to see what he and his team of coaches can do when it comes to evaluation, coaching, training, and building a team/roster.

      They immediately turned that dumpster fire around.

      The article in the OP is a good case study piece on the hit or miss nature of the draft and college prospects/projecting into the NFL level… but is not an indictment on his “personnel decisions”

      • LIBucsFan93

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        Post count: 244

        Very true but it was also his decisions that led the Cardinals to where they are today. Hoping he’s more of the former than the latter.

    • Havok904

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      Post count: 13021

      ^^^
      Well put

    • Pennywise

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      Post count: 10108

      Team was bad  but lets not forget they were in the superbowl 2008

      Airans has a true dumpster fire now,10 wins last 2 years ,have not seen playoffs in a long time

    • Anonymous

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      ruce Arian’s Arizona draft History- Not Great!

      thanks goodness for you guys you have Licht there to correct him when he’s off on his picks……

    • Havok904

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      Post count: 13021

      Morgan
      LIBucsFan93 wrote:
      RUCE ARIAN’S ARIZONA DRAFT HISTORY- NOT GREAT!

      thanks goodness for you guys you have Licht there to correct him when he’s off on his picks
      —–
      That’s it.

      I’m writing your folks to complain about their failure to use effective birth control .

    • tampaspicer

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      Post count: 3484

      Morgan you are consistent. Like a fly that that won’t go away.

    • CollinP

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      Post count: 43

      ruce Arian’s Arizona draft History- Not Great!

      thanks goodness for you guys you have Licht there to correct him when he’s off on his picks……

      Can anyone decipher this for me?

    • Anonymous

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      Post count: 4188

      Bruce Arian’s Arizona draft History- Not Great!

      thanks goodness for you guys ….you have Licht there to correct him when he’s off on his picks……

      Can anyone decipher this for me?

      I’ll help.

      You have a proven and talented GM Licht who can override Arians’ bad draft choices.

    • tog

      Participant
      Post count: 3533

      Uh. This doesn’t paint the full picture. It’s just a case study on “first round selections” and doesn’t say anything about his ability to build a team, deconstruct a roster and rebuild it, and turn a team into a contender.

      What you can deduce from the draft positioning is Arians was successful for a majority of the seasons he was there.

      Also it doesn’t speak to the quality talent he was able to find in the later rounds. For example the 2013 draft he was able to Kevin Minter in the 2nd (who he was able to develop into a starting level LB after a couple years), Tyrann Mathieu in the 3rd, Andre Ellington in the 6th…

      Plus that was just the draft… The Cardinals keep a detailed breakdown of their franchise transactions by year and date here:

      https://www.azcardinals.com/team/transactions/2013

      If you go back to January 17 2013 when they hired Bruce and look at how he came in, evaluated the roster, and scrapped it down… then started building it up (arguably from scratch) you start to see what he and his team of coaches can do when it comes to evaluation, coaching, training, and building a team/roster.

      They immediately turned that dumpster fire around.

      The article in the OP is a good case study piece on the hit or miss nature of the draft and college prospects/projecting into the NFL level… but is not an indictment on his “personnel decisions”

      1) Completely correct that’s it’s disingenuous to just look at 1st round picks.

      2) We don’t know the power relationship between Arians and Keims. There are coaches who have more power (Lovie/Licht, Gruden/Mayock) although usually it’s the GMs who do (which is a change in the last 10 years).

      To lay these picks at Arians feet without supporting evidence is dumb. I’ve always got the impression, even before becoming a Buc, that Arians was hands-off in terms of scouting. Yes, like every coach there were guys he liked and he was involved in the process but that he ultimately leaves it up to the GM. And that’s what it sounds like it’ll be with the Bucs too.

      3) I do have to say that there were a TON (at TON) of bad picks over the Keim/Arians tenure. Minter was a bad pick (you expect a lot more from a 2nd round LB)

      https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd/draft.htm

      I mean from 2013-2017 you’re looking at two clearly good picks in Matthieu and David Johnson. Outside of that you have a bunch of busts and then role players like John Brown, Bucannon, Golden, and Okafor. I really liked Baker, maybe he’ll be good.

      But in 5 drafts you have like two good players and a bunch of role players. It’s ugly and you have to wonder how much Licht “learned” from Keim.

      4) The really interesting point is how well Arians did in spite of these terrible drafts. I mean you look at the 2015 team and can easily see how it went 7-8-1 the next year. There are serious holes and a lot of players who are just not quite good enough.

    • Roy

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      Post count: 4075

      ruce Arian’s Arizona draft History- Not Great!

      thanks goodness for you guys you have Licht there to correct him when he’s off on his picks……

      You have it totally wrong.  Arians came here because he trusts Licht to take the lead in the personnel area.  If he wanted to bring is his own GM and make all the important personnel decisions himself he could have found a team to hire him to do that.  The reason he surprised many by coming to Tampa Bay is that he wanted certain things to be in place.  He didn’t want to start from scratch this time and rebuild an entire franchise from the ground up.   He just wanted to come into an already established situation and do what he does best- coach.   He knows Licht.   He saw Winston here, another first overall pick he can whisper.

      He didn’t come here to be in charge of the draft room.  The draft board will be formed by a group process led by Licht.  Thats his job.   They will basically stick to that draft board.  They will pick the player he wants in the first round.  On Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft here is what Arians is going to say.  “Sure”.  “Yes.”  “Sounds good.”  “I agree.”  He’s going to have his veto power and won’t use it much if at all.

      I really believe Arians came to Tampa Bay because he just wants to coach.

    • Havok904

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      Post count: 13021

      You have it totally wrong. Arians came here because he trusts Licht to take the lead in the personnel area.
      —-
      And how do you know this?

    • trollslayer

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      Post count: 17

      joebucsfan lol not a fan of that site outside of ira kaufman who sometimes himself can write the same type of nonsensical fluff pieces, the journalists over there write articles that are pure dribble they contradict their own articles one of the writers even STILL always refers to Jameis Winston as “America’s Quarterback” and “Pro Bowler” lol they actually blocked me from their site for commenting that their articles are straight doodoo… i do like Ira though and he’s a HOF voter who usually tries hard to get a buccaneer in every year and a poster above said it best– arians just wants to coach the GM and staff will do the rest

    • GoldsonAges

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      Post count: 2968

      Arians was the Cards GM?

      Or was it Steve Keim?

      GottaJaboo wrote:
      (Justin) Evans will be far superior to (Budda) Baker in the pros.

      Dan Skipper Sucks! (lost bet)
      Update – UDFA Dan Skipper has been signed by the Dallas Cowboys

    • GoldsonAges

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      Post count: 2968

      How can you blame the coach when the GM was the shot caller?

      I dont get it

      GottaJaboo wrote:
      (Justin) Evans will be far superior to (Budda) Baker in the pros.

      Dan Skipper Sucks! (lost bet)
      Update – UDFA Dan Skipper has been signed by the Dallas Cowboys

    • Roy

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      Post count: 4075

      You have it totally wrong. Arians came here because he trusts Licht to take the lead in the personnel area.

      —-

      And how do you know this?

      Arians came to Tampa Bay because A) Arians thought Licht was pliable and would take directions from him so that he could control every aspect of the team, or B) because Arians wanted to come to a team with an experienced GM he was familiar with who would do his job and let Arians do his which is to coach.  You tell me which one you think is true.

    • Anonymous

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      Post count: 4188

      How can you blame the coach when the GM was the shot caller?

      I dont get it

      Gruden got the heat when you guys drafted some bad players. HCs have input, some more than others….guess Arians doesn’t?

    • Pennywise

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      Post count: 10108

      You guys drafted?

       

    • BucFanFromATL

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      Post count: 958

      @tog

      I agree with that assessment. It really is a testament to how great of a coaching staff he put together. The lack of hits overall over the course of 4-5 years will put any franchise behind the 8-ball in terms of sustaining success… but there are many other factors that go into that as well.

      Bruce has always been the type of guy to respect “lanes”… He for the most part stays in his lane. Everything they seem to do is collaborative in nature, and he being the Head Coach does have a level of veto/say so power. But from almost every person I’ve heard speak about him and the way he operates, he doesn’t come off as the the authoritarian type when it comes to decision making. He speaks of “trust” and “family” ect… and everyone around him seems to corroborate that sentiment. The only way you can touch so many people from so many different backgrounds and maintain those life long relationships is to live it and demonstrate those values in your actions.

      From what he preaches/speaks/and gives up to the media is that he likes a lot of different voices in the room. So it sounds like (imo) that his coaching staff will be detailing to Licht and his Scouting/Recruiting/Pro Personnel Depts the types of players they are looking for, what type of schemes they want to implement etc and then trust that Licht and his staff will find those players… I imagine Licht will then meet with everyone to go over the draft strategy and the big board and go over each prospect and get feedback from the coaches and possibly rearrange that board based on feedback.

      The only time I can see Arians straight up Vetoing Jason is when he suggests something dumb like trading up in the 2nd to draft a kicker smh…
      I can imagine Bruce dumping a bunch of expletives in that war room.

    • Havok904

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      Post count: 13021

      Arians came to Tampa Bay because A) Arians thought Licht was pliable and would take directions from him so that he could control every aspect of the team, or B) because Arians wanted to come to a team with an experienced GM he was familiar with who would do his job and let Arians do his which is to coach. You tell me which one you think is true.

      I Pick A.

      But answer the question I posed to you.

    • GameTime

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      Post count: 613

      Arians came to Tampa Bay because A) Arians thought Licht was pliable and would take directions from him so that he could control every aspect of the team, or B) because Arians wanted to come to a team with an experienced GM he was familiar with who would do his job and let Arians do his which is to coach. You tell me which one you think is true.

      I Pick A.

      I think B.  Arians has already given up playcalling.  I think the dude just wants to coach.  In Tampa hes got a relatively young QB who could be a franchise guy and a GM he is familiar with.

    • Roy

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      How can you blame the coach when the GM was the shot caller?

      I dont get it

      Gruden got the heat when you guys drafted some bad players. HCs have input, some more than others….guess Arians doesn’t?

      He has the amount of input that he wants.   Its not about draft day.  Its about the draft evaluation process.    If the GM is in charge of evaluating the prospects, then you can’t really justify throwing your weight around in the war room during the draft.  Again, I’m not talking about pick #5.    I’m talking about the rest of the draft trades and picks.  If Arians is going to be taking charge, he’d be doing it now while they are evaluating and setting up their draft board.   To try to take charge in the war room when you don’t know the prospects well enough would be a big mistake that I don’t think Arians would make.  I’m not in One Buc and I certainly could be wrong, but based on what we all see publicly I don’t get the sense that he is acting like the orchestra leader and directing everything when it comes to the draft.

    • BucFanFromATL

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      @Havok904

      I pick B. For the same reasons @GameTime pointed out. Since he’s arrived he hasn’t given off the vibe of being super hands on and authoritarian. It seems like he is taking more of a big picture delegation approach and focusing on coaching/teaching/mentoring/and building people (from players to coaches).

      It seems like the relationship he has with Licht, the trust is already there. He didn’t come in here to step on Jason’s toes. I think they will be working collaboratively, but Arians isn’t controlling the draft. His input will heavily influence the direction we go but in terms of building a big board and scouting etc he’s doesn’t seem to be involved in that.

      I’m not there in the office, so ultimately I don’t know. But my guess is B.

    • Havok904

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      I think B. Arians has already given up playcalling. I think the dude just wants to coach. In Tampa hes got a relatively young QB who could be a franchise guy and a GM he is familiar with.
      —-
      Could be.

      But I doubt any veteran coach would put his fate totally in the hands of a GM. Coaches want to build their teams and select the personel they feel would fit into their scheme giving them the best chance to succeed.

      Other than maybe Koetter’s first year, there is probably very little chance that Licht controlled the draft room and FA signing since he arrived.

    • GameTime

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      But I doubt any veteran coach would put his fate totally in the hands of a GM.

      I wouldnt use the word totally.  He probably came hhere in part because he knew he could trust and work with licht.

    • Roy

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      Post count: 4075

      You have it totally wrong. Arians came here because he trusts Licht to take the lead in the personnel area.

      —-

      And how do you know this?

      I don’t know anything more than any Joe Fan who reads PR and other Bucs news and rumors sites.    I just have amazing talents of perception and intuition.

    • Anonymous

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      ruce Arian’s Arizona draft History- Not Great!

      thanks goodness for you guys you have Licht there to correct him when he’s off on his picks……

      You have it totally wrong.

      So your new head coach is delegating drafting and playcalling. Sounds like a great gig at nearly 70 yrs of age……

    • Havok904

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      Havok904 wrote:
      BUT I DOUBT ANY VETERAN COACH WOULD PUT HIS FATE TOTALLY IN THE HANDS OF A GM.

      I wouldnt use the word totally. He probably came hhere in part because he knew he could trust and work with licht.
      —–
      I disagree.

      He probably came here because he knew the Glazers rely on Licht to be more of a business manager than a football guy.
      The coaches select the players and Licht’s main job is working the contracts and cap strategy.

      The guy has a 27-53 record as a football executive. Do you really think the Glazers keep him around because he is great at evaluating football talent? The Head Coaches have a hell of a lot more influence on who is drafted and FA signings than he does. Its been that way since Lovie.

      Also, you would have to be a total idiot to believe Arians looks at the Bucs as opportunity to grow old, pad his 401k, and give OJT to his assistant coaches. That’s Buctard logic.

    • tog

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      Post count: 3533

      @bucfanfromatl

      Totally agree.

      It’s also why I think its silly to expect Arians to radically improve Licht’s GMing. Licht sucks, but Arians will get a lot out of the players that are here.

      The question is – will that be enough?

      My only caveat to that is does Arians still have it? After the retirement, health issues, and a couple years of losing… is 2019 Arians the 13-13 coach of the 8-8 one.

    • GameTime

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      Post count: 613

      I disagree.

      He probably came here because he knew the Glazers rely on Licht to be more of a business manager than a football guy.

      The coaches select the players and Licht’s main job is working the contracts and cap strategy.

      The guy has a 27-53 record as a football executive. Do you really think the Glazers keep him around because he is great at evaluating football talent? The Head Coaches have a hell of a lot more influence on who is drafted and FA signings than he does. Its been that way since Lovie.

      I thought Greenberg did the contracts and cap strategy?

      Since the beginning of time we’ve argued who is in control of the draft.

    • tog

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      Post count: 3533

      Havok904 wrote:

      BUT I DOUBT ANY VETERAN COACH WOULD PUT HIS FATE TOTALLY IN THE HANDS OF A GM.

      I wouldnt use the word totally. He probably came hhere in part because he knew he could trust and work with licht.

      —–

      I disagree.

      He probably came here because he knew the Glazers rely on Licht to be more of a business manager than a football guy.

      The coaches select the players and Licht’s main job is working the contracts and cap strategy.

      The guy has a 27-53 record as a football executive. Do you really think the Glazers keep him around because he is great at evaluating football talent? The Head Coaches have a hell of a lot more influence on who is drafted and FA signings than he does. Its been that way since Lovie.

      Also, you would have to be a total idiot to believe Arians looks at the Bucs as opportunity to grow old, pad his 401k, and give OJT to his assistant coaches. That’s Buctard logic.

      That’s weird to me. First, what “business” does Licht handle? Second, that 27-53 GM is still in charge of the front office and scouting department. The problem isn’t just Licht but the system he’s a part of and has created. He’s not making decisions in a vacuum, he’s also built a large team to provide him with information.

      There’s always interplay between the coaches and GM. And while Lovie had more power certainly his 1st year Koetter was not the one calling the shots. You have to have evidence to demonstrate that.

      And even with Arians – yes Arians came in with power but he’s historically been a guy who’s involved in the front office (like most coaches) but stays in his lane and lets the front office do its thing.

      Again, need evidence to say otherwise.

    • Havok904

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      Post count: 13021

      LoL

      He has more than a “feel”. He’s been told what to do.

    • BucNCane

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      Post count: 1066

      Feel like you could take the last 5 years of a lot of teams and say they drafted not great in the first.

      Pats haven’t had a pro bow first rounder since Dont’a Hightower in 2013

      Saints 2011 Ingram

      seahawks 2010 earl thomas.

    • BucNCane

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      Post count: 1066

      And on the flip side, Bills have drafted Marcel Darius, tre white, Sammy Watkins and stephon Gilmore and they won bunk.

      Hell, Bucs have drafted 3 pro bowlers in the first round since 2012 in Evans Winston and Martin.

    • Anonymous

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      Post count: 4188

      Feel like you could take the last 5 years of a lot of teams and say they drafted not great in the first.

      Pats haven’t had a pro bow first rounder since Dont’a Hightower in 2013

      Saints 2011 Ingram

      seahawks 2010 earl thomas.

      those teams tend to get the bottom of the first round, Bucs usually get the top half or better….they can take risks, Bucs can’t afford to risk picks

    • Buc on the Move

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      Post count: 1522

      So…we should definitely try to emulate those winning franchises and stop drafting Pro Bowlers in the first round, got it.

       

      Seriously, though, that is an interesting correlation (or lack thereof) of First Round pick Success vs. Team Success.

    • Roy

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      Post count: 4075

      ruce Arian’s Arizona draft History- Not Great!

      thanks goodness for you guys you have Licht there to correct him when he’s off on his picks……

      You have it totally wrong.

      So your new head coach is delegating drafting and playcalling. Sounds like a great gig at nearly 70 yrs of age……

      Here’s a guy a tidge older than Arians and his main job in the draft is to congratulate the draftees.  He could have gone home after Day 1 and it wouldn’t have made a difference.   What an overrated coach.

       

       

       

    • Diehard Astheycome

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      Post count: 499

      ruce Arian’s Arizona draft History- Not Great!

      thanks goodness for you guys you have Licht there to correct him when he’s off on his picks……

      Priceless , when it’s all said and done it will be 8 + yrs more of futility to this franchise and 8+ yrs of our lives us diehards won’t get back. Arians is a good coach , not a great draft evaluator. However it’s the GMs job to provide the players. HC job is to “ coach”!! If nothing else this team should have all the foundations in its secondary and the right side of the Oline fixed!! Last year was a DB heavy draft it’s a weak position this year. Safeties are all 2nd day grades- not two top 10’s like last year. A GM should know which classes are which.An all pro safety was gift wrapped with two #2’s plus a 3rd #2. We should have gotten our Safety n two future starting CBs plus OL /LB by end of rd 2. Then knowing the strength of the 2019 draft , this is when you’d find Gmac replacement!! I also was the ONLY person on the boards last year that thought the JPP excitement would be short and expensive. That an early 3rd had more “ future” potential. We could have stacked our secondary/ right side of our line, within first 3 rds considering we traded up to get a #3!! ( we’d had 2 if not for JPP trade). Also Vea vs SF and JPP having had a good game last year  probably cost us Bosa, Allen or Q Williams. So they’d be replaceable, that secondary foundation plus OL or LB help we cost ourselves last year not so much. All the die hard everything is positive Bucs fans ? You don’t need hindsight to see a major mistake happening right before your eyes. I was right on last years draft ! As I’ve been right on all 5 of Lichts drafts.

    • Diehard Astheycome

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      Post count: 499

      And on the flip side, Bills have drafted Marcel Darius, tre white, Sammy Watkins and stephon Gilmore and they won bunk.

      Hell, Bucs have drafted 3 pro bowlers in the first round since 2012 in Evans Winston and Martin.

      Mike Evans is the ONLY true PRO BOWL selection that Licht as ever DRAFTED or SINGED in FA!!! Winston was a 2nd alternate!! And Doug Martin, G Mac , Lavonte David ( All Pro) were all Marc Dominik guys. Not to mention the draft is MADE in RDS 2-3!! Where last year Derwin James was hand wrapped and 3 #2’s should have gave us two future CBs n OL or LB at end of rd 2. This yrs draft  is A+ for Dline/ Edge This is the year you’d get GMac eventual replacement!!! It’s a poor secondary draft!! It’s why we should have kept our 3rd last yr (plus trading back into 3rd)and that would have given us 6 picks in top 3 rds to stack secondary and right side of OL or a LB like Fred Warner at end of rd 2. Then this years draft could be devoted to retooling the Dline with our first 3 picks!! But our GM doesn’t know how to think 2 minutes ahead.Derwin, two young stud CBs and RG/RT n LB – should have been our six selections- then this year ALL Dline/ Edge!! With a Miles Sanders thrown in.

    • BucNCane

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      Bruh. The thread is about first rounders.

    • BucNCane

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      Feel like you could take the last 5 years of a lot of teams and say they drafted not great in the first.

      Pats haven’t had a pro bow first rounder since Dont’a Hightower in 2013

      Saints 2011 Ingram

      seahawks 2010 earl thomas.

      those teams tend to get the bottom of the first round, Bucs usually get the top half or better….they can take risks, Bucs can’t afford to risk picks

      Oh yea. Like Arians at 27 24 27 29…

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