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    • DEBUCSOWN

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      Post count: 2903

      Per pewterplank.

      5 teams have checked in on the #1 pick so far.

      Would obviously be costly. Perhaps worth it for Burrow though?

      Thoughts?

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 445

      Not true.

    • Roy

      Participant
      Post count: 4083

      @DEBUCSOWN, What should the Bucs trade for him?  You post this and then leave it for everyone else to tell you you’re crazy and that it can’t be done.  Instead, Why don’t you tell us what the Bucs should give up that the Bengals would accept to move up from 14 to 1 and then I’d be happy to respond as to whether I agree with that assessment.

    • Live4BUCS

      Participant
      Post count: 462

      You’ll be talking multiple 1st rounders (2-3) and a 2nd and maybe even OJ as part of a package. It’ll be more expensive than the RG3 trade the skins did.

    • Greattimes

      Participant
      Post count: 1018

      Only if a team is on the cusp of greatness, would giving up the draft choices needed to move up make any sense. The Bucs are nowhere near being on the cusp of greatness. The Bucs need to spend the majority of their cap money resigning players. If 1 or 2 of the players who performed last year sign with other teams, the Bucs have huge holes to fill. Without the draft choices needed to rebuild, the Bucs will continue to be a losing team into the distant future. Bad idea.

    • RHBucsFan

      Participant
      Post count: 1966

      I would do it. Why not?
      Jameis has been a flop and we need a star QB to compete in this league.
      What else would our GM do with the picks? Select more DBs and Kickers

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      I’m not advocating anything at this point. But lets just do some speculation.

      Let us say it takes 1, 2, 3 this year and 1, 2 next year.

      5 picks for 1 QB (the most important position in all of sports) that may be the answer. There is a “may be” attached to each of those picks.

      1) Those two mid-1sts have about a 45-50 % chance of not busting. Not great player ROI assurance, just not busting. Let us say, 1 of those 2 work out, and they’re actually a solid to + football player. Lets say a RT that plays for 2 contracts and is an asset, but not a huge difference-maker; an asset for 2 contracts.

      2) As we certainly know, 2nd round pick volatility is high. We’re talking about something like a 65 % bust rate. There is a fair chance that one guy becomes a decent football player that is one contract and gone (or injury-prone and out) and the other guy busts out of the league.

      3) 3rd round gets even more volatile. I want to say 1 in 4 of these guys (I can’t remember the exact math of the study done) turns out to be a productive football player. Let us say neither busts but both are long-tenured journeyman depth players who provide spot starter help/special teams.

      So a very reasonable look at the return for those 5 picks are:

      – Good football player who is an asset for 2 contracts, but not a difference-maker.
      – Decent football player who is one contract and gone.
      – 2 * depth and spot starters that round out the middle/bottom of the roster nicely for 4-7 years.

      +++++++++++++++++++

      How do you feel about trading up for a potential difference-maker at the most important position in professional sports now?

    • Pepsi

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      Post count: 2065

      @Nobody – I’ve been in favor of trading up for a difference maker many times for those reasons. Bosa’s, Clowney, Nelson. Sometimes I like trading back when it makes sense.

      With the Bucs current situation I actually think a monster move up for Burrow makes sense. Thats a huge cap saving at QB position, can bring back the entire defense. If the second half of the year defense is the real Bucs defense then all wed need to compete with the top dogs is to field a starting RT and Burrow. Can probably afford a solid RB to pair with Jones too

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 2134

      But Jameis is amazing and should get a tender, so he’s worth 2 first round picks right there! Trade (franchised) Jameis, our 14th pick and 2021 1st rounder for their 1st pick and we’re in business!

      /s

    • GameTime

      Participant
      Post count: 613

      I’d say any QB taken this year has huge bust potential.  Gotta also think next years first will be a better pick than 14.  I wouldn’t mortgage the future on any of these guys.

    • acacius

      Participant
      Post count: 492

      I’ll say that if they’re ready to move on from Jameis, I’d feel better about a Rams-style trade for Burrow than I would taking Eason at 14.

    • Detrimental

      Participant
      Post count: 1599

      Not sold on Burrow as an elite qb prospect. If this was Andrew Luck type prospect, then yes, I’d be all in for this trade up. If Arians believes Burrow can be that guy then, I’ll support him. Use the $$$ on extending Godwin, bringing key leaders back on defense, and upgrading the RT position.

    • Graham

      Participant
      Post count: 1768

      Of course they are.  As they should be with every single team in front of and behind them in the draft.  Determine ahead of time how other teams value their selections and then make moves accordingly.

      Burrow is just as much of an unknown player as the picks being given up.  Is Burrow that much better of a prospect than Jameis was?  They’re pretty close statistically in their two full college years starting.

      Would you have given up that much for Winston had we not had the #1 pick?

      Would you have given up the opportunity to draft a “potential difference-maker at the most important position in professional sports.”  The Bucs didn’t.  The Bengals shouldn’t either.

      You take that opportunity when you have it every single time.  They’ll need a Brinks truck worth of picks to move off #1 overall.

    • Wutt

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      Post count: 397

      If they traded up it wouldn’t be for Burrows it would be for Young imo.

    • GameTime

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      Post count: 613

      If they traded up it wouldn’t be for Burrows it would be for Young imo.

      <p style=”text-align: left;”>
      Why not just sign clowney in that case?</p>

    • acacius

      Participant
      Post count: 492

      If they traded up it wouldn’t be for Burrows it would be for Young imo.

      Now, that I would hate.  As good of a player as Young likely will be, the only player who *might* be worth what it would cost to trade up to #1 is Burrow, and that by virtue of the position he plays.

    • Pepsi

      Participant
      Post count: 2065

      They’re pretty close statistically in their two full college years starting.

      Is your google working correctly?

    • ufcguy32

      Participant
      Post count: 444

      I’d love to see us move up for burrow. Sign rivers and draft burrow. You gotta take that risk and at this point we are at a crossroads.  We either have jameis or nobody when u think of it. So why not go after burrow. Trade them 2 first, a 2nd  and oj howard.  Resign your defense and then go from there

    • Anonymous

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      Post count: 2449

      Thought you guys were in the Brady-sweepstakes.

    • ufcguy32

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      Post count: 444

      Lol ya itd be nice but I doubt brady comes

    • SCLOBERNOCKER

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      Post count: 792

      I havent seen a college QB coming out I have liked as much as I did Jameis until Burrow. Jameis didnt become what we wanted, but hot damn does Burrow look the part. He’d be the only guy Id sell the farm for if they really thing we are close, and perhaps we are if we had a QB that could push it down field consistently, make accurate/timely reads, and not turn the damn ball over. Like its been said, this would allow us 5 more years of low cost QBing (hopefully at a relatively high level) and sink that money back into the D and keep it intact.

       

      Im not convinced they do it, but Id be on board. Burrow is legit.

    • Wutt

      Participant
      Post count: 397

      I havent seen a college QB coming out I have liked as much as I did Jameis until Burrow. Jameis didnt become what we wanted, but hot damn does Burrow look the part. He’d be the only guy Id sell the farm for if they really thing we are close, and perhaps we are if we had a QB that could push it down field consistently, make accurate/timely reads, and not turn the damn ball over. Like its been said, this would allow us 5 more years of low cost QBing (hopefully at a relatively high level) and sink that money back into the D and keep it intact.   Im not convinced they do it, but Id be on board. Burrow is legit.

      This team is no where close to winning with a rookie QB, they have far to many holes to fill, especially if Suh and JPP walk in FA. I personally would rather the Bucs keep the draft picks, sign a FA QB or Franchise Jameis and see if the Lasik he just got will stop his dam turnovers.

    • dexmonkey

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      Post count: 1943

      no chance thats true

      it would cripple the team to give up the amount of draft capital it would take to get that far up

    • CyberDilemma

      Participant
      Post count: 411

      I’m not advocating anything at this point. But lets just do some speculation.

      Let us say it takes 1, 2, 3 this year and 1, 2 next year.

      5 picks for 1 QB (the most important position in all of sports) that may be the answer. There is a “may be” attached to each of those picks.

      1) Those two mid-1sts have about a 45-50 % chance of not busting. Not great player ROI assurance, just not busting. Let us say, 1 of those 2 work out, and they’re actually a solid to + football player. Lets say a RT that plays for 2 contracts and is an asset, but not a huge difference-maker; an asset for 2 contracts.

      2) As we certainly know, 2nd round pick volatility is high. We’re talking about something like a 65 % bust rate. There is a fair chance that one guy becomes a decent football player that is one contract and gone (or injury-prone and out) and the other guy busts out of the league.

      3) 3rd round gets even more volatile. I want to say 1 in 4 of these guys (I can’t remember the exact math of the study done) turns out to be a productive football player. Let us say neither busts but both are long-tenured journeyman depth players who provide spot starter help/special teams.

      So a very reasonable look at the return for those 5 picks are:

      – Good football player who is an asset for 2 contracts, but not a difference-maker.

      – Decent football player who is one contract and gone.

      – 2 * depth and spot starters that round out the middle/bottom of the roster nicely for 4-7 years.

      +++++++++++++++++++

      How do you feel about trading up for a potential difference-maker at the most important position in professional sports now?

      The one negative is you would be foregoing the cheap labor those 5 draft picks would be providing for their first contracts (5 x 4 = 20 league years) which would have an impact on the salary cap. A sizable chunk of that could be offset by having a lower QB salary from the pick.

    • dexmonkey

      Participant
      Post count: 1943

      @CyberDilemma

      theres more than one possible negative scenario

      if the QB flames out you are beyond screwed. id much rather take those 5 swings at the plate than go all out for just 1. you hit a grand slam at qb and have to figure out how to build a roster with mid round talent or you blow it at qb and have to figure out how to build a roster with mid round talent and hand over high draft picks

      no thanks

      i dont remember the last time a mega trade worked. Julio Jones i guess and that wasnt even that high up

    • mgchat76

      Participant
      Post count: 395

      Hopefully the Bengals coach sees Winston as a reclamation project and Licht can pull off a tag and trade. Send the Bengals Winston, OJ (or Brate), this year’s 1st, 3rd and one of our 4ths, as well as next year’s first.  The Bengals could get a starting QB, starting TE (Eifert is a FA), and a bunch of picks. We’d get Burrow, and still have a 2nd rd to find an OT.

    • TCB2W!

      Participant
      Post count: 741

      @Graham

      So let me get this straight. Literally 250% Ints from Jameis is the “pretty close statistically.” Did you say that with a straight face?

    • wolfet

      Participant
      Post count: 156

      Normally not a fan of trading up (especially for kickers:)but for what you think is a franchise QB, yes go for it.  You can augment with FA for two years if need be.  The key I see, is only dealing with it for two years.  Resign jpp, suh, and Shaq and try to limit their guarantee money to two years.  That way 3 years from now you have room to rebuild through draft and with younger free agents.  Go for it, be bold.  I like this burrow kid.  Go back and watch fiesta bowl versus UCF, look at the hit he took.  Kid is tough as hell and has a legit arm.  I’m tired of losing and not having a franchise QB.

    • Hockey Duckie

      Participant
      Post count: 1531

      @Nobody,

      You have five cracks at one or more player being an NFL player.  You have one crack at it with QB.

      With QB’s, their draft selections are often inflated due to narrative necessity.  The BPA this year is Young, but the Bengals have no QB.

      What’s also missing is context.  Recall we had Steve Young, but no team.  How did that work.  Similarly, we had Winston and no team.  How’s that still working?

      I don’t trust our FO staff with talent evaluations and curtailing pieces to maximize them.  Rather than to listen to the previous coaching regime, GM Licht doubled down on Winston with a new coaching staff and Winston created his own club, the infamous 30-30 club of one member.

      We have so many holes to fill and so much uncertainty at OLine and secondary that you’re playing with fire if your team is looking to win today as opposed to growing a youth group together.

      We’re in a win-now mode for a couple of years now, especially so with Arians.  Our record last year is also inflated due to a weaker SoS.

      San Fran traded for Jimmy G with a 2nd round pick.  He only threw 8 passes in the NFC championship game and won.  I’m just saying there’s more than one way to construct a team and we’re not in a position to trade for a QB at the moment.  I request to use scope and context in these decisions.

    • BucsBay

      Participant
      Post count: 1965

      Why would cincy do that?

    • Ja’crispy

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      Post count: 961

      Last time they made a huge trade like that we won the Super Bowl, so yea im down. do it.

    • cvillebucfan

      Participant
      Post count: 826

      No shot.

    • Wutt

      Participant
      Post count: 397

      Last time they made a huge trade like that we won the Super Bowl, so yea im down. do it.

      Also had the #1 defense in the NFL had been to the playoffs consistantly, we have none of that. Hard Pass.

    • DonkeyHunter

      Spectator
      Post count: 13924

      Why would cincy do that?

      1. You should ALWAYS be shopping the pick.
      2. If you’re rebuilding and get offered 2-3 first round picks AND a couple second rounders…it’s probably in your best interest to jump on it.

    • TBChucky

      Participant
      Post count: 1515

      I have a hard time believing Dan Sileo has inside information that no one else has been able to uncover. Could they have called? Sure. But I definitely have a hard time believing this has legs.

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 2449

      Last time they made a huge trade like that we won the Super Bowl, so yea im down. do it.

      you folks like reliving those glory days……took special HoF players and likely future HoF head coach. Once in a lifetime sort of thing.

    • LIBucsFan93

      Participant
      Post count: 244

      When has it ever happened that 1 GM has selected two QB first overall in the NFL? Never that’s right. Not going to happen unless the Bengals are desperate because Burrows refuses to talk to them. A more realistic trade up scenario would be to #4 with the Giants for Herbert or Tua.

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 2449

      If they traded up it wouldn’t be for Burrows it would be for Young imo.

      There is no “s” in the man’s name.

    • LIBucsFan93

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      Post count: 244

      More likely reason the Bucs have called the Bengals is for the services of Andy Dalton. Not to trade up to #1 overall.

    • Havok904

      Participant
      Post count: 13021

      I wouldn’t mortgage the future the next two seasons for Burrow. Regardless how good it looks on paper that’s insane.

      It’s better to fix the trenches first.

    • kenntak

      Participant
      Post count: 1334

      If Burrow was another Mahomes, would you still want to draft for the trenches first?

    • Havok904

      Participant
      Post count: 13021

      kenntak
      If Burrow was another Mahomes, would you still want to draft for the trenches first?
      _____
      No one knows that and no one knew that about Mahomes then either.

      You sgambling on a position that has a relatively high bust rate.

      Also if they did draft Burrow, you would have to listen to folks complain how bad the OL and pass rush sucks for 2-3 more years.

      Hard pass

      Most likely the Bucs were getting a feel on Dalton.

    • Joey

      Participant
      Post count: 351

      Burrow is not the best fit for this offense, and you can get Eason who actually is with maybe like the 25th pick, so I am against trading up to one and for trading up to 25 :), then franchise Winston, and see 3 things:</span>

      1.  How good is Winston in year 2 in this offense

      2.  How good can eason be quickly

      3.  will having his possible heir apparent in house, will Winston clean his shit up…

       

      …or they can just get brady lol

    • TCB2W!

      Participant
      Post count: 741

      Since Brady was selected, BB has picked 10 QBs in 19 drafts. He’s always looking. 3 QBs he drafted started all the games for their respective teams. The only 2nd round pick he has used was on Jimmy G. All others were 3rd to 7th rounds. Funny note, he drafted Kliff Kingsbury for QB in 2003. So he even had one QB he drafted as a head coach last year.

    • DeltaBuc5

      Participant
      Post count: 102

      This franchise has absolutely nothing to lose after 13 years of absolute shit eating. Might as well go for bust.

    • Pennywise

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      Post count: 10353

      Burrow is not nor will he be on same planet as mahomes, mahomes has rare arm talent, rare.

    • Alldaway 2.0

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      Post count: 4689

      Burrow is more a technical passer but he is pretty damn good. And yeah Mahomes has the arm talent and technique that puts him on another level.

      Bucs need to be smart and don’t be in love with any certain prospect.

       

      Build the trenches!

    • BucBalla85

      Participant
      Post count: 2338

      Nobody should compare with a guy like Mahomes coming out of school. First off it’s just way too hard to tell how a player will transition from college to the pros. Second I am more in the school of thought they need to prove themselves in this league first and then you can make comparisons. So in Mahomes case that guy would need to win a super bowl first and/or perhaps instead have an mvp type season. The draft is such a crapshoot the player comparisons are just a joke imo.

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 3527

      _____

      Also if they did draft Burrow, you would have to listen to folks complain how bad the OL and pass rush sucks for 2-3 more years.

      folks will continue to complain about the trenches whether it’s an issue or not, the 2019 season is pretty clear indicator of that.

       

      Unfortunately,  Sounding smart seems to be more important than being right or wrong.

       

    • Havok904

      Participant
      Post count: 13021

      folks will continue to complain about the trenches whether it’s an issue or not, the 2019 season is pretty clear indicator of that.


      Unfortunately, Sounding smart seems to be more important than being right or wrong

      ____
      The irony

    • Havok904

      Participant
      Post count: 13021

      Dalton is worth a 3rd max.

    • TBayXXXVII

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      Post count: 2082

      If I’m the Bengals and I’m willing to drop down from #1 to #14, I’d want more of a guarantee on the return.  Meaning, I don’t only want draft picks.  I’d want either Godwin or Evans and probably someone else – probably the rights to Barrett.  Then I’d want this years #1 and next years #1.

      I’m also not accepting the deal until AFTER I have Barrett re-signed and Godwin (if he’s the WR I’m getting).

    • Pepsi

      Participant
      Post count: 2065

      Burrow is not nor will he be on same planet as mahomes, mahomes has rare arm talent, rare.

      Rare arm talent is one of many attributes. Its a great attribute obviously but just because someone doesnt have the same arm talent abilities doesnt mean they cant be on a similar level at QB. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are currently considered top 5 QBs in the history of the game. I wouldnt say either of them have the arm talent of Mahomes or Rodgers.

    • Havok904

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      Post count: 13021

      Arm Talent = being able to put the proper touch on a ball, arc and velocity, in order to make throws between/over defenders.

    • bucboi813

      Participant
      Post count: 220

      I personally can’t believe that not one of you knowledgeable guys would think if the Bucs made a trade it wouldn’t be for chase young once in  lifetime pass rusher who’s a game changer by himself next to vita and jpp with Shaq David n Devin and the young corners blossoming man we would be tuff to beat

    • SCLOBERNOCKER

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      Post count: 792

      Probably because he isnt a once in a lifetime guy, and you dont move from 14 to 1 for anything other than a QB.

    • Havok904

      Participant
      Post count: 13021

      Sportswriters and football analysts claim there are “once in lifetime” players in every draft.

    • GameTime

      Participant
      Post count: 613

      I personally can’t believe that not one of you knowledgeable guys would think if the Bucs made a trade it wouldn’t be for chase young once in lifetime pass rusher who’s a game changer by himself next to vita and jpp with Shaq David n Devin and the young corners blossoming man we would be tuff to beat

      Reminds me of Sapp asking for 17 and the offense saying nope.  Trading up to take young is too many resources in the defense.  Why pay barrett and jpp and invest 2 drafts in young?

    • Havok904

      Participant
      Post count: 13021

      For those who been asleep inside a hollowed out log for the last 6 months, JPP will not be a Buc next year.

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      @hockey-duckie

      Like I led with in my post, I’m not advocating for taking Burrows. I haven’t studied him enough to have a well-informed position.

      I just posed my post to provoke thought because what I typically see in these scenarios is people not comparing like to like.

      It typically works out as considering something approximating the hopeful, nearly best case scenario with many picks of lower value (say 4 picks including a pair of mid-1st nad mid-2nd rounders) vs the fears of a bust at a single pick in the top 3 or so.

      I’m trying to balance those scales with (a) the “difference-maker” quality and (b) the reality is math drops off precipitously as you move down the draft (both in (i) bust rate and (ii) level of contribution).

      Simply put, 1 Quenton Nelson (a guaranteed pillar at Offensive Guard, a game-changer for the ioL specifically and OL generally, an attitude-adjustment centerpiece, a low injury position, a long shelf-life position, a bargain salary-wise 1st contract) is worth our entire 2016 draft class and most of our 2017 draft class combined!

      Again, just posting to try to get people to not be dogmatic about these things and to equilibrate the scales more appropriately.

    • SCLOBERNOCKER

      Participant
      Post count: 792

      Pillars are remembered. The rest is always forgotten.

    • Hockey Duckie

      Participant
      Post count: 1531

      Simply put, 1 Quenton Nelson (a guaranteed pillar at Offensive Guard, a game-changer for the ioL specifically and OL generally, an attitude-adjustment centerpiece, a low injury position, a long shelf-life position, a bargain salary-wise 1st contract) is worth our entire 2016 draft class and most of our 2017 draft class combined!

      Again, just posting to try to get people to not be dogmatic about these things and to equilibrate the scales more appropriately.

      But do you need to draft up for Quenton Nelson?  That’s also missing.  In that same draft, Will Hernandez and Braden Smith were taken at the top of the 2nd round.

      2018 PFF grades on rookies

      • LG Nelson = 77.3
      • LG Hernandez = 66.7
      • RG/RT Smith = 72.4

      Although the Bucs missed out on Nelson, we did trade down and acquired two 2nd round draft picks, for a total of three 2nd round draft picks.  We could have traded up for Hernandez or Smith instead of settling on Cappa.  We didn’t “need” Nelson, but wanted Nelson.  We “needed” a starting RG in the draft and that could have been alleviated by trade up for Hernandez or Smith.

      Like I said, there are other ways to construct a team and you need scope with context.

      As for bust rates, you missed my point completely.

      1.  You increase your chances of having an NFL player with five whacks in the top 3 rounds (two 1sts, two 2nds, and a 3rd).  Take a look at 2017’s draft of TE OJ (1st), S Evans (2nd), WR Godwin (3rd), and Beckwith (3rd).  Godwin’s play is akin to a 1st rounder.

      2.  You’re not guaranteed the player picked 1st overall will pan out.  See Winston, Jameis.

      3.  Tampa isn’t a QB away from being a superbowl champion.  Also, we’re not in complete re-build mode either, which is why we’re picking 14th overall as opposed to 1st overall.  We’re a middling team who GM isn’t able to construct a solid team.  So I’d rather have more bites at that apple than swing-and-miss like Casey at the plate.

      4.  Know our GM.  Licht hasn’t traded up in the first or top of the 2nd rounds in all his six years in Tampa.  He will trade down in the first (2016 and 2018).  He will trade up into the bottom of the 2nd (2015 G Marpet and 2016 K Aguayo).  He will trade up into the third round (2017 LB Beckwith and 2018 G/T Cappa).

      Remember, we won our own Superbowl without a drafted QB.  We built our team first and then found a game manager with smarts.  Drafted Shaun King couldn’t do it (but I blame the NFL for disparaging Bert Emmanuel).

      You’re teasing people with the optimal outcome for a 1st round, but not the optimal outcome of those 5 draft picks.  Patrick Mahomes’ name is being bandied about, but he was the 10th pick overall and was purposely red-shirted his rookie season.  The Chiefs went 11-5 in 2015 and 12-4 in 2016.  Then traded up for Mahomes for 1st in 2017 (27th overall), a 3rd in 2017, and a 1st in 2018.  Scope and context says the Chiefs already possessed a winning program before trading for up for Mahomes, whom they planned to sit for a year.

      As stated previously, I add scope and context to vacuum ideas.

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