Pillars are remembered. The rest is always forgotten.
Simply put, 1 Quenton Nelson (a guaranteed pillar at Offensive Guard, a game-changer for the ioL specifically and OL generally, an attitude-adjustment centerpiece, a low injury position, a long shelf-life position, a bargain salary-wise 1st contract) is worth our entire 2016 draft class and most of our 2017 draft class combined!
Again, just posting to try to get people to not be dogmatic about these things and to equilibrate the scales more appropriately.
But do you need to draft up for Quenton Nelson? That’s also missing. In that same draft, Will Hernandez and Braden Smith were taken at the top of the 2nd round.
2018 PFF grades on rookies
Although the Bucs missed out on Nelson, we did trade down and acquired two 2nd round draft picks, for a total of three 2nd round draft picks. We could have traded up for Hernandez or Smith instead of settling on Cappa. We didn’t “need” Nelson, but wanted Nelson. We “needed” a starting RG in the draft and that could have been alleviated by trade up for Hernandez or Smith.
Like I said, there are other ways to construct a team and you need scope with context.
As for bust rates, you missed my point completely.
1. You increase your chances of having an NFL player with five whacks in the top 3 rounds (two 1sts, two 2nds, and a 3rd). Take a look at 2017’s draft of TE OJ (1st), S Evans (2nd), WR Godwin (3rd), and Beckwith (3rd). Godwin’s play is akin to a 1st rounder.
2. You’re not guaranteed the player picked 1st overall will pan out. See Winston, Jameis.
3. Tampa isn’t a QB away from being a superbowl champion. Also, we’re not in complete re-build mode either, which is why we’re picking 14th overall as opposed to 1st overall. We’re a middling team who GM isn’t able to construct a solid team. So I’d rather have more bites at that apple than swing-and-miss like Casey at the plate.
4. Know our GM. Licht hasn’t traded up in the first or top of the 2nd rounds in all his six years in Tampa. He will trade down in the first (2016 and 2018). He will trade up into the bottom of the 2nd (2015 G Marpet and 2016 K Aguayo). He will trade up into the third round (2017 LB Beckwith and 2018 G/T Cappa).
Remember, we won our own Superbowl without a drafted QB. We built our team first and then found a game manager with smarts. Drafted Shaun King couldn’t do it (but I blame the NFL for disparaging Bert Emmanuel).
You’re teasing people with the optimal outcome for a 1st round, but not the optimal outcome of those 5 draft picks. Patrick Mahomes’ name is being bandied about, but he was the 10th pick overall and was purposely red-shirted his rookie season. The Chiefs went 11-5 in 2015 and 12-4 in 2016. Then traded up for Mahomes for 1st in 2017 (27th overall), a 3rd in 2017, and a 1st in 2018. Scope and context says the Chiefs already possessed a winning program before trading for up for Mahomes, whom they planned to sit for a year.
As stated previously, I add scope and context to vacuum ideas.
Use this only to report spam, harassment, fighting, or rude content.