Hoping like hell to get a full year out of JPP and Barrett! I also feel Vea may be poised to bring more heat in year 3. Seemed like he was very close so many times last season.. Can’t wait to see year 2 with Bowles!
People like using stats, but if it’s used in a tiny scope, then it really doesn’t tell you much. When we compare 2018 passing offense to 2019 passing offense, we see that 2018 was a better passing offense.
Now, back to the Bucs lead the NFL in QB pressures. How efficient were the Bucs with their pressures? How many times did the pressures lead to a sack or intentional grounding? This is where I use Football Outsider’s defensive line stats.
NFL Average for sacks = 40 sacks
NFL Average for Adjusted sack rate = 7.0
Tampa Bay Raw sack and Adjusted Sack, 2019 (as per FBO)
What this means is that the Bucs’ pass rush, though vaunting as PFF boasts it lead the NFL in QB pressures, the conclusion of those QB pressures was below the NFL average of inducing a sack or an intentional grounding. An analogy is that our bark is worse than our bite.
A factor why we lack bite is that our secondary was still able to be exploited despite the pass rush. So QBs were still willing to take the pressure in order to complete a pass. We have the 16th best secondary, but that might have been ballooned due to the last six games of the season as we faced five losing teams and three backup QBs. We faced the Falcons twice and twice they threw over 300 yards (before they subtracted sack yards).
Lost in all this is the rush defense. It’s because the Bucs had a stout rush defense that it induced more obvious pass rushing situations for our defense.
Tampa will have to rely upon outside CB Dean, rookie S AWJ, and slot CB SMB to to help the lack of bite that our pass rush has.
Essentially, we got 48 sacks due to the volume of pass rushing chances. For all those chances, though, we were under the NFL average to produce sacks or intentional groundings. Is that all on the secondary? No. It’s mostly on our pass rushers to not finish the deal that the run defense provided in spades.
After personnel changes midway through the season, the Bucs got better. I heard on NFL Radio a few days ago, that in the last 8 games of the season, the Bucs’ secondary ranked 5th in NFL over that period of time.
I mean, Winston turned the ball over, literally 3 times per game, and the Bucs still went 5-3 in that time frame. Clearly the defensive play was better.
Hargreaves and Edwards were huge liabilities on pass defense. Big play after big play given up by those guys. Dean/Davis on the outside, we looked like a completely different pass defense. Then Adams stepped up after we benched Edwards. Excited to see how good this secondary can be with Winfield patrolling the back end and two potential locks on the perimeter.
Dont short change the impact SMB will have, after a year of slot (in which he didn’t play much of in college) and added weight/muscle he has put on. If he didn’t lose any speed with the additional weight, then I think hes going to have a very good year. If White takes a step forward as well that’ll really force teams to go outside the hashes
Rookie QB Murray ripped the secondary up, but thankfully CB Dean came up with a game saving INT to seal the win. Bend, but don’t break.
New Orleans didn’t have to pass the ball much because the Saints built up the lead to 27-10 with 5:32 left in the 3rd quarter. That’s basically a quarter and a third to sit on a huge lead.
Although the Falcons did throw over 300 gross passing yards, their OLine loves to give up 6 sacks to the Bucs’ defense in each game. hahahhahahah That sentence essentially sums up our defense – we can get a lot of sacks, but the opposing passing offense isn’t deterred enough to gash our secondary.
While CB Dean’s growth was a relief to see and the Bucs drafting S AWJ in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL draft, that could help either induce coverage sacks, INTs, or intentional grounding. But if a QB does still find time, then time is the secondary’s worst enemy.
Who controls that time? Our pass rushers, which includes our DT’s. We need our DTs to make more of an impact because our edges are already doing their job.
Our defense is going to be elite. Like top 5. Which is why we stand a chance. Bowles doesn’t fuck around. He’ll be fantastic as our next HC.
One thing I hope your right on.. They should be on the field far less with you know who gone..
More about second year in the scheme. Bowles is an excellent teacher particularly on the secondary front. We had some huge growing pains in this defense last year. I think those are gone now, if healthy.
I think the D will be better. Another year with the same coach and pretty much the same players. If they would have been better early on they could have made the playoffs but we could say that about the turnovers made by our qb. If the D plays like it did in the second half and our offense doesn’t turn the ball over, I expect to see them in the playoffs. Our offense won’t put up the same yardage but limiting the turnovers will be huge.
If Brady is efficient with the ball and doesn’t turn the ball over, I expect the offense to be able to put up points when they need to. It won’t be a super explosive offense but I think it will be effective. Brady is older but a smart player and will have good weapons that he didn’t have in NE last year. Expecting them to put up points for sure. Bradys age and arm strength could be a factor but i think his experience, leadership and work ethic will make up for that.
Also think the D will help more than it has in recent years. As long as they stay healthy that is. They have a chance to do some damage this season. On paper they look great. Just have to actually follow it up with some success for a change. As negative as some poster(s) can be, this team has a knack for messing up when expectations are high.
Nobody would be surprised if they shit the bed or brady wasn’t as good as before. The negativity isn’t really a big bold prediction as some want to make it out to be..