Bucs Pass Rush & Pass Block Win Rate

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  • #1237433
    tog
    Participant

    ESPN has a stat I really like called “Pass Block Win Rate” and “Pass Rush Win Rate”.

    The idea for the pass rush/block is measuring how often the pass rush wins in 2.5 seconds, and how well the OL holds up in 2.5 seconds.

    The theory is that ball is normally out at 2.5 seconds, so that’s how long the OL needs to hold up (and how quickly the pass rush needs to create pressure).

    Of course, it’s not perfect, but I think it’s a very, very useful stat to help tease out the relationship between pass rush/coverage and pass blocking/scheme or QB.

    Below, UP is good for pass rush, and RIGHT is good for pass blocking.

    The pass rush has been very good in 2.5 seconds suggesting (unsurprisingly) that the coverage is making the pass rush look worse than it is. It’s a different stat, but this disagrees with FO’s “Adjusted Sack Rate” which has the Bucs DL 31st.

    The pass blocking is just above average. To me, this is another data point putting the stake in the “Winston needs a better OL” or “no rookie QB can play behind this OL”. The OL isn’t great, it’s average. It just needs a QB who can get rid of it quick and a scheme that doesn’t require such a vertical set.

    pbwr prwr

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    #1237512
    ISLAND BUCS
    Participant

     

    Tog,

    My problem is the placement of NE and SF.

    If I understand correctly:

    NE is below average in pass rush and pass block.

    And SF who rushed Rodgers off his feet last night is just average in pass rush.

    And against NO last week, it didn’t seem like Winston had any time. In somewhat less than 2.5 seconds NO was all over Winston on many plays.

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    Remain intimately at the heart of experience.

    #1237520
    dexmonkey
    Participant

    Tog,

    My problem is the placement of NE and SF.

    If I understand correctly:

    NE is below average in pass rush and pass block.

    And SF who rushed Rodgers off his feet last night is just average in pass rush.

    And against NO last week, it didn’t seem like Winston had any time. In somewhat less than 2.5 seconds NO was all over Winston on many plays.

    agreed

    the 49ers passrush win rate makes zero sense. theyve been eating people alive with that DL all season

    the Bucs passblocking win rate does not seem right at all



    @Tog

    theres no way can you say this line is good when you actually watch the game with your eyes. if you think theyre adequate i question what you’re watching. D Smith frequently gets smoked and smoked badly. the LG position was horrendous when Cappa got hurt. Dotson is a step slow most of the time due to age

    the Saints game 2 weeks ago was an utter disaster for the OL.

    you also fault the QB for “holding the ball too long” but then you highlight the need to stop running such a vertical scheme. both of those things play into eachother . the problem comes when the receivers arent separating and the rush gets there. theres a reason Winston is having a historically bad year in terms of INTs. hes being flushed and rushed and his guys arent getting open.

    take a QB who takes too many chances and ill advised throws at times and add those factors and it can get really ugly

    it amazes me how i can watch other teams scheme guys incredibly wide open yet we ask Winston to make repeatedly difficult throws time and again. watch the 49ers lastnight and you’ll see receivers running wide open all over the place

    i just dont trust that you can take a new guy and ask him to work under the same set of circumstances and expect huge improvement

    facts are facts, the OL needs upgrades particularly at the OT spots and i am far from the only person to say that repeatedly. the staff here have mentioned it multiple times, mock draft websites repeatedly slot OTs to us

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    #1237527
    tog
    Participant

    Tog,

    My problem is the placement of NE and SF.

    If I understand correctly:

    NE is below average in pass rush and pass block.

    And SF who rushed Rodgers off his feet last night is just average in pass rush.

    And against NO last week, it didn’t seem like Winston had any time. In somewhat less than 2.5 seconds NO was all over Winston on many plays.

    Yeah those are good questions.

    What this data seems to be saying is that

    1) NE’s coverage is so good QBs hold the ball, giving the pass rush moire than 2.5 seconds to get there.

    I think this makes sense based on the eye test. The amount of O and elite coverage the Patriots have… They have the best-playing secondary in the NFL. And there was a whole offseason argument that in today’s NFL coverage >>> pass rush. That is, coverage is more important.

    I’ll go check, but it also could be affected by blitzing (I don’t remember how it factors that in).

    (NE’s had probably their worst OL of the last 10 years at least this season – it’s been bad)

    2) I think it’s something similar with SF. They’re secondary has played great.

    As well, I’m sure their Pass Rush Win Rate was really good against the Pack. And they’re still 12th.

    The data is just saying that they’re ONLY above average in winning in 2.5 seconds. But a good secondary gives you more time than that, where they’re having great success.

    ————–

    tl;dr

    Coverage gives the pass rush more time than 2.5 seconds, where the units are performing.

    And I’m not sure how it factors in blitz (I’ll check).

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    #1237678
    tog
    Participant

    theres no way can you say this line is good when you actually watch the game with your eyes. if you think theyre adequate i question what you’re watching. D Smith frequently gets smoked and smoked badly. the LG position was horrendous when Cappa got hurt. Dotson is a step slow most of the time due to age

    the Saints game 2 weeks ago was an utter disaster for the OL.

    you also fault the QB for “holding the ball too long” but then you highlight the need to stop running such a vertical scheme. both of those things play into eachother . the problem comes when the receivers arent separating and the rush gets there. theres a reason Winston is having a historically bad year in terms of INTs. hes being flushed and rushed and his guys arent getting open.

    take a QB who takes too many chances and ill advised throws at times and add those factors and it can get really ugly

    it amazes me how i can watch other teams scheme guys incredibly wide open yet we ask Winston to make repeatedly difficult throws time and again. watch the 49ers lastnight and you’ll see receivers running wide open all over the place

    i just dont trust that you can take a new guy and ask him to work under the same set of circumstances and expect huge improvement

    facts are facts, the OL needs upgrades particularly at the OT spots and i am far from the only person to say that repeatedly. the staff here have mentioned it multiple times, mock draft websites repeatedly slot OTs to us

    —————————————



    @dexmonkey

    I actually agree with most of this. I don’t think its as contradictory as you think.

    The “Pass Block Win Rate” is in 2.5 seconds. So what it’s saying is that for 2.5 seconds the OL is average (or just above average).

    So first, I think part of this is because we don’t appreciate how “bad” pass blocking is across the NFL. We just watch the Bucs, but most of the NFL could be (and often is) worse.

    So I think we lack the comparison.

    Second, I agree the tackles are a problem and the OL lacks talent. I’ve been beating that drum too for a while. I was against resigning Smith. But Smith being beat doesn’t mean the Bucs aren’t winning on the OL an average amount.

    Which gets to scheme (and Winston). The scheme leans heavily on the offense’s weakest point (it’s OL). Winston, both because of scheme but also because of bad habits going back to Florida State, holds onto the ball too long. Both of these extend plays beyond 2.5 seconds and make the OL worse than it is.

    There’s a big difference between saying the Bucs OL is doing a good job and saying the Bucs OL is average. In essence, what I’m arguing is that the Bucs OL is not good, but that ~15 other teams are worse. And that the scheme/Winston stresses the OL more.

    For example, think of the strip-sack of Winston last season that Smith loafed on. Now, I detest Donovan Smith as a player and he didn’t finish the play. BUT! He held his block for OVER 2.5 seconds. So while he failed to finish, he was “successful” under Pass Block Win Rate even while looking like a tool and giving up a sack-fumble (that Winston also was to blame for).

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    #1237719
    Hockey Duckie
    Participant

    So…  this stat is only focused on the 2.5 threshold and discards the whole play.

    And this is why Football Outsiders’ stat is better because it encompasses the whole play.  Since we’re an intermediate-deep ball passing team, we need more than 2.5 seconds blocking in our passing game.

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    #1237742
    tog
    Participant

    So… this stat is only focused on the 2.5 threshold and discards the whole play.

    And this is why Football Outsiders’ stat is better because it encompasses the whole play. Since we’re an intermediate-deep ball passing team, we need more than 2.5 seconds blocking in our passing game.

    They’re both important (as FootbalLOutsiders itself says – they are big fans of the stat).

    Its two different things.

    PBWR/PRWR don’t look at the “whole play”. But they do look at the portion the OL/pass rush is responsible for. Just like you can’t ask a DB top cover for 5 seconds, you can’t ask an OL to block forever. Conversely, a pass rush needs to be able to pressure the QB in 2.5 seconds. And if they are, but not getting sacks, like the Bucs it tells us that likely the coverage isn’t holding its end of the bargain.

    I think the stats really complement each other (as does PFF grades).

    I’m a big FO fan, like you, but there are flaws in ASR I think FootballOutsiders will admit. Because ASR “gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent.” it doesn’t perfectly factor in scheme. But its biggest weakness, to my mind, is it overvalues sacks (which are more flukey).

    Because sacks are “first a QB stat” it is reflecting as well a lot of what the QB is doing with the ball.

    This is a point I think I heard on FO’s podcast: Russell Wilson had perhaps the best pass blocking OL of his career last year. But he had his highest pressure/sack rate (and they were 30th in pass blocking per FO). I think FO would say the OL pass blocking rates really factor in the QB (in a way ESPN’s doesn’t).

    I think both stats need each other.

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