Coach Rankings: Arians 31st

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  • #1235983
    tog
    Participant

    EDJ Sports does a lot of analytics work for teams, FootballOutsiders, and ESPN.

    I just found out they did coach rankings based on some combination of DVOA and game day decision making. It’s not factoring in scheme or day-to-day team management (other than reflected in performance on gameday).

    You can see more here: https://edjsports.com/nfl/rankings/2019/week-12/coach-rankings/

    Arians is 31st. Not good, and reflects the reality of Arians bad, old school decision making.

    For context, Bengals are 31st, WAS 30th, then DEN and MIA.

    Top 5 in order are: BAL-SF-NE-MIN-DAL. The two that are interesting to me are Zimmer and Garrett. Garrett’s always been mediocre as a coach, but apparently his game day management has really improved. The Vikings have made a huge investment in analytics and it seems Zimmer, who was critical of it previously, has bought in.

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    #1235987
    Greattimes
    Participant

    OVER RATED!

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    #1236002
    buccnation
    Participant

    I’m more than willing to give Arians two more years though. Bring another QB in and let him work with him. We’ll see if that happens.

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    #1236003
    Anonymous
    Inactive

    I’m more than willing to give Arians two more years though. Bring another QB in and let him work with him. We’ll see if that happens.

    Agree….this season hasn’t been a complete and utter Raheem Morris-type failure. They’ve competed with the leagues second-youngest team.  No extreme blowouts.  Got behind 20-0 to a good Saints team and didn’t quit. Fought to the end. Coaching carousel at OBP has got to stop.   Two-time COY didn’t get bad overnight – he’ll figure it out.

    Can’t say the same about the GM.  But it sounds like they’re attached at the hip.

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    #1236011
    Mike
    Participant

    In between his senior moments replay challenges and his fist-shaking get off my lawn yelling at the refs, all I get from Arians are these slack jawed looks of where am I, who are all these people  confusion.  And I think his team is a perfect reflection of Arians.  Confused, bewildered,  no direction, no identity, no leadership, no answers.  31st seems generous.

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    #1236012
    tog
    Participant

    Two-time COY didn’t get bad overnight – he’ll figure it out.

    I think this downplays the age dynamic and over-values the Coach of the Year award.

    At some point coaches can’t do it anymore. Especially in places where coaches normally struggle.

    Look at Sam Wyche. Lovie Smith was one year removed from a 10-6 season (and maybe the best single defensive-year of the 2010s). Coaches, like players, are good until they are not.

    And Arians is old for a coach. Belichick and Carroll are the exception, not the rule. I don’t know if you remember, but I did a post in the offseason detailing how coaches win totals normally fall with age.

    Can Arians turn this around? Absolutely. He still could have it. But I’m skeptical because of (age+health+retirement) + Bucs + current performance.

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    #1236094
    Hockey Duckie
    Participant

    People are looking at this at a micro view.  Sure, you have some site stating that Arians is 31st overall.  If this year is your only scope, then I’ll agree with it.  But that’s such a small scope, hence a micro view.

    • 2018:  PF = 24.8, PA = 29.0, Point Diff = – 4.2 points
    • 2019: PF = 27.7, PA = 31.3, Point Diff = -3.6 points

    I am impressed with the improved scoring, but that’s also because Arians has a better OL personnel group to actually run the ball and a better kicker.  But defensively, he’s still suffering from the same problems Koetter’s teams ran into – not enough talent on the defensive side.

    This means we have had very good coaches, but our GM was not able to supply our coaches with upper echelon talent.

    It’s a lie that you can make lemonade out of lemons.  You need some sugar, some ice, and a lot of water.  You have to be impressed that our coaches are getting so much out of so little.  A better OLine and our offense could be like SF’s offense.  A better secondary and our defense could look like SF’s secondary.

    Arians is not to outright blame for the team losing.  He doesn’t have the horses in the secondary or the OLine.  Welp, that’s the same problem Koetter had as well.

    During the summer, while watching a lot of scouting videos, I came across a PFF video that queried, “Which is more important, the pass rush or the secondary?”  Through all their metrics, they all were surprised to see that it’s far more important to have a better secondary than it is to have a better pass rush.  It’s probably better to have both, though.

    This year, SF has the best pass defense with respect to yards allowed of 142.5 yards.  Tampa has a pass defense that allows the second league worst of 290.9 yards.  The Bucs gives up more than twice the yards the SF 49ers give up!

    My problem isn’t with Arians.  My problem is the construction of the team.  Arians isn’t in charge of that and was only here starting this season.  If we look at SF, their offense ranks in the bottom third of the league with 17 turnovers, but they’re 9-1.  We have 25 turnovers and we’re 3-7.  We don’t possess a team that can overcome it’s turnover QB like the 49ers do.

    Remember, Licht drafted CB SMB over CB Greedy or OL Dalton Risner, both far better upgrades today than SMB.  Last year, Licht drafted CB MJ Stewart before CB Carlton Davis.  That made no sense with respect to talent (only versatility).

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    #1236183
    Easythe great
    Participant

    Arians has failed because he refused to call plays and make Leftwich call plays in a make or break year for Winston.

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    Bucs fan from Texas.. FIRE THE CANNONS!!!

    #1236200
    Madman
    Participant

    In between his senior moments replay challenges and his fist-shaking get off my lawn yelling at the refs, all I get from Arians are these slack jawed looks of where am I, who are all these people confusion. And I think his team is a perfect reflection of Arians. Confused, bewildered, no direction, no identity, no leadership, no answers. 31st seems generous.

    Damn son, spot on!

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    #1236214
    tog
    Participant

    The Bucs have been behind the analytics revolution since it began. Glad Arians is leaning into that.

    Big surprise here is how low the Patriots are. Belichick used to be one of the most aggressive coach on 4th down, but per EDJ is now league average (because he hasn’t gotten much more aggressive).

    Keep in mind the rankings above are about a lot more than 4th down aggression. Big difference having one of the best defenses in the last 10 years (Pats) vs. a below average one (Bucs). For that reason, Bucs should be MORE aggressive.

    4th down aggression

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    #1236218
    Anonymous
    Inactive

    Arians has failed because he refused to call plays and make Leftwich call plays in a make or break year for Winston.

    hard to argue with that

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    #1236262
    Hockey Duckie
    Participant

    Arians has failed because he refused to call plays and make Leftwich call plays in a make or break year for Winston.

    The offense is putting up 27.7 points per game.  (we were around 28 ppg and ranked 3rd in the league).  On the whole, there’s nothing wrong with what Leftwich has been doing since it’s producing.  With 27.7 points per game, we should have a winning record if…….  we had an average defense.

    Blame the DC.  But we’ve been having the same problems under other DC’s.  So it can’t be the coaching, but rather the lack of talent.

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    #1236271
    RHBucsFan
    Participant

    And Licht likely ranked #32 GM. They’re quite the combo

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    #1236329
    Anonymous
    Inactive

    Analytics anxiolytics.  The only stat that should matter to you folks is the 3-7 team record. If they were 7-3 you’d all be happy as clams. Now you’re micro-dissecting shit.  And body language?  – that’s something you’re evaluating now, as well? How does Belichick do on that? How did Dungy do?

    Criminy.

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    #1236337
    DonkeyHunter
    Participant

    ^^^

    Not shocked that the socially challenged, ankle biting troll puts zero stock into analytics.

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