Comparison to Favre has to Stop (It’s Lazy and Ignorant)

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  • #1241464
    tog
    Participant

    I keep seeing references to Winston’s penchant for INTs and a comparison to Favre.

    What drives me crazy about this (and should drive you crazy) is the gross ignorance of when Favre played and who he was.

    People who compare Favre to Winston are just displaying football ignorance. I get it when fans do it, but analysts and media? It’s embarrassing.

    Here’s why:

    1) INT% First, you should look at INT% instead of just number of INTs to account for total throws. More throws = more INTs, even if you’re a more capable QB.

    In 1992 Favre was a part-time starter with an INT% of 2.8% (3rd best in the NFL).
    1993, first year as full time starter, it was 4.6%, 29/30th in the NFL. Bad.
    But in 1994 it was 2.4% which was 7th best!

    For 3 years (’94-96), Brett Favre threw very few INTs and was top 10 in INT% (coinciding with his 2/3 MVPs).

    The next 3 years (’97-99) Favre was bottom 10 in INT%.

    And then after that (’00-07), Favre was league average for INT% right around 16th in INT%, with the exception of 2003 and 2005 where he was at the bottom.

    The point is in Green Bay, Favre had a good season of INT%, a bad one, 3 good ones, 3 bad ones, and then was league average except for when he was 34 and 35 years old.

    Favre’s first 5 years as a starter, he had a 2.9 INT%.

    2) Stats get worse as Favre aged (duh). Comparing the full 20 years of Favre’s career to the first 5 of Winston’s is deceptive.

    Unsurprisingly, Favre threw fewer TDs and yards, more INTs (etc) as he aged. 36 year old Favre was not as good as 25 year old Favre.

    3) This is baked into the INT% point above, but the eras are COMPLETELY different.

    It’s tough to compare Brady and Brees early tenure to today’s NFL, never mind Favre’s in ’90s.

    Every single QB stat is better in today’s NFL than in the 1990s (or 2000s). TDs, yards, INTs, you name it.

    The crazy part is that, in this completely different era, Favre had more TDs, fewer INTs, a better TD%, a better INT%, and almost as many yards. In the 90s!

    Favre’s career 3.3% INT% is league average in the 1990s (never mind his 2.9% over his first 5 seasons).

    Over the past 5 years? 30th, 28th, 29th, 27th, 29th.

    4) Favre was just a flat-out better QB. Like far, far, far better.

    We can stick with INT% – Winston’s best INT% was 2.5% (which was during his 2nd worst statistical season otherwise). Favre had an INT% lower than 2.5% 3 out of 5 years.

    This doesn’t even get into the fact that Favre in his first 5 years had won 2 league MVPs and led the NFL in TDs 2x (he was 2nd in 1994). Again, remember his INTs by volume were low.

    There were MULTIPLE years were Favre was the best QB in the NFL.

    P.S. What about by age? Comparing by age is stupid, but by the time Favre was 25 he was 2nd in the NFL in TDs, 4th in DYAR, 6th in COMP%, 5thin yards, 7th in INT%, etc.

    Aka a great QB.

    5) What about Winston?

    Looking at yards, TDs, TD%, INTs, INT%, COMP%… Winston has only been top 10 in ANY of the stats once (9th in TDs in 2016). He is on pace to be top 10 in yards and TDs in 2019.

    Don’t think of whether that’s bad or good… just think of it in comparison to Favre.

    Over this period Favre was repeatedly #1 in these categories. He was repeatedly DOMINANT, not just good. And he avoided the lows of repeatedly being in the bottom of INT% like Winston.

    It’s just not even close.

    You know whos’ like Favre? Mahomes. Not Winston.

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    Q&A

    A) What about the team?

    Favre (obviously) had a much better team over his tenure than Winston.

    I mean, it wasn’t all good. His first 3 years they went 9-7, then 11-5, and then were dominant at 13-3.

    And how much of those teams being good was Favre throwing for an insane # of TDs and very few INTs? That makes every other part of the team much better.

    And even if we dismiss that, the team difference doesn’t account for the performance discrepancy. Bad defenses typically help a QBs stat sheet because of lots of shootouts and prevent defenses (if not the win column).

    You can say you can’t compare Favre’s win% to Winston’s and that’s completely true. But the statistics? There is just such a discrepancy.

    B) What about advanced stats?

    I’d have to build that out on my own because most aren’t easily accessible/comparable. Just take too much time.

    But given the difference we already see, they would skew the data even more in Favre’s era.

    C) What about Favre’s reputation as an INT-machine?

    This is an interesting football history question I’m not wholly capable to answer. You’d really have to go back and review in detail Favre’s history.

    To my mind, it was really Favre’s first couple seasons where this was true. It was largely 1993 and half of 94 where it was a concern. Then he turned it around and threw very few INTs for a number of years (including the total of 1994, where he was a 5th in INT%).

    As well, he just played so long that his INT totals are high. I mean, Peyton Manning is 9th. Marino 8th in all time INTs. Drew Brees is 15th.

    Ultimately it’s a combination of his first 2 years + his longevity + people looking at INTs, not INT%.

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    #1241467
    The Anomaly
    Participant

    It’s rationalization by the Winston knob gobblers to justify keeping their idol.  We’ll never win anything with him lobbing the football at opposing defenses like he does.  But hey, yardage…keep him.

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    #1241470
    notabucsfan
    Participant

    Okay, compare him to Manning then.

    Jameis age 25 thru 13 games** vs Peyton Age 25

    26 TDs vs 26 TDs

    4115 Yards vs 4131 Yards

    23 INT vs 23 INT

    5 Pick 6s vs 6 Pick 6s

    84.9 Rating vs 84.1 Rating

    61.3% vs 62.7%

    6 wins vs 6 wins

    Jameis vs Peyton first 67 career starts

    18,399 yards vs 17,190 Yards

    111 TDs vs 117 TDs

    78 INTs vs 84 INTs

    61% vs 61%

    86.9 passer rating vs 85.4 rating

    You can act like the times have changed but Peyton is still the pioneer of this ERA of passing football. If it wasn’t him for the QB position wouldn’t be what it is today. Not saying Winston is Peyton but to think he is a complete scrub and deserves to be benched just shows your hatred for the man or maybe some of you are just racist.

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    #1241473
    Pennywise
    Participant

    How many ints and pick sixes manning throw year 5?

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    #1241476
    Pennywise
    Participant

    Manning thru 19 on 600 attempts

    Jameis at 23 on 510 attempts

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    #1241477
    The Anomaly
    Participant

    Racist?  Hell, I don’t care what color they are as long as they win games.  I’ll take polka dots if they can win.

    Dilfer was a .500 QB here in Tampa. .500!  WTH.  How did we become so ok with losing that we are thinking of keeping this jack off another year or more?

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    #1241479
    notabucsfan
    Participant

    How many ints and pick sixes manning throw year 5?

    Not sure but in year 4 he had 6 pick 6s and the number 29th ranked defense and missed the playoffs and in year 5 his defense was ranked #8th and they made the playoffs

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    #1241480
    notabucsfan
    Participant

    Racist? Hell, I don’t care what color they are as long as they win games. I’ll take polka dots if they can win.

    Dilfer was a .500 QB here in Tampa. .500! WTH. How did we become so ok with losing that we are thinking of keeping this jack off another year or more?

    Dilfer also had one of the greatest defensive teams of all times and couldn’t move the football. Wow, could you imagine if we had that defense now? We would be nearly unbeatable.

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    #1241482
    BucBalla85
    Participant

    Consider the times that these players played. Not fair comparisons. Compare Winston to guys drafted in his days and really post changes to the rules because that was when Defenses changed and really lost some advantage they may have as a defense. Now days its not uncommon that a QB throws for a bunch of yards. Im sure the last few years there have been close to the most yards thrown by all QBs in the league. Not sure if that stat is out there but would be interesting to see.

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    #1241489
    BucBalla85
    Participant

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

    If you see the average passing by year you see how it improved every year after 2007 which was when those rules were starting to change. Also you see how the interception rate went down. NFL is finding out that guys can sling the ball better now days than they ever could. I dont think its just because of the rules though, I think there are better athletes right now. They are also finding that you cant win games by turning the ball over. So teams want a QB who will take care of the ball. What do teams say a lot? Win the turnover battle and you have a chance to win. Well with every game Winston plays, you better pray the other team turns the ball over too. If they dont, you have a real tough time winning that game. Even if your offense is scoring points. Offenses in this league can put up points better now than ever. The talent is there and the rules are there to help the offense succeed.

    Now, Winston is what he is. He is capable of throwing for many yards but he is also capable of hurting your team with interceptions. You have to really build a team that will be able to overcome his deficiencies because you know he will have them. Problem in the nfl is that if that is your qb then you better have a good team around him. Is our team good enough to play with the best in the league?? No top half in the league? I dont think we are quite yet so with Winston as our QB, we have to pray that they play well enough around him to play. When you want your #1 QB to be able to win games without that. Lets hope that if we bring Winston back that he leaves enough on the table to build that good team around him. He’s proven that he cant do it by himself.

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    #1241499
    The Anomaly
    Participant

    Winston is who he is…5 years in and he’s always going to turn it over.  You don’t win in this league turning it over.  FACT.  But the non-fans and those in love with his fantasy numbers see yardage and TDs and equate that to somehow winning.  False.

    We’ll never win dick with that asshat at QB.

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    #1241501
    captain ahab
    Participant

    Ridiculous post

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    #1241502
    SunnyD
    Participant

    That was such a ridiculous display of stat cherry picking it was almost impossible to follow

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    #1241505
    leeroybuc93
    Participant

    The making of new posts bashing Winston has to stop. It’s lazy and repetitive.

    You don’t like him. You don’t need to find 15 ways a day to express it. We get it. We got it years ago.

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    #1241507
    acacius
    Participant

    I always thought Favre was the best-case scenario for him coming out of college.  He’s wound up looking more like a rich-man’s Fitzpatrick though.  I wish I had reason to believe that that was going to change at some point.

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