Defense is better than you think, offense is worse

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  • #1233534
    Havok904
    Participant

    That’s easy, the Bucs pass D is horrible. Has been for a while. Which is why our “franchise QB” putting the D in such terrible position over and over and over again (going on 5 years now) is such a problem.
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    That doesn’t cover the opponents passing rating, the number of yards given up, and the number of touchdown passes not due to turnovers.

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    #1233538
    Havok904
    Participant

    The Bucs D sucks but the offense turning the ball over doesnt help said sucky defense. With the numbers our O has put up they should be winning more games. Why arent they? Its not just the crappy pass D. Other things are at play too. Have to think about it all.
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    I bet you that we lost more games due to bad defense than turnovers.

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    #1233544
    Havok904
    Participant

    4) Offensive Turnovers creating game situations favorable to the Passing Game.
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    Without a stat breaking down the number of touchdowns scored due to turnovers, all that is meaningless.

    Also the spot of the ball after the turnover has to be a factor.

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    #1233547
    BucBalla85
    Participant

    The Bucs D sucks but the offense turning the ball over doesnt help said sucky defense. With the numbers our O has put up they should be winning more games. Why arent they? Its not just the crappy pass D. Other things are at play too. Have to think about it all.

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    I bet you that we lost more games due to bad defense than turnovers.

    I wouldnt bet against that but at the same time, just because our D is so bad, doesnt excuse the turnovers. We need to consider those things too. Context is important as the OP pointed out. Its easy to point at stats and say oh the D is the reason we are losing games. Yea but you also have to look closely at whats going on too. Winstons turnovers arent helping either. Its not helping a crappy D and its not helping a crappy team overall win games. We have to stop excusing Winstons poor decisions because we have a crap team around him. Its not always his fault but the man just cant stop turning the ball over. Its like a disease he has or something.

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    #1233548
    BucBalla85
    Participant

    Good post OP, but imo even if Winston kept the turnovers to a minimum, this pass defense would just average more yards per game/drive. I have no confidence in this defense keeping teams from stopping the pass.

    New DB’s new coaches and its the same problem.

    Agree the D just sucks. The run D is the only good thing about it. Even that really doesnt matter if your team just cant stop the pass.

    Ill say this about Winston. I think hes looked the best he has in his career this year. However, hes still turning the ball over and that has been the constant in his entire career including college. When you have a crap team and your QB is throwing ints, recipe for disaster. As our record shows.

    The problem and question for me going forward is will the team be tough to build around Winston if he takes a starting QB type contract? After that managing the team will be tougher than it already is and do we trust Licht to build a team around Winston? I sure as hell dont. Things could change in Buc land but I dont know if I see things really getting all that better in the next few years. I hope Im wrong.

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    #1233550
    Watchman
    Participant

    That’s easy, the Bucs pass D is horrible. Has been for a while. Which is why our “franchise QB” putting the D in such terrible position over and over and over again (going on 5 years now) is such a problem.

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    That doesn’t cover the opponents passing rating, the number of yards given up, and the number of touchdown passes not due to turnovers.

    Actually a horrible pass defense does cover opponents passer ratings, yards given up, and TD passes.  None of that is good, and it significantly worse when the “franchise QB”, the guy who will want a +$100 million contract, keeps turning the ball over, resulting in our horrible pass D being back on the field.

    There is no one reason the Bucs suck, well maybe Licht, it is a collection of reasons.  Winston is just one of the reasons, he’s played a part in the Bucs being what they are – which is awful.

     

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    #1233552
    GoldsonAges
    Participant

    The big problem is our GM drafts shitty players, and you simply can’t overcome talent deficiencies and win in the NFL full stop

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    GottaJaboo wrote:
    (Justin) Evans will be far superior to (Budda) Baker in the pros.

    Dan Skipper Sucks! (lost bet)
    Update - UDFA Dan Skipper has been signed by the Dallas Cowboys

    #1233553
    BucBalla85
    Participant

    The big problem is our GM drafts shitty players, and you simply can’t overcome talent deficiencies and win in the NFL full stop

    Yup and when your GM does that its not easy for your franchise to come out of it. Especially if they are re-signing the crap players to big deals. Regrettably so.

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    #1233554
    notabucsfan
    Participant

    Regardless of the offense turning the ball over a lot the defense still gives up a massive amount of YPG. 25th in YPG and 32nd in YPG. So what, us turning the ball over a little less makes our defense go from 31ppg to what at best maybe 27ppg? That still makes us ranked 27th in PPG. Try to put the blame on the turnovers all you want but regardless of turnovers our defense would still rank in the bottom 5 of the league.

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    #1233561
    notabucsfan
    Participant

    I went and did the math for the Bucs. We have given up 51 points off of turnovers, which averages to about 5.6ppg. So lets say we are at the top of the league in points off turnovers against and the league average is half of 5.6ppg so takeaway 2.8 from that. That still means we are STILL giving up 28.2 PPG and that ranks for 28TH in the league. Our defense is still extremely bad regardless of the turnovers and on the four games where we gave up ZERO points off turnovers, our defense is still averaging 29PPG which is good enough for 31st in the league. So stop trying to make our turnovers the cop out for how bad our defense has been. Yes Jameis needs to quit turning over the ball but that is not the reason our defense is bad. Our defense is just bad regardless of the turnovers.

     

    I would actually maybe support this argument if we weren’t given up a tons of yards per game and our offense wasn’t ranked sixth in time of possession. So that just means we are given up a tons of yards in a short period of time.

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    #1233569
    cvillebucfan
    Participant

    Really amusing. So Winston throws our defense under the bus? You could make a case that he’s helping our defense by giving them a shorter field to work with (statistically), right? LOL! Too funny.

    Imagine if Winston had zero turnovers, we’d assuredly be last in the NFL in pass yards (probably by a NFL record margin) and as far as the TO’s driving up our PPG scored by our opponents what would make anyone think if those TO’s didn’t happen our defense would stop them from scoring when its CLEARLY obvious we are one of the worst defenses in the NFL?

    As far as our rush defense goes the last 3 games we’re facing the 3rd fewest rushes faced per game. For the season we rank 7th.

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    #1233572
    Nobody
    Participant

    I’ve brought this up before.

    1) There was a robust mathematical study done on the NFL’s dataset from (I want to say) 2001 to 2014. The study concluded that Turnovers should be normalized at a net gain of roughly ~ +4 points by the opponent.

    2) Right now, we are at 2.3 Giveaways per game.

    2.3 * 4 = 9.2 points per game GROSS given to the other team by our offense.

    3) However, we also need to discern how our defense is at generating Turnovers as compared to the rest of the league.

    Our defense is actually generating Turnovers at higher than the league median of 1.3 per game (1.7 per game; good for 6th in the league).

    If you take that median expectation of Turnovers generated per game of 1.3, that means our Giveaway differential beyond the norm (due to our offense’s disproportionate Turnover rate) is 1.0 Turnovers per game (2.3 Turnovers on Offense less the expected Forced Turnover by standard NFL defense of 1.3).

    So that comes out to roughly ~ 4 points net given up per game by our offense (with a normalized NFL defense creating an expected 1.3 Turnovers on the other side).

    31.0 PPG – 4 PPG = 27 PPG.

    That is good for between Oakland and Arizona.

    4) If you give our defense the extra .4 Turnovers they generate per game above the league median, that is an extra 1 point per game that they generate.

    Granting them that extra 1 point of differential they create above the norm, you’re talking about a defense that is right around Seattle for 23rd in the league.

    5) Meanwhile, we have one of the top Strength of Schedule (SoS) in the league to date…while Seattle’s SoS is in the middle of the pack.

    6) Finally, we have one of the top 3 WORST graded Special Teams in the league (which is a strong indicator of a personnel problem, especially depth), Seattle being over 15 points higher than us (which, like offense’s contribution to defense, Special Teams has to come into play as a parameter when comparing NFL defenses).

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    #1233585
    tog
    Participant

    Does this explain why the defense is last in passing yards allowed, 30th in touchdown passes allowed, and has opponent passing rating of 100?

    Well… let’s think this through.

    1) The secondary is not good. EVERYONE knows that. But as a whole, combined with the strong pass rush and elite rush defense the whole unit is average.

    For example, Kansas City has a below average rushing attack (22nd) but is 1st in both total offense and passing offense. Hmmm…

    2) This is where it gets really silly. Yes, the defense is last in passing yardage. I mean, yardage is one of the less important stats. But even then, the defense as a whole is 25th is total yardage/game and 20th in yards/play. For the record, the offense is 16th in yards/play.

    3) What do we think happens when the offense turns the ball over? It gives the other team more possessions, and thus increases the total yardage the defense will give up (just like points).

    4) Again… why focus on TD passes allowed or passing rating? We know the secondary isn’t great. But that’s not the argument. You’re arguing against a straw man, congrats.

    P.S. that passer rating against is still only 24th in the NFL.

    You’re not making the argument against the data you think you are.

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    #1233606
    Greattimes
    Participant

    The only stat that really matters is that the Bucs are 3-6.

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    #1233629
    GoldsonAges
    Participant

    I went and did the math for the Bucs. We have given up 51 points off of turnovers, which averages to about 5.6ppg. So lets say we are at the top of the league in points off turnovers against and the league average is half of 5.6ppg so takeaway 2.8 from that. That still means we are STILL giving up 28.2 PPG and that ranks for 28TH in the league. Our defense is still extremely bad regardless of the turnovers and on the four games where we gave up ZERO points off turnovers, our defense is still averaging 29PPG which is good enough for 31st in the league. So stop trying to make our turnovers the cop out for how bad our defense has been. Yes Jameis needs to quit turning over the ball but that is not the reason our defense is bad. Our defense is just bad regardless of the turnovers.

    I would actually maybe support this argument if we weren’t given up a tons of yards per game and our offense wasn’t ranked sixth in time of possession. So that just means we are given up a tons of yards in a short period of time.

    Thank you. Finally someone has done a reality based study in this thread!!!! And here I thought the whole thread was garbage. Thank you for saving it.

    5.6 PPG off turnovers is reality. All the hypothetical comparisons done in this thread were a total waste of everyone’s time (researching, writing, and reading) all the way around by everyone.

    NOW I can start reading analysis on the ACTUAL NUMBERS if anyone wishes to debate further.If you’re citing speculative, hypothetical numbers when it’s just as easy to cite the actial numbers, please stop wasting our time. Thank you.

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    GottaJaboo wrote:
    (Justin) Evans will be far superior to (Budda) Baker in the pros.

    Dan Skipper Sucks! (lost bet)
    Update - UDFA Dan Skipper has been signed by the Dallas Cowboys

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