Defense is better than you think, offense is worse

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  • #1233906
    tog
    Participant

    Give me a breakdown of where you are finding these extra 12 points, its very well possible I missed some.

     

    Either way you are trying to skew the data in your favor. If the average is 6.8 assuming the league average is half that 3.4 which realistically is probably higher you are looking at our defense given up up 27.6 PPG and that still puts us at 27th in the league in points given up which is still insane on top of given up a crazy amount of yards when they are barely on the field. and then you have us given up 32 points against Daniel Jones and the Giants without having any points of turnovers and 31 points against the Breesless Saints without having any turnovers. In these games with no points off turnovers we are giving up 420YPG on defense and that would put us 31st in the league on yards given up a game instead of 24th.

     

    So whats your excuse for us given up so many points a game and yards against below average quarterbacks when we don’t turn the ball over?

    @notabucsfan

    1) Bucs points of offensive TOs: I looked at every turnover and what happened with the resulting opponeents possession. That equalled 40 points. I hadn’t looked at that relationship until your post, but I was really surprised how often those turnovers were negated by the Bucs defense getting its own TO or getting a turnover on downs.

    Add to the 40 points + 21 off pick-6s + 2 points for a safety = 63.

    2) As Nobody points out, teams average 4 points off of turnovers. I think I address this more in my previous post. Halving the number I don’t think really addresses what is going on (again, especially because the Bucs have a crazy number of turnovers in their own end). I don’t think you address this – 12 TOs in field goal range is bonkers.

    While in my original post (to make a point) I just looked at TOs, realistically it’s not just the effect of literally every TO that matters. If you give the offense an extra possesion via TO, it doesn’t actually matter whether they score off THAT possession or the next. What matters in the modern NFL game is possessions because the scoring rate is now so high (field position no longer matters very much). So if an offense has 6 possessions and then “steals” 3 extra possessions via defensive turnovers, the total 9 possessions matter not what happens right after the turnover.

    Am I making sense? My point is that the possessions right after turnovers don’t matter to this argument.

    3) There was a turnover in the Giants game. And the Bucs GOT two takeaways vs. the Giants. They also had a defensive TO vs. the Saints.

    Vs. the Giants a Giants fumble led to a TD, then a Winston INT the Bucs D recovered a fumble leading to a FG. The INT on Kamara was in the red zone and also led to a TD. I hope this demonstrates how defensive TOs set the offense up to score.

    The Rams are maybe the best example. It looks like a high scoring game at 55-40. But remember the Bucs got a defensive TD (Suh) and Winston had a pick-6. That’s 14 points, meaning the defense netted 26 points. They also had another 3 INTs leading which all lead to TDs.

    So a “bad” performance was actually good. Certainly not perfect, but good. 28 points were thanks to the defense via turnovers.

    4) None of this engages with how play-by-play data like DVOA and EPA places the Bucs D at 21st and 16th respectively (and better than the O).

    I completely understand that stats like DVOA and EPA are hard to understand and engage with over purely PPG. I don’t completely understand them. But I know enough to understand how much more informative they are then just looking at yards or points. They are way way way better than that.

    A simple explanation (which Trevor also talks about in his C3): not all yards are equal. 3 yards on 3rd and 2 > 3 yards on 1st and 10.

    This play by play data is telling us there’s something wrong with how we’re evaluating the Bucs D. It’s saying it’s average/below average (specifically: elite run D, bad pass D).

    5) I’ve addressed this, but I don’t care about yards very much. I also don’t care about what they specifically gave up a single game against the Giants because it strips out context. Same with the Saints.

    And overall, I’ve addressed the YPG point in my first post after yours.

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    #1233909
    GoldsonAges
    Participant

    Here’s a fact… Winston sucks at consistency therefore SUCKS at QB. He has some great drives and a bunch of awful ones. We’ll never win with him turning it over like he does. Never. So, let’s all move on from Jameis Pick 6 Winston.

    Move on people.

    I think it’s time for you to move on to a new team because Winston will be extended.

    Winston has turnover issues, everyone can see that, but he is also a top young passer in the league with an astronomical ceiling.

    Get used to it.

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    GottaJaboo wrote:
    (Justin) Evans will be far superior to (Budda) Baker in the pros.

    Dan Skipper Sucks! (lost bet)
    Update - UDFA Dan Skipper has been signed by the Dallas Cowboys

    #1233913
    tog
    Participant

    @hockeyduckie I’m not quite following your point in your thread (other than having a positive TO differential helps big time).

    We can look at TOs a different way. Here are the top 10 offenses in terms of giveaways:

    Giants, Bucs, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Jets, Falcons, Rams, Chargers, 49ers.

    Only two teams have a winning record in that bunch: 49ers with the 2nd bets defense in the NFL (by a wide margin) and the 5-4 Rams (who are on pace to miss the playoffs).

    To me, that’s very instructive. ONLY looking at offensive turnovers you could create a fairly good model of what teams will likely have success.

    Average record of those teams? 3-6. Offensive turnovers make it almost impossible to win (unless you have Kyle Shananhan and the #2 D).

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    #1233974
    Hockey Duckie
    Participant

    Glazers are not the problem..they give their coaches everything they need,they’re not cheap,far from it,they have been paying 2 hc salaries at once for the last 8 years,at one point 3 at once.

    A top 3 weight room in the nfl,always out front when it comes to new technology. ..they spend whatever the gm wants in free agency

    This teams problem , is talent evaluation…and there seems to be a disconnect between coaching staff and scouting department, as to what they want to best fit the schemes.

    The Glazers are part of the problem.  They ditched far too early on Schiano all because of nostalgia.  They went with a past legend and it resulted in the #1 overall pick.  They’re slowly learning, but they’re also getting railroaded.  They gave into Arians’ demand to give Licht an extension.

    John Lynch as been a GM for three seasons.  Have you seen what his team is like today?

    SF 49ers OLine ranking, Football outsiders 2019

    • Run Blocking = 9th overall
    • Pass blocking = 8th overall (17 sacks)

    <span style=”font-weight: 700 !important;”>TB Bucs OLine ranking, Football outsiders 2019</span>

    • Run Blocking = 17th overall
    • Pass blocking = 24th overall (34 sacks)

    This is Licht’s sixth year in the league.  He still hasn’t fixed that OLine.  We need a GM that can get Ghostbusters (great OLinemen) so our QB’s stop seeing ghosts!  Instead, Licht gambles on kickers in the 2nd round, a billion DBs that don’t pan out, and believing Winston can hide so many offensive deficiencies.

    Can you imagine what this offense can be like with a top-10 run blocking and pass blocking unit?  At least then we’d fix one side of the ball straight away.  We’ve always been one OLine away from being good since Marpet was made into a center.  Passed on LG Hernandez in 2018 (could have traded up).  Passed on G/T Dalton Risner in 2019.

    The Glazers need to get rid of GM Licht after this season.  It’s time we have a better evaluator of talent as well as someone who’s ardent on getting Ghostbusters for whoever is our QB.  Remember, Fitz was amazing until our OLine was exposed.  There were so many ghosts that even Winston suffered from it as well in 2018-19.

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    #1233980
    Hockey Duckie
    Participant

    @TOG

    You don’t understand me because you pick and choose specific stats to help perpetuate lies.  I gave you a macro overview comparison between the Bucs and Chiefs last year and this year.  You choose to omit the defense has faults.

    • Job description of the offense is to score points.  Is the offense reaching that goal?  Yes.  They’re ranked 3rd overall.
    • Job description of the defense is to prevent scores.  Is the defense reaching that goal?  No.  They’re ranked last overall.

    But let’s entertain your “cherry picking”.

    • Bucs:  Giveaway = 21 (31st).  Turnover differential = -6.  PPGA = 31.0 points (32nd)
    • SF:  Giveaway = 15 (22nd).  Turnover differential = 5.  PPGA = 14.3 points (2nd)
    • Car:  Giveaway = 15 (22nd).  Turnover differential = 4.  PPGA = 25.3 points (22nd)
    • LAR:  Giveaway = 16 (24th).  Turnover differential = -2.  PPGA = 21.0 points (15th)

    Records

    • Bucs = 3 – 6
    • SF = 8 – 1
    • Car = 5 – 4
    • LAR = 5 – 4

    So when you say the offense gives up turnovers then they can’t win?  It’s odd seeing three other teams around the bottom third (giving up turnovers) that have winning records.  So turnovers aren’t the end-all, be-all stat you’re purporting.  SF sets ablaze your stance.  Not only does SF give the ball away often, but their defense ::: gasps ::: prevents other teams from scoring still!

    If the Bucs defense can prevent scores like SF, Car, or LAR, then we’d also have a winning record.

    • Bucs O + Bucs D:  28.9 – 31.0 = – 2.1
    • Bucs O + SF D:  28.9 – 14.3 = + 14.6
    • Bucs O + Car D:  28.9 – 25.3 = + 3.6
    • Bucs O + LAR D:  28.9 – 21.0 = + 7.9

    So despite the high giveaways the offense gives for SF, Car, and LAR, their defense is better than the Bucs’ defense.  Which is why all three have winning records.  But when paired with the Bucs’ offense, look at the point differential.  Rest assured, the Bucs would have a winning record.

    By busting your cherry picking stats and including more stats to give people more context, it really shows just how putrid our defense is at preventing scores.  Despite all the turnovers the 49ers give (15 total), their defense is allowing less than half (14.3 points) of what the Bucs defense is allowing in scoring (31.0 points).

    So, no, this defense isn’t better than what I think.  Also, no, this offense isn’t worse.  Sometimes, people get lost at the grass level b/c they don’t want to see the big picture.  But when presented with the big picture, they plead ignorance to continue the narrative of something so false it belies reality.

     

     

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    #1234167
    TBayXXXVII
    Participant

    The answer has been made multiple times on this board, every reasonable person knows them. In order…

    1a. Jason Licht sucks at player evaluation

    1b. The Glazers don’t make the necessary changes

    2. Winston stinks

    #’s 1a and 1b are interchangeable, but until they change, there’s nothing… well, that’s not going to change. The one thing that can change, is #2.

    ____

    Reread the thread

    What you’re talking about has nothing to do with Tog proposed.

    My initial response did, just because you didn’t understand it, that isn’t my fault.

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    #1234173
    Graham
    Participant

    It’s amazing to me that we can be 3rd in the NFL in points per game, with an awful defense that isn’t creating short fields, and people continue to target the quarterback in a negative way.

    How does that make any sense?

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    #1234176
    Hockey Duckie
    Participant

    It’s amazing to me that we can be 3rd in the NFL in points per game, with an awful defense that isn’t creating short fields, and people continue to target the quarterback in a negative way.

    How does that make any sense?

    Because life is many shades of Pewter.

    You can have a high scoring offense with an inconsistent QB.  Winston leads the league in interceptions with 14 INTs and 10 fumbles (4 fumbles lost).  People can still be critical of the team.  Last year, the Bucs lead the league in passing yards, but it couldn’t run or score points.

    If the team was winning, then many of us would still point to the inconsistencies of Winston throwing 14 INTs and 10 fumbles (4 fumbles lost).

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    #1234244
    Havok904
    Participant

    My initial response did, just because you didn’t understand it, that isn’t my fault.
    _____
    Ok
    Let me line up a translator to help with the interpretation of your drunken gibberish.

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    #1234301
    VirgilCaine
    Participant

    So I see the argument, keep Winston (with the turnovers) just get much better on defense?

    Is that your point Hockey?

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    #1234311
    Nobody
    Participant

    One metric that we don’t look at often is 4th quarter defense.

    In a world where most games are decided by a score or less, that is an extremely relevant statistic.

    Here are defensive statistics I would like to see:

    * 4th Quarter Total Drives Faced.

    * 4th Quarter Stops.

    * 4th Quarter Points Per Drive.

    * 4th Quarter Turnovers Generated.

    * 4th Quarter Turnovers Generated Per Drive Faced.

    The only statistics I can find are the following gross, non-contextual statistics.

    * Tied for 2nd to last with 9.3 Points Per 4th Quarter.

    Unfortunately, this doesn’t give us any context of (a) opponents, (b) situation, (c) frequency of drives faced, or (d) the disproportionate Offensive Giveaways contribution to that number (if we’re + .5 Giveaways above the league median in the 4th Quarter, that is a big contributor).

    Unfortunately #2, all of the Drive Stats I can locate are on a Per Game Basis. Those Drive Stats favor the Buccaneers being a better defense than their Gross Ranking.

    We’ve faced the 5th most Drives in the league and we’ve generated a relative TON of 3 or 4 and Outs because our Defensive Time of Possession is near the tops in the league yet we haven’t given up much in the way of big plays.

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    #1234599
    Hockey Duckie
    Participant

    So I see the argument, keep Winston (with the turnovers) just get much better on defense?

    Is that your point Hockey?

    No.  Please read the topic Subject title, which is, “defense is better than you think, offense is worse”.

    I am simply refuting that the offense isn’t worse than the defense and that the defense still has the responsibility of preventing the opposing team from scoring.

    There were two examples given to compare the Bucs with, KC last year and SF this year.  With a bad defense, KC still won several games because they had a top scoring offense in 2018 to where they were still able to outscore their porous defense.  At the end of the post season, KC still fired their DC.  This year, the SF 49ers has 15 turnovers, which ranks at the bottom third of giveaways, close to the Bucs’ turnovers (21).  Yet, their defense is magnificent as they prevent over half the scoring the Bucs’ defense allows this year.

    So there are two ways you can go about this (in simple form, but there are many options), either improve your OLine to have a far more dominant offense to make up for your porous defense or vastly improve your defense to make up for your turnover prone offense.

    GM Licht chose to go halfway and gamble with talent.  His talent evaluation for secondary players has failed.  In four consecutive drafts, including this past one, Tampa has drafted 9 DBs.  Today, the Bucs rank 32nd in pass defensive yards allowed.

    Now, if you have been reading my comments, I’ve also stated that even if the Bucs were winning, I’d still be leary of any QB with a turnover rate of 14 INTs, 10 fumbles, and 4 fumbles lost.

    IMO, if you have a top-5 OLine in run blocking and pass blocking, then that can vastly improve the turnover margin as the team is now a two-dimensional offense.  Also, if you can run, then you can eat up time to where you reduce the opposing offense’s drive quantity.  That would reduce the exploitation of the defense.

    Now, when it comes to Winston, GM Licht has put us fans between a rock and a hard place.  Licht should have secured the OLine two seasons ago with higher end talent for immediate results, as opposed to hoping 5th rounders like Pamphile or Benenoch as well as late 3rd rounder Cappa become immediate starters.  Licht should have also left Marpet at center because he allowed Winston to step up into the pocket.  (When Marpet was center for 11 games, the team gave up 20 sacks.  When Marpet fell to injury, the remaining five games, the OLine gave up 20 sacks.)  Without a complete, competent OLine, an abysmal secondary, and an inconsistent QB in Winston, Tampa has too many problems that needs fixing.  So we’re going to have to bite the bullet on which of the lesser evils are we going to have to tolerate going into next season.

    We now know that with Arians struggling with this team, it wasn’t bad coaching from Koetter’s regime, but rather a lack of talent.  Arians has a better OLine this year than Koetter did last year.  Arians has more talent at RB this year than last year (Rojo is ready to play this year.)  Arians has more talent in the defense this year than Koetter did last year.

    There is no clear cut answer to Winston, but there is a clear cut answer that GM Licht has screwed the Bucs and his coaches.

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    #1234619
    Buccodeuce
    Participant

    No they are not

    end thread

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    #1234627
    Lawdy
    Participant

    they both suck

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    #1234647
    Mic
    Participant

    White is a liability

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