Defense is better than you think, offense is worse

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  • #1234922
    tog
    Participant

    @hockey-duckie

    You don’t understand me because you pick and choose specific stats to help perpetuate lies. I gave you a macro overview comparison between the Bucs and Chiefs last year and this year. You choose to omit the defense has faults.

    “…to help perpetuate lies.” Oooooookay.

    If you want to post nonsense in response then (a) read what I said and (b) read what I said.

    I’ve said the defense has faults. Repeatedly. And in my OP btw. The defense (before this week) was 21st in DVOA. That’s not good. That wasn’t the argument. The argument was that the offense is making the defense look a lot worse than it is.

    You’ll also notice the title of the thread, which you apparently read, was “the defense is better than you think, the offense is worse.” Not “The defense is really, really, really good.”

    I also already addressed the turnovers by pointing out that high turnovers are a strong model for not being successful (with the one exception being SF, aka a #2 defense).

    Your posts seem to be largely disconnected from my point. Yes, you can have a good defense with an offense that turns it over too much. But its really really hard, and those TOs make the defense look good. You’re hopefully aware that being 22nd in giveaways is different than 32nd.

    As for Kansas City… I legitimately have no clue what your point is. A positive turnover differential is good? That KC’s offense had half the giveaways that the Bucs did in 2018 and 2019?

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    #1234933
    Havok904
    Participant

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    #1234994
    tog
    Participant

    ^
    Hahaha. Galifanikas’ character won in that scene right?

    ————–

    This Saints game illustrates exactly the narrative I see in the data.

    Bucs and Saints have 21 first downs each, similar 3rd down efficiency, similar total plays, and the Bucs outgained the Saints 334 to 328 yards.

    Saints gave up 1 sack, the Bucs 2. Saints outrushed the Bucs, but the Bucs out-threw the Saints.

    Saints had more penalties and penalty yards. In fact, 5 of Bucs first downs came from penalties (0 for Saints).

    Yet… 34-17.

    What happened?

    Well, another pick 6. So D gave up 27. And Bucs O had 5 plays (and a TO) in the 1st Q. That’s the 13th TO in the Bucs end (16-yard line), and goes for a TD. Up until that point D had given up yards, but only 6 points.

    And that’s the rest of the game. Bucs have a below average defense that looks like a terrible defense because of a below average offense that looks like a good offense.

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    #1235513
    tog
    Participant

    Week 11 DVOA update:

    Bucs are 24th in offense, 22nd in defense.

    Pass offense is 23rd, running game 19th.

    Pass defense is 30th and run defense still 1st.

    Interestingly, the Panthers as a team are ranked lower than the Bucs (25th to 24th).

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    #1237415
    tog
    Participant

    Updated for last two weeks:

    1) The Bucs O has given up 14!!! turnovers in the Bucs end.

    2) + 4 Pick-6s and a safety. Bucs O has directly given up 30 points this season.

    3) currently, teams are averaging 7.6 points/game off Bucs offensive turnovers.

    4) Bucs D is 7th in Takeaways. Bucs O is, of course, 32nd in giveaways.

    5) Top 10 Offenses in giveaways: Bucs, Giants, Bengals, Dolphins, Jets, Eagles, Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, Browns.

    A lot of winning teams there…

    P.S. Absolutely every team has turnovers. But Saints, Packers, and Ravens have COMBINED fewer turnovers than the Bucs. As well, Winston has been LUCKY this season, if he was average in fumbles lost the Bucs would have 29 turnovers.

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    #1237531
    Hockey Duckie
    Participant

    So…  the Bucs gave up two INTs and walloped the opposing team at the same time.  Isn’t it odd what happens when a defense shows up?

    Like I stated weeks ago when SF was in the top-10 in giveaways, they have a defense to help overcome that inconsistency.  Also, they have a run game.

    SF’s playcalling:  Passing = 47.6%, Rushing = 52.3%

    Tampa’s playcalling:  Passing = 60.8%, Rushing = 39.1%

    We’re a one-dimensional team on offense and our defense has been… missing.

    Against the Falcons, they made the Falcons to 1-4 in the Red Zone.  If the Falcons went 4-4 in the Red zone, then that’s 28 points.  If the Falcons scored on the early turnovers, then its probably we lose the game b/c we would abandon the run game.  But the Defense actually did it’s job… it played defense.

    It’s funny how that works.

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    #1237547
    GoldsonAges
    Participant

    @tog must have a crystal ball over there. The Bucs defense definitely wasn’t better than I thought when you started this thread.

    But now after cutting VH3 and getting Dean, Davis and Adams on the field together voila, now they ARE better.

    Talent was clearly a huge issue in the secondary. I just hope they’re as good as I think they are right now.

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    GottaJaboo wrote:
    (Justin) Evans will be far superior to (Budda) Baker in the pros.

    Dan Skipper Sucks! (lost bet)
    Update - UDFA Dan Skipper has been signed by the Dallas Cowboys

    #1242304
    tog
    Participant

    Week 15 update

    1) DVOA

    Bucs offense 21st in DVOA. Bucs defense 9th.

    Bucs rush defense still 1st, pass defense has climbed to 19th.

    Keep in mind this is for the season. In weighted DVOA (which weights more recent games) the Bucs D is 11th. Aka Bucs defense has gotten slightly worse recently.

    What is this telling us? Again, I think its saying that offensive turnovers + schedule made the D look a lot worse than it was. I think as well fans don’t have a sense of how “bad’ defense is across the NFL. With rules changes, there are only a couple truly “great” defenses anymore. Most good defenses are “mediocre”.

    2) Giveaways/Takeaways

    Bucs O is 1st in giveaways with 32. Top 5 teams are Bucs, Giants, Panthers, Dolphins and Bengals.

    In the top 15 of giveaways, only teams with a winning record are the Rams (7th), Steelers (12th) and 49ers (15th). The Steelers and 49ers have a positive give/take ratio (+12 and +6, respectively).

    Bucs D is 5th in takeaways! Big part of why they’re so good in DVOA.

    3) Offensive Turnovers

    Bucs offense has given up 16 turnovers in their own end. For context, that’s more turnovers in the Bucs end than 11 teams have in TOTAL turnovers.

    The Bucs O has given up 37 points in direct points (pick-6/fumble TDs/safeties).

    104 points against the defense has come off turnovers, or 8 points/game. Of those, all but 3 points!!! have come from turnovers in the Bucs end. That is, of the Bucs turnovers not in their own end teams have only scored 3 points. That’s impressive!

    And it also shows how costly turnovers in a teams own end are.

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    #1242308
    Havok904
    Participant

    DVOA is best used by fantasy geeks.

    It’s a poor predictor for picking winners and losers on the actual football field.

    There’s a lot that factors into a football team that can’t quantified by analytics.

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