I choose Godwin wholeheartedly. Evans has been and is a great reciever, but he’s been playing hurt a lot and that isn’t likely to improve. You can always count on Evans. If he can walk he’ll play. But still he’s playing hurt.
For four more years you’d have to go with Godwin. If you think you are going to ride with high mileage Evans and flake Brown that’s fool’s gold. It sounds great but it could fall apart fast. If either of those guys isn’t available, it allows teams to shut down the other one. That great receiving corps is suddenly very pedestrian.
This is just like when AB left Pittsburgh and everyone just assumed that Juju would get EVEN MORE targets and finish with 1500 yards.
The reason Juju flourished was because of all the attention AB got.
While I do believe Godwin is actually a better receiver then Juju, do not discount the attention that Mike demands. He’s constantly double teamed. He’s a 6’5 230lbs deep threat. He’s a true #1 receiver.
I have said this before and get irritated at myself for even thinking it, but to me the most prudent thing to do is trade Mike for max value and sign Godwin to a 4 year deal. You’d likely get a 1st and a 3rd for Mike and shed $18m in cap. Resign Brown for $3-5+ incentives and now you can sign everyone else. Let Miller and Johnson shine at 3 and 4.
Sorry for thinking such an unthinkable atrocity. I love mike!
I like your philosophy but I just don’t know if a team would give us the compensation that we, as Bucs fans, would want for Evans. Others know that Evans battles injuries so I’m sure teams would low ball us.
Evans all day, everyday. Under a traditional system, Evans will be targeted more often. Under Arians before Brady, it’s Godwin. Since we have Brady for another season (and possibly more, hinted by GM Licht), then I it’s easily Evans.
In 2019, Arians implemented his “slot WR1” offense. Notice how Perriman excelled in this offense, especially when either Evans or Godwin fell to injury. Perriman revealed he can be a WR2 in this offense. Some Buc fans panicked at the prospect of not retaining Perriman last year.
In 2020, Brady made this vertical offense multi-dimensional. Brady made more use of the TEs in receiving, made more use of the intermediate game, made more use of the middle of the field for a target, and made more use of hot-read checkdowns. TE Gronk and WR Brown were on the same page with Brady on recognizing defenses and quick hot-reads. In the Super Bowl, both Gronk and AB made adjustments that gave Brady an outlet, which both resulted in TD catches. You can hear it on the mic that the assistant coaches didn’t know what AB route was running. This is why Brady vouched for AB because Brady knows AB understands the way Brady thinks.
With Evans, you get the old adage of, “You can’t teach height.” He’s the one WR that you probably do want to double cover. If it’s a 50/50 ball, then Evans’ height becomes a vast advantage and the ratio is a like 85/15 ball to Evans.
Brady is the significant factor here. Although we know he’s here for one more season, he’s the reason why the offense changed from a “Slot WR1” passing scheme to a “multi-dimensional” passing scheme. WR Brown will come vastly cheaper than Godwin. In fact, I’d rather lose Godwin to retain WR Brown and TE Gronk! We have some young receiving talent still developing in Miller, Johnson, and Watson. We have to continue developing TE Howard and TE Hudson.
I love Godwin, but Evans shows he is very impactful when on the stat sheet shows only 2 catches for 3 yards. Those 2 catches are TD’s, but he also attracts double teams and induces a lot of Defensive Pass Interferences (DPIs).
Those 2020 numbers you’re posting for Godwin are in just 11.5 games compared to 16 for Evans. Godwin wasn’t right the whole year. Saw something yesterday that Godwin had an 86% catch percentage on routes from the slot, which is God tier. Not to mention what he does in the run game. Arians uses him like a fullback and that’s not an exaggeration.
And Perriman was a disaster in his designed role last year. In 10 games before Evans and Godwin went out he had 226 yards and 1 TD.
This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by JC5100.
You use stats to try to prop up 2020 Godwin, but use stats to denigrate Perriman playing as a WR3? hahahhaha You’re proving my point. When Perriman gets elevated to WR2, then he’s more productive than Godwin in ypc. Either you remain consistent in your use of stats or don’t use stats at all. You’re just mad jelly that I just proved that a FA WR put up just as good or better numbers than Godwin when put into an elevated WR2 position or higher.
Godwin playing 11.5 games shares what? He was injured for several games to where he couldn’t play. Although, I also didn’t include games played for 2019 because both Evans and Godwin also got injured.
But if we’re playing this stupid semantic of stats, then maybe you’ll be surprised that although Evans had the most targets, Evans has had games were he had 5 targets or less in all 16 games played.
So what does this spell out to the regular person? It supports what I just said that Brady made this offense go from “Slot WR1” passing scheme to “multi-dimensional” passing scheme.
Look at the Super Bowl. Evans had only 1 target for 1 catch for 31 yards. He did actually create more yards due to DPI’s, but it reveals that Brady will take what the defense gives. Evans accepts that because it resulted in a Super Bowl. Yet, if you leave Evans alone, then he is the most targeted WR for Brady.
This brings it all to a nice bow tie that Evans is the better WR option for the Bucs for the next five years because the next year Brady is still the QB. Brady desires a “multi-dimensional” passing scheme, not a “Slow WR1” Arians’ vertical only passing scheme.
Godwin is Evan’s favorite target. This is very tough. If I knew both players would stay healthy the rest of their career then I am taking Evans. But we do not know that and Evans is banged up quite often so I am leaning ever so slightly towards Godwin. I can be swayed either way.
Evans has missed a total of 6 games in his 7 seasons in the NFL. Starting in 105 games out of 106 total games played.
Godwin has missed a total of 6 games in his 4 seasons in the NFL. Starting in 33 games out of 58 total games played. Godwin has been injured in the past two seasons (2 in 2019, 4 in 2020) since being elevated to starter status.
At this point in their careers it’s probably Godwin because Evans has been in the league a while compared to Godwin. If we are taking their entire careers into account here then it’s Evans. Been a pretty dominant receiver during his entire career and has pretty much annihilated any receiving record for the Bucs. Evans has a few years left while Godwin is just starting his second contract.
Evans is 27 years old today, Feb 27, 2021. Godwin will be 25 years old in three more days.
That height of Evans is what makes him far more valuable as a scoring threat in the Red Zone. Now that we’re in a Brady offense that likes to methodically traverse the field rather to try to score from our own 20-yard line on every drive, Evans suits Brady’s offense best.
Last year I would have argued for Godwin, but what I think I was missing is how rare a receiver who can beat man coverage consistently like Evans is. I can’t imagine them losing Godwin, but if they absolutely had to, it’s easier to find a tough athlete who can make plays against zone than it is to find a guy who can’t be single covered.